'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 29th April - Mit.Chem, TKC, Keyence, ZOZO, Shimano. Or.Land

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 30th April - D1Life, Toto, JR-W, CTC, Murata, Nidec, Mercari

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE 4th May - No Quarter

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 22nd April - Timelines + JAL/ZOZO/Mizuno/CyberAgent

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 23rd April - "Getting Worse Rapidly" + OBICs, TGas, Canon, Omron

Q1Earnings Preview: Not As Resilient As Consensus Believes

Omron – Results Beat but China Sales Trend Is the COVID Concern

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Industrials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/058/original/2020-04-28_05-09-49.png?1588018213" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130058"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>THE 'UNLIMTED' BANK OF JAPAN - The Bank of Japan's well-telegraphed announcement that they will be free of any constraints in their purchases of fixed income securities had limited impact on the exchange rate and bond markets. In practice, the central bank is limited by the lack of availability of JGBs and yields already being current at their target rate of zero. However, the extension of the BoJ remit to cover corporate bonds and even 'household debt' did prompt short-covering of indebted deep cyclical sectors of the equity market. There were no new purchases of ETFs yesterday.FORECAST REVISION SCORE &lt; RESULTS SCORE - Our Forecast/Revision Score has been higher than our Results Score since February as companies with December year-ends released bullish forecasts for 2020. Many of these forecasts are now being revised down or, as in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon  (7751 JP)</a>, are being withdrawn.  This Score 'crossover' has been bearish for equities over the past decade, and we would require the reverse for a medium or long-term 'buy' signal for Japanese equities. One caveat is the large number of companies forgoing making initial forecasts for FY2021. Yesterday, only seventeen of the forty-four annual results declarations were accompanied by new forecasts. In the DETAIL below, we shall review Monday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 52 results was 23:5:24; and for the 50 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 22:2:26. Four companies, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stanley-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1330:1" rel="noopener">Stanley Electric (6923 JP)</a>  cut their dividends; two increased.

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE 'UNLIMTED' BANK OF JAPAN - The Bank of Japan's well-telegraphed announcement that they will be free of any constraints in their purchases of fixed income securities had limited impact on the exchange rate and bond markets. In practice, the central bank is limited by the lack of availability of JGBs and yields already being current at their target rate of zero. However, the extension of the BoJ remit to cover corporate bonds and even 'household debt' did prompt short-covering of indebted deep cyclical sectors of the equity market. There were no new purchases of ETFs yesterday.FORECAST REVISION SCORE &lt; RESULTS SCORE - Our Forecast/Revision Score has been higher than our Results Score since February as companies with December year-ends released bullish forecasts for 2020. Many of these forecasts are now being revised down or, as in the case of Canon  (7751 JP), are being withdrawn.  This Score 'crossover' has been bearish for equities over the past decade, and we would require the reverse for a medium or long-term 'buy' signal for Japanese equities. One caveat is the large number of companies forgoing making initial forecasts for FY2021. Yesterday, only seventeen of the forty-four annual results declarations were accompanied by new forecasts. In the DETAIL below, we shall review Monday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 52 results was 23:5:24; and for the 50 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 22:2:26. Four companies, including Stanley Electric (6923 JP)  cut their dividends; two increased. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th April - The 'Unlimited' BoJ + Panasonic, T.Yuden, Kao, Kyocera