Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nidec's 1Q results show the benefits of cost cutting and point to further gains as economies reopen and the Automotive segment recovers. </li>
<li>In the three months to June, radical cuts to SG&amp;A expenses and R&amp;D enabled a 1.7% year-on-year increase in operating profit despite a 6.6% decline in sales. Compared with 4Q of FY Mar-20, operating profit was up 81.8%. </li>
<li>All major segments except Automotive reported increases in operating profit and higher operating margins.</li>
<li>Automotive segment profit dropped 99% due to the collapse of global auto demand and costs related to the development of traction motors for electric vehicles and the acquisition of Omron Automotive Electronics.</li>
<li>As EV motor sales rise and operations are rationalized, the Automotive operating margin should rebound from near zero to 10% in FY Mar-22 and 12% in FY Mar-23. These and other gains should take consolidated operating profit back to the peak reached in FY Mar-18.</li>
<li>But this is largely in the price. The shares have risen 70% since March and projected valuations are near the top of their historical ranges.</li>
<li>By Japan Analytics' calculations, Nidec is not yet Overbought, but the risk/reward trade-off no longer seems attractive given the economic uncertainties and the age of Chairman and CEO Nagamori, who will turn 76 next month. </li>
</ul>


Nidec's 1Q results show the benefits of cost cutting and point to further gains as economies reopen and the Automotive segment recovers. 
In the three months to June, radical cuts to SG&amp;A expenses and R&amp;D enabled a 1.7% year-on-year increase in operating profit despite a 6.6% decline in sales. Compared with 4Q of FY Mar-20, operating profit was up 81.8%. 
All major segments except Automotive reported increases in operating profit and higher operating margins.
Automotive segment profit dropped 99% due to the collapse of global auto demand and costs related to the development of traction motors for electric vehicles and the acquisition of Omron Automotive Electronics.
As EV motor sales rise and operations are rationalized, the Automotive operating margin should rebound from near zero to 10% in FY Mar-22 and 12% in FY Mar-23. These and other gains should take consolidated operating profit back to the peak reached in FY Mar-18.
But this is largely in the price. The shares have risen 70% since March and projected valuations are near the top of their historical ranges.
By Japan Analytics' calculations, Nidec is not yet Overbought, but the risk/reward trade-off no longer seems attractive given the economic uncertainties and the age of Chairman and CEO Nagamori, who will turn 76 next month. 


Nidec (6594 JP): Anticipated Recovery Largely in the Price

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/271/original/2020-07-22_07-23-37.png?1595370233" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147271"></figure><p><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/268/original/2020-07-22_06-41-57.png?1595367748" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147268"></p></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/disco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15817:1" rel="noopener">DISCO 'DANCES</a>'</strong> - DISCO 'led' yesterday's results &amp; revision highlighting this part of the technology 'chain's' COVID immunity.  Rolling TTM revenues and operating profits have turned positive year-on-year for the first time in at least six quarters. Further, the initial half-year forecast (not shown above) implies this upward momentum has continued into the current quarter. Disco shares have, however, lagged its larger peers over the last twelve, six, three months and should now close some of the performance 'gap'. The SPE Peer Group is, however, the most Overbought in the market and valuations are 'full' which will temper the upside. We would not be short. For more detail, please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/scott-foster" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1134" rel="noopener">Scott Foster</a>'s April Insight - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/disco-6146-jp-preliminary-sales-report-encouraging-back-to-the-office-in-wuhan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38350" rel="noopener">Disco (6146 JP): Preliminary Sales Report Encouraging, Back to the Office in Wuhan</a>. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/269/original/File%202020-07-22%206%2056%2012.jpeg?1595368629" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147269"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>8 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 3 Positive / 3 Neutral / 2 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change: </strong>-0.6</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -3.6% Quarter YoY / -0.2% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -0.2ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 25%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>6 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 4 Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 3 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.2</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
DISCO 'DANCES' - DISCO 'led' yesterday's results &amp; revision highlighting this part of the technology 'chain's' COVID immunity.  Rolling TTM revenues and operating profits have turned positive year-on-year for the first time in at least six quarters. Further, the initial half-year forecast (not shown above) implies this upward momentum has continued into the current quarter. Disco shares have, however, lagged its larger peers over the last twelve, six, three months and should now close some of the performance 'gap'. The SPE Peer Group is, however, the most Overbought in the market and valuations are 'full' which will temper the upside. We would not be short. For more detail, please see Scott Foster's April Insight - Disco (6146 JP): Preliminary Sales Report Encouraging, Back to the Office in Wuhan. 
Source • Japan Analytics
DAILY STATS
8 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 3 Positive / 3 Neutral / 2 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -0.6

Average % Change in Revenue: -3.6% Quarter YoY / -0.2% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.2ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%
 6 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 4 Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 3 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.2


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 21st July - Disco Dances & The Nagamori Premium

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>STRESS TESTS</strong> - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.</p><p><strong>ALTMAN Z-SCORES</strong> - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  </p><p><strong>QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS</strong> - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries - <strong> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a></strong>,<strong> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a></strong>- have been excluded from this analysis. </p>

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/748/original/2020-05-16_08-18-15.png?1589584720" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133748"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>"WORSENING"</strong> - The Cabinet Office updated their Business Condition Leading Indicator for March this week, confirming the trend already apparent from our Results &amp; Revision Score data series. The correlation between the series is 0.80, with the only significant deviation occurring in 2016, Coincident conditions are assessed as "worsening" wording that is unchanged since August 2019. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/788/original/2020-05-16_12-10-50.png?1589598664" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133788"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>DECOMPOSED</strong> - Our Score is decomposed into a Results Score, an Annual Forecast/Revision Score and an Interim Forecast Revision Score.  The last two are ten-year lows; the first should join them next week. A notable limiting factor is the shortage of forecasts being made. Without this reticence, both forecast Scores would be considerably lower.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/795/original/2020-05-16_12-47-02.png?1589600841" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133795"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RETICENCE</strong> - 77% by number and 81% by value of companies with year-ends in  March, June, September, or December have already reported. Of these 2,464 companies representing ¥438 trillion of market cap, just 1,119 have issued annual forecasts for the current year, and 583 have made interim forecasts. Of all listed companies, one-third by market value are currently unable to see ahead twelve months and only 16% by value and 23% by number are prepared to look forward four-and-a-half months. This unusual degree of reticence leaves the sell-side without their regular anchoring comfort blanket.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/802/original/2020-05-16_13-27-57.png?1589605282" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133802"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>NOT CHEAP</strong> -  Even allowing for the lack of a full complement of forecasts, the market's forward multiple is at a five-year high with Net Income expected to reach levels first seen in 2015, 37% below the December 2018 peak. The ten-year peak trailing multiple was 29 on aggregate Net Income of  ¥14.6 trillion, which was ten times the 2009 trough.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/801/original/2020-05-16_14-00-16.png?1589605245" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133801"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FIDDLING ABOUT</strong> - The Bank of Japan has reduced the amount of its daily ETF program for a second time; however, intervened for the last three days of last week seemingly intent on keeping the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> above 20,000. The cumulative total of BoJ purchases represents over 5% of the Total Market Value.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/884/original/2020-05-17_12-54-22.png?1589687679" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133884"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we review some market data trends, look at the Results &amp; Revision Score trends by Sector (a 15-year timeline is shown above), apply some KPMG 'recovery analysis' to Japan and look at Friday's results and revisions.</p><div><ul>
<li>The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the <strong>490</strong> results announcements was <strong>206:45:239</strong>. The average change in Results Score was <strong>-0.2</strong>.</li>
<li>For the <strong>205</strong> revisions/initial forecasts, the split was <strong>49:10:146</strong>, and the average Revision Score was <strong>-7.5</strong>. Of the <strong>364</strong> companies declaring full-year results, <strong>47%</strong> made forecasts for the current year.</li>
<li>Fifty-one will announce today, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terumo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6708:1" rel="noopener">Terumo Corp (4543 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/komatsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1" rel="noopener">Komatsu (6301 JP).</a>
</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan Analytics"WORSENING" - The Cabinet Office updated their Business Condition Leading Indicator for March this week, confirming the trend already apparent from our Results &amp; Revision Score data series. The correlation between the series is 0.80, with the only significant deviation occurring in 2016, Coincident conditions are assessed as "worsening" wording that is unchanged since August 2019. Source • Japan AnalyticsDECOMPOSED - Our Score is decomposed into a Results Score, an Annual Forecast/Revision Score and an Interim Forecast Revision Score.  The last two are ten-year lows; the first should join them next week. A notable limiting factor is the shortage of forecasts being made. Without this reticence, both forecast Scores would be considerably lower.Source • Japan AnalyticsRETICENCE - 77% by number and 81% by value of companies with year-ends in  March, June, September, or December have already reported. Of these 2,464 companies representing ¥438 trillion of market cap, just 1,119 have issued annual forecasts for the current year, and 583 have made interim forecasts. Of all listed companies, one-third by market value are currently unable to see ahead twelve months and only 16% by value and 23% by number are prepared to look forward four-and-a-half months. This unusual degree of reticence leaves the sell-side without their regular anchoring comfort blanket.Source • Japan AnalyticsNOT CHEAP -  Even allowing for the lack of a full complement of forecasts, the market's forward multiple is at a five-year high with Net Income expected to reach levels first seen in 2015, 37% below the December 2018 peak. The ten-year peak trailing multiple was 29 on aggregate Net Income of  ¥14.6 trillion, which was ten times the 2009 trough.Source • Japan AnalyticsFIDDLING ABOUT - The Bank of Japan has reduced the amount of its daily ETF program for a second time; however, intervened for the last three days of last week seemingly intent on keeping the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) above 20,000. The cumulative total of BoJ purchases represents over 5% of the Total Market Value.Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL below, we review some market data trends, look at the Results &amp; Revision Score trends by Sector (a 15-year timeline is shown above), apply some KPMG 'recovery analysis' to Japan and look at Friday's results and revisions.
The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 490 results announcements was 206:45:239. The average change in Results Score was -0.2.
For the 205 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 49:10:146, and the average Revision Score was -7.5. Of the 364 companies declaring full-year results, 47% made forecasts for the current year.
Fifty-one will announce today, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be Softbank Group (9984 JP), Terumo Corp (4543 JP), and Komatsu (6301 JP).



🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE 18th May - "Worsening"

<ul>
<li>Nidec is responding rapidly and astutely to the COVID-19 recession, which should earn it the continued support of long-term investors.</li>
<li>Given the severity and uncertain duration of the downturn, CEO Nagamori aims to reduce costs to the point that the company can remain profitable even if sales drop by half. </li>
<li>And he has borrowed enough money to replace most of the cash spent last fiscal year on structural reform and M&amp;A.</li>
<li>On a three-year view, gearing to automotive electronics, robotics, energy efficient motors and 5G-related demand for data processing equipment should take profits back toward the peak levels reached in FY Mar-18.</li>
</ul>


Nidec is responding rapidly and astutely to the COVID-19 recession, which should earn it the continued support of long-term investors.
Given the severity and uncertain duration of the downturn, CEO Nagamori aims to reduce costs to the point that the company can remain profitable even if sales drop by half. 
And he has borrowed enough money to replace most of the cash spent last fiscal year on structural reform and M&amp;A.
On a three-year view, gearing to automotive electronics, robotics, energy efficient motors and 5G-related demand for data processing equipment should take profits back toward the peak levels reached in FY Mar-18.


Nidec (6594 JP): Astute Response to COVID-19

Japan

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

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Nidec Corp (6594 JP)

Nidec (6594 JP): Anticipated Recovery Largely in the Price

Nidec's 1Q results show the benefits of cost cutting and point to further gains as economies reopen and the Automotive segment recovers. In the...

Scott Foster

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 21st July - Disco Dances & The Nagamori Premium

DISCO 'DANCES' - DISCO 'led' yesterday's results & revision highlighting this part of the technology 'chain's' COVID immunity. Rolling TTM...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE 18th May - "Worsening"

"WORSENING" - The Cabinet Office updated their Business Condition Leading Indicator for March this week, confirming the trend already apparent from...

Campbell Gunn

Nidec (6594 JP): Astute Response to COVID-19

Nidec is responding rapidly and astutely to the COVID-19 recession, which should earn it the continued support of long-term investors. Given the...

Scott Foster

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