Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a>.</li>
<li>Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-stock-exchange-weighted-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1" rel="noopener">TWSE INDEX</a> has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.</li>
</ul>


Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). 
Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the KOSPI2 INDEX and KOSDAQ 150 Index.
Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the TWSE INDEX has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.


Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

AAC Technologies' FY 2022 results were in line with our expectations. Total full-year revenue rose 17% y-o-y to CNY 20.6 bn, driven by increased sales of haptic and optic products on the back of strong demand from overseas customers. That said, the overall gross margin declined further to 18.3%, due to: [1] ongoing price pressure and inventory impairment for optic lens products; [2] decreased shipments of Android acoustics products, which led to greater contribution from lower-margin businesses; and [3] rising raw-material costs. AAC managed to maintain a healthy financial position, with reduced back borrowings, adequate cash balance and improved liquidity in FY 2022. The company aims to cut capex by another 10-15% in FY 2023. We view AAC's credit profile as sound.

  AAC Technologies' FY 2022 results were in line with our expectations. Total full-year revenue rose 17% y-o-y to CNY 20.6 bn, driven by increased sales of haptic and optic products on the back of strong demand from overseas customers. That said, the overall gross margin declined further to 18.3%, due to: [1] ongoing price pressure and inventory impairment for optic lens products; [2] decreased shipments of Android acoustics products, which led to greater contribution from lower-margin businesses; and [3] rising raw-material costs.   AAC managed to maintain a healthy financial position, with reduced back borrowings, adequate cash balance and improved liquidity in FY 2022. The company aims to cut capex by another 10-15% in FY 2023. We view AAC's credit profile as sound. 

AAC Technologies - Earnings Flash - FY 2022 Results - Lucror Analytics

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

AAC Technologies Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AACs 4Q22 net profit (+12% YoY) was 5%/6% below our/consensus estimates, mainly due to widening loss from optics segment, while revenue exceeded expectations with 21% YoY growth given stronger camera modules in our view.</li><li>4Q GPM came in at 16.6%, well below expectations due to impairment of optics segment. By segment, acoustics/optics/EMD&amp;PM/Sensor revenue grew 6%/ 56%/28%/50% YoY.</li><li>Mgmt. reiterated confidence to improve profitability and efficiency in FY23E with cost control and lower CAPEX.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AACs 4Q22 net profit (+12% YoY) was 5%/6% below our/consensus estimates, mainly due to widening loss from optics segment, while revenue exceeded expectations with 21% YoY growth given stronger camera modules in our view.4Q GPM came in at 16.6%, well below expectations due to impairment of optics segment. By segment, acoustics/optics/EMD&amp;PM/Sensor revenue grew 6%/ 56%/28%/50% YoY.Mgmt. reiterated confidence to improve profitability and efficiency in FY23E with cost control and lower CAPEX.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AAC Tech (2018 HK) – 4Q22 slightly below; recovery remains bumpy

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in June 2023.</li>
<li>According to our estimation, there could be one ADD/DEL for the HSTECH in June 2023 triggering total one-way index flows of US$238mn.</li>
<li>The final index changes along with indicative capping and index weights will be published in Mid/Late-May 2023.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in June 2023.
According to our estimation, there could be one ADD/DEL for the HSTECH in June 2023 triggering total one-way index flows of US$238mn.
The final index changes along with indicative capping and index weights will be published in Mid/Late-May 2023.


Quiddity Flow Expectations HSTECH Jun 23: New Oriental Education IN; AAC Technologies OUT

<ul><li>AAC will report 4Q22 results on 23 Mar. We estimate 4Q revenue/net profit to increase 16%/18% YoY to RMB 5,579mn/250mn, slightly below consensus, mainly driven by stronger demand in Apple‘s acoustics/haptics and Toyo’s PM sales contribution despite pressure in optics segment.</li><li>By segment, we expect acoustics/ED&amp;PM/optics to grow 2%/31%/29% YoY in 4Q22E.</li><li>Looking ahead, given Android’s ongoing inventory destocking and Apple’s weak seasonality in 1H23E, we believe demand weakness and loss-making optics segment will drag earnings recovery for AAC in the near term. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AAC will report 4Q22 results on 23 Mar. We estimate 4Q revenue/net profit to increase 16%/18% YoY to RMB 5,579mn/250mn, slightly below consensus, mainly driven by stronger demand in Apple‘s acoustics/haptics and Toyo’s PM sales contribution despite pressure in optics segment.By segment, we expect acoustics/ED&amp;PM/optics to grow 2%/31%/29% YoY in 4Q22E.Looking ahead, given Android’s ongoing inventory destocking and Apple’s weak seasonality in 1H23E, we believe demand weakness and loss-making optics segment will drag earnings recovery for AAC in the near term. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AAC Tech (2018 HK) – 4Q22 Preview: earnings recovery remains bumpy; Maintain HOLD

China

AAC Technologies Holdings Inc designs, develops and manufactures a broad range of miniaturized components that include speakers, receivers and microphones in the acoustic segment and others such as haptics vibrators, RF and antennas, and optical lenses. AAC's products are found in mobile devices such as smartphones, tablets, wearables, ultrabooks, notebooks and electronic book-readers.

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AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)

Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Korea, Taiwan and Australia stocks over Q1 and highlights large increases/decreases in...

Brian Freitas

AAC Technologies - Earnings Flash - FY 2022 Results - Lucror Analytics

AAC Technologies' FY 2022 results were in line with our expectations. Total full-year revenue rose 17% y-o-y to CNY 20.6 bn, driven by increased...

Lucror Analytics

AAC Tech (2018 HK) – 4Q22 slightly below; recovery remains bumpy

AACs 4Q22 net profit (+12% YoY) was 5%/6% below our/consensus estimates, mainly due to widening loss from optics segment, while revenue exceeded...

CMB International

Quiddity Flow Expectations HSTECH Jun 23: New Oriental Education IN; AAC Technologies OUT

According to my estimates, New Oriental Education & Technology Group (9901 HK) could be added and AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) could be...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

AAC Tech (2018 HK) – 4Q22 Preview: earnings recovery remains bumpy; Maintain HOLD

AAC will report 4Q22 results on 23 Mar. We estimate 4Q revenue/net profit to increase 16%/18% YoY to RMB 5,579mn/250mn, slightly below consensus

CMB International

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