Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>In game industry, distribution channels have lost bargaining power over developers.</li>
<li>All BILI's video related businesses grew strongly in 1Q21.</li>
<li>We do not see any signs that the company will break even in the near future.</li>
<li>We set a downside of 17% and a price target of HK$80.</li>
<li>Also see the business change last year at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bilibili-bili-business-breakout-an-story-of-what-bili-was-and-will-be" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48902" rel="noopener">Bilibili (BILI): Business Breakout, An Story of What BILI Was and Will Be</a>.</li>
</ul>


In game industry, distribution channels have lost bargaining power over developers.
All BILI's video related businesses grew strongly in 1Q21.
We do not see any signs that the company will break even in the near future.
We set a downside of 17% and a price target of HK$80.
Also see the business change last year at Bilibili (BILI): Business Breakout, An Story of What BILI Was and Will Be.


Bilibili (BILI): 1Q21, Weak Game, Strong Video, and Endless Loss

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ximalaya-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33232:1" rel="noopener">Ximalaya (XIMA US), which</a> is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, is getting ready to complete its IPO in the United States in the next several weeks. Ximalaya is the largest online audio platform in China in terms of MAU. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinese-podcast-startup-ximalaya-files-us-ipo-2021-04-30/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ximalaya</a> was last valued at $3.7 billion in July 2018. The main underwriters of the IPO include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, and CICC. The company generated sales of 4.1 billion RMB (up 51.3% YoY) and gross profit of 2.0 billion RMB (up 70.3% YoY). From 2018 to 2020, the company's sales increased by 65.7% CAGR. The company's sales continued to accelerate by 65.2% YoY in 1Q 2021. The increasing sales growth has been accompanied by improving profit margins.

Ximalaya (XIMA US), which is backed by Tencent (700 HK), is getting ready to complete its IPO in the United States in the next several weeks. Ximalaya is the largest online audio platform in China in terms of MAU. Ximalaya was last valued at $3.7 billion in July 2018. The main underwriters of the IPO include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, and CICC. The company generated sales of 4.1 billion RMB (up 51.3% YoY) and gross profit of 2.0 billion RMB (up 70.3% YoY). From 2018 to 2020, the company's sales increased by 65.7% CAGR. The company's sales continued to accelerate by 65.2% YoY in 1Q 2021. The increasing sales growth has been accompanied by improving profit margins.

Ximalaya IPO Preview - Creating the Joe Rogans of China

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Headline Developments The battle is on between Fortnite developer Epic Games (private) and Apple (AAPL) - a David and Goliath case which, in a nutshell, will ask whether Apple is acting fairly by charging developers a 15-30% fee for all revenues made via subscriptions and in-app purchases.

Headline Developments The battle is on between Fortnite developer Epic Games (private) and Apple (AAPL) - a David and Goliath case which, in a nutshell, will ask whether Apple is acting fairly by charging developers a 15-30% fee for all revenues made via subscriptions and in-app purchases.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Amazon’s businesses are booming. Retail is on a $400B runrate growing 45%. AWS $54B, growing 32%, Advertising $25B, growing 73%. We think the company is worth $3T or $6000 a share.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Amazon’s businesses are booming. Retail is on a $400B runrate growing 45%. AWS $54B, growing 32%, Advertising $25B, growing 73%. We think the company is worth $3T or $6000 a share.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Amazon 1Q21: The Fastest Growing Business in the World

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

The past nine months have been a wild ride. The industry has largely avoided the disruption of Covid-19 but NTT’s ¥4 trillion DoCoMo restructuring and regulatory-driven price reductions have shaken things up whilst competition from Rakuten is likely to heat up as it raises cash and accelerates investment. Mobile revenues will be down but that can be made up in other areas and whilst profitability in FY21 is flat at best and likely down modestly, shareholder returns are stable to growing.  NTT and KDDI are top picks with Softbank offering modest upside whilst we are more cautious on Rakuten after a 46% YTD run which largely captures the upside potential a more competitive mobile service offers.

The past nine months have been a wild ride. The industry has largely avoided the disruption of Covid-19 but NTT’s ¥4 trillion DoCoMo restructuring and regulatory-driven price reductions have shaken things up whilst competition from Rakuten is likely to heat up as it raises cash and accelerates investment. Mobile revenues will be down but that can be made up in other areas and whilst profitability in FY21 is flat at best and likely down modestly, shareholder returns are stable to growing.  NTT and KDDI are top picks with Softbank offering modest upside whilst we are more cautious on Rakuten after a 46% YTD run which largely captures the upside potential a more competitive mobile service offers.

Japan Telecom Sector: FY21 Will Be Tougher and More Competitive but Returns Can Still Rise

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

Bilibili (BILI): 1Q21, Weak Game, Strong Video, and Endless Loss

In game industry, distribution channels have lost bargaining power over developers. All BILI's video related businesses grew strongly in 1Q21. We...

Ming Lu

Ximalaya IPO Preview - Creating the Joe Rogans of China

Ximalaya is the largest online audio platform in China which is getting ready to complete its IPO in the next several weeks.

Douglas Kim

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #30

Headline Developments The battle is on between Fortnite developer Epic Games (private) and Apple (AAPL) - a David and Goliath case which, in a...

Granite Bay Capital

Amazon 1Q21: The Fastest Growing Business in the World

Amazon’s businesses are booming. Retail is on a $400B runrate growing 45%. AWS $54B, growing 32%, Advertising $25B, growing 73%. We think the...

Aaron Gabin

Japan Telecom Sector: FY21 Will Be Tougher and More Competitive but Returns Can Still Rise

FY21 will be a tough year for mobile with 5% service revenue erosion but new services provide some offset and returns to shareholders can still...

Kirk Boodry

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