Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>BOJ sows confusion with hawkish and dovish statements regarding its tightening policy. On a USD-basis the Japan market failed again to break its long-term resistance indicating a "Dead Cat Bounce".</li>
<li>Auto and Semiconductor sectors pressured by US trade policies and Trading Companies are affected by JPY strength.  US rejection of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a>merger affects Japan steel sector.</li>
<li>Higher domestic yields is a catalyst to reverse the large money flows from Japan during the Kuroda years.</li>
</ul>


BOJ sows confusion with hawkish and dovish statements regarding its tightening policy. On a USD-basis the Japan market failed again to break its long-term resistance indicating a "Dead Cat Bounce".
Auto and Semiconductor sectors pressured by US trade policies and Trading Companies are affected by JPY strength.  US rejection of Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)merger affects Japan steel sector.
Higher domestic yields is a catalyst to reverse the large money flows from Japan during the Kuroda years.


JAPAN:  No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

<ul>
<li>Japan's markets have again failed to break to new highs creating a potential for a double-top pattern.</li>
<li>Trump's policies which target lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will put pressure on Japan's markets as can be seen from the high correlation between the JPY and TPX.</li>
<li>Sectors such as trading companies, autos and semiconductors could see the most pressure under a Trump presidency.</li>
</ul>


Japan's markets have again failed to break to new highs creating a potential for a double-top pattern.
Trump's policies which target lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will put pressure on Japan's markets as can be seen from the high correlation between the JPY and TPX.
Sectors such as trading companies, autos and semiconductors could see the most pressure under a Trump presidency.


Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Hamamatsu Photonics Kk / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$190m via selling over a 4% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hamamatsu-photonics-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14074:1" rel="noopener">Hamamatsu Photonics Kk (6965 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>This is another cross-shareholding unwind and hence, won’t be a huge surprise. Although given the recent share price weakness, the timing appears peculiar.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) aims to raise around US$190m via selling over a 4% stake in Hamamatsu Photonics Kk (6965 JP).
This is another cross-shareholding unwind and hence, won’t be a huge surprise. Although given the recent share price weakness, the timing appears peculiar.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Hamamatsu Photonics Placement - Peculiar Timing

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$330m via selling around 3.6% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP).</a>
</li>
<li>This will be another cross-shareholding unwind and hence, won’t be a huge surprise, although the stock hasn’t been doing particularly well lately.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$330m via selling around 3.6% of Yamaha Motor (7272 JP).

This will be another cross-shareholding unwind and hence, won’t be a huge surprise, although the stock hasn’t been doing particularly well lately.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Yamaha Motors Placement - A Relatively Small Cross-Shareholding Unwind

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weride-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39905:1" rel="noopener">WeRide (WRD US)</a>, a provider of autonomous driving products and services, seeks to raise up to US$119 million through a Nasdaq IPO and US$321 million through a concurrent private placement.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/weride-wrd-us-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:154629" rel="noopener">WeRide (WRD US) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on a volatile revenue profile, high customer concentration risk, widening losses that raise doubts on the path to profitability, elongated cash collection cycles and cash burn.</li>
</ul>



WeRide (WRD US), a provider of autonomous driving products and services, seeks to raise up to US$119 million through a Nasdaq IPO and US$321 million through a concurrent private placement.
In WeRide (WRD US) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on a volatile revenue profile, high customer concentration risk, widening losses that raise doubts on the path to profitability, elongated cash collection cycles and cash burn.


Japan

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The Company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

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Nissan Motor (7201 JP)

JAPAN: No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

BOJ sends mixed signals on its pace of tightening as the JPY strengthens. Auto, semi and trading company sectors continue to be under pressure. A...

David Mudd

Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

We pointed out that Japan's semi industry may be at risk as part of the "Trump Trade" sentiment. It turns out that Biden has already thrown...

David Mudd

Hamamatsu Photonics Placement - Peculiar Timing

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) aims to raise around US$190m via selling over a 4% stake in Hamamatsu Photonics Kk (6965 JP). The timing of the selldown...

Sumeet Singh

Yamaha Motors Placement - A Relatively Small Cross-Shareholding Unwind

A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$330m via selling around 3.6% of Yamaha Motor (7272 JP). In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

WeRide (WRD US) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on a volatile revenue profile, high customer concentration risk, widening losses that raise doubts on the path to...

Arun George

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