Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Once again, the profit from Long Short basket trading has also been significant this time. The returns were quite juicy even if the period is shortened to From-February. </li>
<li>The critical question now is whether the juice remains until the effective date. From what I can see, there is still some juice left.</li>
<li>This is because it is generally observed that the flow trading window for this event tends to continue beyond the effective date.</li>
</ul>


Once again, the profit from Long Short basket trading has also been significant this time. The returns were quite juicy even if the period is shortened to From-February. 
The critical question now is whether the juice remains until the effective date. From what I can see, there is still some juice left.
This is because it is generally observed that the flow trading window for this event tends to continue beyond the effective date.


KOSPI Size Indexes Migrants: Official Results & Price Performances So Far

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices ends 28 February. The results will be announced early March and implemented at the close on 9 March.</li>
<li>We see 5 migrations between MidCap and LargeCap, 8 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new adds to MidCap, and 11 migrations from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices ends 28 February. The results will be announced early March and implemented at the close on 9 March.
We see 5 migrations between MidCap and LargeCap, 8 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new adds to MidCap, and 11 migrations from MidCap to SmallCap.
Stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.


KOSPI Size Indices - Potential Changes in March

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Oasis Corp is EV of 605 billion won, implied market cap of 788 billion won, and target price of 24,847 won per share. </li>
<li>This is 18.5% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative View of the Oasis Corp IPO.</li>
<li>The end of COVID pandemic and relaxed regulations for hypermarkets in early morning delivery services are likely to have greater negative impact on Oasis Corp. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Oasis Corp is EV of 605 billion won, implied market cap of 788 billion won, and target price of 24,847 won per share. 
This is 18.5% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative View of the Oasis Corp IPO.
The end of COVID pandemic and relaxed regulations for hypermarkets in early morning delivery services are likely to have greater negative impact on Oasis Corp. 


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss an update of pair trade between Emart (long) and Coupang (short). </li>
<li>Back on 1 August 2022, we recommended a pair trade between E Mart Inc (139480 KS) (long) and Coupang (CPNG US) (short).</li>
<li>This pair trade has worked well in the past five months and we continue to like this pair trade (long Emart and short Coupang).</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss an update of pair trade between Emart (long) and Coupang (short). 
Back on 1 August 2022, we recommended a pair trade between E Mart Inc (139480 KS) (long) and Coupang (CPNG US) (short).
This pair trade has worked well in the past five months and we continue to like this pair trade (long Emart and short Coupang).


An Update to Our Pair Trade Between Emart & Coupang

<ul>
<li>To MID migrants: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12179:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Group (002790 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/e-mart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6993:1" rel="noopener">E Mart (139480 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iljin-materials-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7709:1" rel="noopener">Iljin Materials (020150 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanjin-kal-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19086:1" rel="noopener">Hanjin KAL (180640 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oci-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1904:1" rel="noopener">OCI (010060 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lx-semicon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20670:1" rel="noopener">LX Semicon (108320 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socar-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29693:1" rel="noopener">SOCAR (403550 KS)</a>
</li>
<li>To LARGE migrants: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-rotem-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1554:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Rotem (064350 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-shilla-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:107:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Shilla (008770 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gs-retail-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3867:1" rel="noopener">GS Retail (007070 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cs-wind-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4883:1" rel="noopener">CS Wind (112610 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-international-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5954:1" rel="noopener">Posco International (047050 KS)</a> </li>
<li>This time, the degree of predictability is high as the MC gap widened from an early point. So, we should consider building our position in phases from early next month.</li>
</ul>


To MID migrants: Amorepacific Group (002790 KS), E Mart (139480 KS), Iljin Materials (020150 KS), Hanjin KAL (180640 KS), OCI (010060 KS), LX Semicon (108320 KS), and SOCAR (403550 KS)

To LARGE migrants: Hyundai Rotem (064350 KS), Hotel Shilla (008770 KS), GS Retail (007070 KS), CS Wind (112610 KS), and Posco International (047050 KS) 
This time, the degree of predictability is high as the MC gap widened from an early point. So, we should consider building our position in phases from early next month.


KOSPI Size Index: Early Preview at One Fourth into Screening Period

South Korea

Dongsuh Companies Inc. imports, manufactures, processes, markets and distributes general food products such as vegetable cooking oils. The Company also produces packaging materials and ceramic products including food and oil containers. Dongsuh has a cooperative relationship with Kraft Foods Inc.

BGF Retail Co., Ltd. operates convenience stores. The Company retails delicatessen, sweets, snacks, beverages, tobacco, and other related products. BGF Retail markets its products throughout South Korea.

GS Retail Co., Ltd. operates a chain of retail stores. The Company provides beauty and skincare products, candles, gifts, perfumes, ornaments, bathroom accessories, and other products. GS Retail serves its customers in the Republic of South Korea.

Hyundai G.F. Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a office furniture distribution company. The Company produces built in furniture, upcycling waste materials bottles furniture, wood furniture, and other related products. Hyundai G.F. Holdings also offers food, information and technology, groceries sale, and food materials distribution services.

BGF Retail Co. Ltd. operates convenience store chains called CU in South Korea. The Company, through company owned stores or franchise, sells general groceries such as food and beverage.  The Company also offers ticketing, parcel pick-up, ATM machine and bill payment service.

CJ Freshway Corp. markets and provides various groceries to food service companies and restaurants.  The Company also caters to company's restaurants, schools, airports, and private restaurants and processes agricultural products.

Cosmax, Inc. is a cosmetics manufacturer. The Company develops and produces a variety of cosmetics for men and women, such as basic and special skin care, makeup, hair care, and other beauty products. Cosmax manufactures its products on original equipment manufacturing (OEM) basis.

Lotte Chilsung Beverage Co., Ltd. manufactures alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages such as carbonic acid drinks, fruit juices, soybean drinks, teas, and traditional health beverages.

Ottogi Corporation manufactures food seasonings and instant food, such as mayonnaise, ketchup, salad dressing, sesame and cooking oils, and instant curry. The Company also produces frozen salads, fruit preservatives, instant noodles, and canned tuna.

Hite Jinro Co., Ltd. specializes in manufacturing Soju, vodka-like distilled Korean liquor. The Company also produces and sells other alcoholic beverages, such as wine, whiskey, and ginseng liquors as well as non-alcoholic beverages including mineral water and soft drinks. In addition, Jinro also provides information processing and financial services as well as construction services.

LIFE CORPORATION operates a supermarket chain mainly in Kansai and Kanto areas. The Company sells mainly groceries, and also clothing, and household utensils.

Shenzhen Agricultural Products Co., Ltd. operates chain supermarkets and wholesale markets for agricultural products.  The Company also provides agricultural products processing and other related services.

Shenzhen Agricultural Products Co, Ltd. (000061 CH)

KANSAI SUPER MARKET LTD. is a food supermarket chain operator which mainly deals in foodstuffs, daily products, and miscellaneous goods.  The Company has markets in Hyogo and Osaka areas.

SAN-A CO., LTD. operates supermarkets, restaurants, and hotels in the Okinawa area.  The Company sells groceries, clothing, and household items.  San-A also operates restaurants, including Japanese and Italian restaurants, coffee shops, and food courts.

COFCO Joycome Foods Limited engages in animal meat production. The Company produces, processes, distributes, and sells fresh pork, pork products, and animal feeds. COFCO Joycome Foods also operates and manages slaughterhouse throughout China.

HelloFresh SE provides online food services. The Company offers a subscription service in which customers receive a weekly box of recipes and meal ideas. HelloFresh also provides ice packs, plastic packaging, meat packing, insulation materials, and other related products. HelloFresh serves customers worldwide.

The Spar Group Limited is a wholesale distributor of goods and services to independently owned SPAR, TOPS and Build It stores. The Company is also involved in the management of voluntary trading groups.

Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. operates pharmaceutical stores. The Company retails Chinese medicines, western medicines, and other products. Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group also provides medical equipment.

Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group (002727 CH)

VALOR HOLDINGS CO., LTD. is a chain store operator which handles perishables, general foods, and daily-use sundry goods.  The Company is active to diversify into new business including home centers, restaurants, fitness clubs, and pet shops. Valor is based in Gifu area and moving into Aichi, Kanagawa, and Tokyo.

PT Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk operates a chain of retail stores.  The Company operates convenience stores in Indonesia.

E-MART Inc. operates E-Mart discount stores. The Company retails food, clothing, household goods, electronics, and other items through several branch stores.

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E Mart Inc (139480 KS)

KOSPI Size Indexes Migrants: Official Results & Price Performances So Far

KRX announced the official results of the KOPSI Size Indexes migration for the March rebalancing. This post offers key takeaways and trading...

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI Size Indices - Potential Changes in March

The review period for the March rebal of the KOSPI Size Indices ends on 28 February. We see quite a lot of potential migrations. Some stocks could...

Brian Freitas

Oasis Corp IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Oasis Corp is implied market cap of 788 billion won, and target price of 24,847 won per share, which is 18.5% lower than...

Douglas Kim

An Update to Our Pair Trade Between Emart & Coupang

We discuss an update of pair trade between Emart (long) and Coupang (short). Emart is a value stock with its shares trading at 0.2x P/B (2023)....

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Index: Early Preview at One Fourth into Screening Period

This post screens migrant candidates of the KOSPI Size Index Series, scheduled for rebalancing in March, as we are one-fourth into the screening...

Sanghyun Park

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