'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE 4th May - No Quarter

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 7th May - Yamaha, Misumi, FANCL, Workman, Nintendo

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11th May - Nissin, Seria, Mitsubishi Electric, Asahi Group

Mercari – Prospects for Achieving Profitability Next Year Have Increased Significantly

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th April - The 'Unlimited' BoJ + Panasonic, T.Yuden, Kao, Kyocera

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 23rd April - "Getting Worse Rapidly" + OBICs, TGas, Canon, Omron

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Industrials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/679/original/2020-05-01_05-31-11.png?1588278692" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130679"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div><p><strong>COMFORT BLANKET</strong> - As the politically-motivated Central Banks smother equity markets with the comfort blanket of the 'mother of all QEs', the reality of what The Economist describes as the '90% Economy' unfolds in the daily earnings and forecasts revisions announced by Japanese companies. In some cases, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>, the picture is distorted by the strength in overseas demand in February as Chinese competition was put on hold and the rest of North Asia took up the resulting 'slack'. As we have noted before, the first and second-order impacts of COVID-19 will not be revealed until the August and November results, when we expect both of our Scores to be closer to their 2009 troughs. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserves trillion-dollar rescue package will keep upward pressure on the yen as the Bank of Japan struggles to keep up.  </p><p><strong>COUNTERMEASURES</strong> - Japan's revised supplementary budget was approved yesterday, allowing for interest-free loans to businesses, tax deferrals and cash handouts to all households. The COVID crisis has also prompted Japan to engage in a bout of 'magical thinking' allowing for the rolling back or revision of many long-cherished traditions:-</p><ul>
<li>The start of the academic year will now probably be pushed back to September this year - discussions have started to make this shift permanent, finally bringing Japan into line with the rest of the world.</li>
<li>Hanko personal and corporate seals that are required to certify documents may now also be going the way of the dodo as the Keidanren business organisation has acknowledged that they 'do not meet the digital age'.</li>
</ul><hr><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/680/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2039%2027.jpeg?1588280828" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130680"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/681/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2027%2003.jpeg?1588280873" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130681"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/683/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2040%2007.jpeg?1588281553" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130683"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/682/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2031%2028.jpeg?1588280903" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130682"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • ourworldindata.org</div><p><strong>MAYDAY</strong> - Although Japan's daily case count has fallen to around 200, the medical experts advising the Japanese government are suggesting that this level will require an extension to the states of emergency (SOEs) currently operating in all prefectures beyond May 6th. Hospitals are still working at above-normal capacity, and patients are still being turned away from many hospitals. Alarmingly Japan's current eight death-doubling-days count is amongst the worst in the world. Also, excess mortality data for Tokyo suggests that, in March, there were over 60 excess deaths a week not attributed to COVID-19. The expectation is that the SOEs will be extended to Sunday, May 31st and that schools will not reopen until September. In most European countries extensive testing is one of the requisites for easing lockdown restrictions, and the UK is now ramping up testing capacity in anticipation. Japan's woeful record on testing will become a factor by the end of May. Japan's case fatality rate of 3% suggests that the number of cases could be ten times the official number.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/684/original/2020-05-01_06-41-23.png?1588282906" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130684"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>30TH APRIL -</strong> In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review Thursday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 132 results was 51:10:71; and for the 83 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 30:7:43. Of the 98 companies announcing annual results, only 43 made forecasts for the current year. The ratio of dividend cuts to increases was 5:10 with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a> being the most prominent in the former camp.</p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsCOMFORT BLANKET - As the politically-motivated Central Banks smother equity markets with the comfort blanket of the 'mother of all QEs', the reality of what The Economist describes as the '90% Economy' unfolds in the daily earnings and forecasts revisions announced by Japanese companies. In some cases, such as Nidec (6594 JP), the picture is distorted by the strength in overseas demand in February as Chinese competition was put on hold and the rest of North Asia took up the resulting 'slack'. As we have noted before, the first and second-order impacts of COVID-19 will not be revealed until the August and November results, when we expect both of our Scores to be closer to their 2009 troughs. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserves trillion-dollar rescue package will keep upward pressure on the yen as the Bank of Japan struggles to keep up.  COUNTERMEASURES - Japan's revised supplementary budget was approved yesterday, allowing for interest-free loans to businesses, tax deferrals and cash handouts to all households. The COVID crisis has also prompted Japan to engage in a bout of 'magical thinking' allowing for the rolling back or revision of many long-cherished traditions:-
The start of the academic year will now probably be pushed back to September this year - discussions have started to make this shift permanent, finally bringing Japan into line with the rest of the world.
Hanko personal and corporate seals that are required to certify documents may now also be going the way of the dodo as the Keidanren business organisation has acknowledged that they 'do not meet the digital age'.
Source • ourworldindata.orgMAYDAY - Although Japan's daily case count has fallen to around 200, the medical experts advising the Japanese government are suggesting that this level will require an extension to the states of emergency (SOEs) currently operating in all prefectures beyond May 6th. Hospitals are still working at above-normal capacity, and patients are still being turned away from many hospitals. Alarmingly Japan's current eight death-doubling-days count is amongst the worst in the world. Also, excess mortality data for Tokyo suggests that, in March, there were over 60 excess deaths a week not attributed to COVID-19. The expectation is that the SOEs will be extended to Sunday, May 31st and that schools will not reopen until September. In most European countries extensive testing is one of the requisites for easing lockdown restrictions, and the UK is now ramping up testing capacity in anticipation. Japan's woeful record on testing will become a factor by the end of May. Japan's case fatality rate of 3% suggests that the number of cases could be ten times the official number.Source • Japan Analytics30TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Thursday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 132 results was 51:10:71; and for the 83 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 30:7:43. Of the 98 companies announcing annual results, only 43 made forecasts for the current year. The ratio of dividend cuts to increases was 5:10 with Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP) being the most prominent in the former camp.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 30th April - D1Life, Toto, JR-W, CTC, Murata, Nidec, Mercari