Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei reported yesterday that Toshiba had winnowed the pool of potential partners down to four candidates. </li>
<li>All four names (Bain, CVC, Brookfield and Japan Industrial Partners/Japan Investment Corp) have been connected to Toshiba previously. </li>
<li>We wonder whether this pool of candidates points to a higher likelihood of a strategic partnership rather than a full buyout.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reported yesterday that Toshiba had winnowed the pool of potential partners down to four candidates. 
All four names (Bain, CVC, Brookfield and Japan Industrial Partners/Japan Investment Corp) have been connected to Toshiba previously. 
We wonder whether this pool of candidates points to a higher likelihood of a strategic partnership rather than a full buyout.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Yesterday I published <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nikkei-225-sep-annual-review-predictions-3-in-3-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:73209" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out</a>. Assuming correct, and we move the last 6mos of data 6mos forward, March23 Rebal is below.</li>
<li>This too is 3 in, 3 out. But it is complicated. "Required" changes would move the sector balance further out of whack. </li>
<li>And while some of the trades are "interesting", the rebal is smaller and the bigger question is "What comes after that?"
</li>
</ul>


Yesterday I published Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out. Assuming correct, and we move the last 6mos of data 6mos forward, March23 Rebal is below.
This too is 3 in, 3 out. But it is complicated. "Required" changes would move the sector balance further out of whack. 
And while some of the trades are "interesting", the rebal is smaller and the bigger question is "What comes after that?"



Nikkei 225 March 2023 Rebal On The Follow - Predictions (3 In, 3 Out) & Problems

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 Annual Review is in September based on end-July data. Jumping the gun, I propose 3 additions and 3 deletions with granular data and details offered per sector.</li>
<li>I see ¥600bn to buy and a funding trade of 99% of that. There are 15+ names with more than 1 day of ADV to sell (funding only).</li>
<li>The impact on Real World Float is non-negligible. One name in particular is deserving of attention. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 Annual Review is in September based on end-July data. Jumping the gun, I propose 3 additions and 3 deletions with granular data and details offered per sector.
I see ¥600bn to buy and a funding trade of 99% of that. There are 15+ names with more than 1 day of ADV to sell (funding only).
The impact on Real World Float is non-negligible. One name in particular is deserving of attention. 


Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanemi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19614:1" rel="noopener">Kanemi Co Ltd (2669 JP)</a>'s tender Offer, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glory-star-new-media-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33080" rel="noopener">Glory Star New Media Group Holdings (GSMG US)</a>'s underwhelming MBO.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:439:1" rel="noopener">Genting Singapore (GENS SP)</a> </li>
</ul>


There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals this week: Kanemi Co Ltd (2669 JP)'s tender Offer, and Glory Star New Media Group Holdings (GSMG US)'s underwhelming MBO.
Key updates took place for: AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU), Link Administration (LNK AU) &amp; Genting Singapore (GENS SP) 


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Kanemi, AGL, Link Admin, Genting Singapore, Glory Star Media

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>Tianqi managed to pull off the largest HK IPO so far this year, a good listing could see a pickup in other large deals.</li>
<li>For placements, SK IE couldn't hold on to its deal price, while Ming Yang kicked off what might be a busy GDR season.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
Tianqi managed to pull off the largest HK IPO so far this year, a good listing could see a pickup in other large deals.
For placements, SK IE couldn't hold on to its deal price, while Ming Yang kicked off what might be a busy GDR season.


ECM Weekly (10th Jul 2022) -Tianqi, Thai Life, TPG, SK IE, Weilong, Emperador, Soosan, SoCar, Deewin

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba – The Bidders Emerge

We wonder whether the pool of partner candidates disclosed by Nikkei points to a higher likelihood of a strategic partnership rather than a full...

Mio Kato

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Rebal On The Follow - Predictions (3 In, 3 Out) & Problems

If we assume the Sep-22 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions, then we look to Mar-23. 3 more in and out. Then it starts getting weird as Auto Inclusions...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out

The September Nikkei 225 Rebal announcement is ~ 6 weeks away. Assuming the current plans go through, I see three adds, three deletes. The adds are...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Kanemi, AGL, Link Admin, Genting Singapore, Glory Star Media

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

ECM Weekly (10th Jul 2022) -Tianqi, Thai Life, TPG, SK IE, Weilong, Emperador, Soosan, SoCar, Deewin

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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