Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The JPX Nikkei 400 index rebalance will take place on Wednesday, MSIC on Thursday and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI on Friday.</li>
<li>There are review cutoffs for the MVIS family of indices, and multiple announcements of changes to various indices during the week.</li>
<li>There were inflows to mainland China ETFs, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:282:1" rel="noopener">iShares India ETF (INDA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32064:1" rel="noopener">Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares EmergingMarkets ex China (EMXC)</a> while there were outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The JPX Nikkei 400 index rebalance will take place on Wednesday, MSIC on Thursday and HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI on Friday.
There are review cutoffs for the MVIS family of indices, and multiple announcements of changes to various indices during the week.
There were inflows to mainland China ETFs, iShares India ETF (INDA), Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN) and iShares EmergingMarkets ex China (EMXC) while there were outflows for iShares Emerging Markets (EEM).


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSI, HSTECH, Yuanta ETFs, China ETFs, REMX, KOSPI

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-buy-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">East Buy Holding (1797 HK)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the close on 1 September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.5% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3.4bn (US$435m). There are 4 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Short interest is 15% of float on both stocks. Short covering could take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-buy-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">East Buy Holding (1797 HK)</a> higher while providing support for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies (2018 HK)</a> closer to deletion.</li>
</ul>


As expected, East Buy Holding (1797 HK) replaces AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the close on 1 September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.5% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3.4bn (US$435m). There are 4 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
Short interest is 15% of float on both stocks. Short covering could take East Buy Holding (1797 HK) higher while providing support for AAC Technologies (2018 HK) closer to deletion.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: East Buy (1797 HK) Replaces AAC Tech (2018 HK); Big Shorts on Both Stocks

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-hstech-sep-23-flow-expectations-two-adds-dels-possible" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104332" rel="noopener">Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two ADDs/DELs Possible</a>, I discussed my initial flow expectations and potential index changes for the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The suggested (previous insight) SHORT <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technol" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK)</a> is down 10.6% vs the hedge <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health International (6618 HK)</a> in ~1.5 months. </li>
<li>In this insight, I have presented my updated flow expectations and some new trade ideas for the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


In Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two ADDs/DELs Possible, I discussed my initial flow expectations and potential index changes for the September 2023 Rebalance.
The suggested (previous insight) SHORT Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) is down 10.6% vs the hedge JD Health International (6618 HK) in ~1.5 months. 
In this insight, I have presented my updated flow expectations and some new trade ideas for the next few weeks.


Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: Last Trade Sucessful; Some New Trade Ideas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Apple Hospitality Reit / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Apple reported FY3Q23 (CY2Q23) results with EPS of US$1.26 (+5% YoY) and revenue of US$81.8bn (-1.4% YoY), which are 5% and 0.3% above consensus, mainly driven by record revenue from Service, offsetting sluggish iPhone/Mac /iPad sales.</li><li>Looking into FY4Q23E, mgmt. expects revenue to show similar YoY revenue decline (-1% YoY), while iPhone/services will accelerate YoY growth and iPad/Mac will post double-digit decline.</li><li>Given resilient outlook and iPhone’s share gain amid macro headwinds, we remain positive on Apple supply chain over Android camp in 2H23E with upcoming catalysts from iPhone 15 launch in Sep. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Apple reported FY3Q23 (CY2Q23) results with EPS of US$1.26 (+5% YoY) and revenue of US$81.8bn (-1.4% YoY), which are 5% and 0.3% above consensus, mainly driven by record revenue from Service, offsetting sluggish iPhone/Mac /iPad sales.Looking into FY4Q23E, mgmt. expects revenue to show similar YoY revenue decline (-1% YoY), while iPhone/services will accelerate YoY growth and iPad/Mac will post double-digit decline.Given resilient outlook and iPhone’s share gain amid macro headwinds, we remain positive on Apple supply chain over Android camp in 2H23E with upcoming catalysts from iPhone 15 launch in Sep. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Apple FY3Q23 In-Line on Record-High Service Offsetting Soft IPhone/Mac/IPad Sales

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>2Q23 global smartphone shipment posted 7.8% YoY decline, which narrowed from -14.6%/-18.3% YoY in 1Q23/4Q22, based on IDC.</li><li>Despite shipment weakness in 1H23, inventory level started to normalize in 2Q23, and we expect supply chain restocking will lead to positive YoY growth in 4Q23E.</li><li>In particular, China market outperformed in 2Q23 with -2.1% YoY (vs. -12.1%/-12.8% YoY in 1Q23/ 4Q22).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

2Q23 global smartphone shipment posted 7.8% YoY decline, which narrowed from -14.6%/-18.3% YoY in 1Q23/4Q22, based on IDC.Despite shipment weakness in 1H23, inventory level started to normalize in 2Q23, and we expect supply chain restocking will lead to positive YoY growth in 4Q23E.In particular, China market outperformed in 2Q23 with -2.1% YoY (vs. -12.1%/-12.8% YoY in 1Q23/ 4Q22).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology – 2Q23 Global Smartphone Shipment Decline Narrowed

China

AAC Technologies Holdings Inc designs, develops and manufactures a broad range of miniaturized components that include speakers, receivers and microphones in the acoustic segment and others such as haptics vibrators, RF and antennas, and optical lenses. AAC's products are found in mobile devices such as smartphones, tablets, wearables, ultrabooks, notebooks and electronic book-readers.

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AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSI, HSTECH, Yuanta ETFs, China ETFs, REMX, KOSPI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance: East Buy (1797 HK) Replaces AAC Tech (2018 HK); Big Shorts on Both Stocks

East Buy (1797) replaces AAC Tech (2018) in the HSTECH in Sep. Two-way turnover is 7% and the round-trip trade is US$870m. There are big shorts on...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: Last Trade Sucessful; Some New Trade Ideas

The HSTECH Sep 23 index changes could be announced after the close on Friday 18th August 2023. I expect two ADDs and two DELs during the Sep 23...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Apple FY3Q23 In-Line on Record-High Service Offsetting Soft IPhone/Mac/IPad Sales

Apple reported FY3Q23 (CY2Q23) results with EPS of US$1.26 (+5% YoY) and revenue of US$81.8bn (-1.4% YoY), which are 5% and 0.3% above consensus,...

CMB International

China Technology – 2Q23 Global Smartphone Shipment Decline Narrowed

2Q23 global smartphone shipment posted 7.8% YoY decline, which narrowed from -14.6%/-18.3% YoY in 1Q23/4Q22, based on IDC.

CMB International

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