Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The JIP TOB for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> is here. Finally. It's still too low. Since the announcement, when it was too low, peers are up a lot, and memory looks healthier.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a> selling Three Exchange Square sounds purely speculative. At best. But it would have a bigly impact on Hong Kong Office sentiment if true. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex (1605 JP)</a> reported 1H results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback. The mechanics are the same. The impact is a bit different, but it's worth looking at.</li>
</ul>


The JIP TOB for Toshiba (6502 JP) is here. Finally. It's still too low. Since the announcement, when it was too low, peers are up a lot, and memory looks healthier.

Hongkong Land (HKL SP) selling Three Exchange Square sounds purely speculative. At best. But it would have a bigly impact on Hong Kong Office sentiment if true. 

Inpex (1605 JP) reported 1H results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback. The mechanics are the same. The impact is a bit different, but it's worth looking at.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hongkong Land, Inpex, L'Occitane

<ul>
<li>I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silvercorp-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25818:1" rel="noopener">Silvercorp Metals (SVM CN)</a> scrip Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyoden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7002:1" rel="noopener">Kyoden Co Ltd (6881 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals this week: Silvercorp Metals (SVM CN) scrip Offer for Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU); and Kyoden Co Ltd (6881 JP)'s Tender Offer. 
Key updates took place for Invocare Ltd (IVC AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM), and Eoflow (294090 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: EOFlow, Invocare, Estia, Metro Pacific, Orecorp, Kyoden

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The data for the Nikkei 225 Rebalance is cemented as of 31 July 2023. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a> looks like a shoo-in. The DELETEs are obvious too.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> doesn't get a cap (yet). But the other ADDs are a real question. It is a matter of interpreting the methodology and qualitative aspects. And FLOAT.</li>
<li>One way, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari (4385)</a> are ADDs. Another way, it looks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453)</a>. FLOAT IS A PROBLEM ANYWAY.</li>
</ul>


The data for the Nikkei 225 Rebalance is cemented as of 31 July 2023. Lasertec Corp (6920 JP) looks like a shoo-in. The DELETEs are obvious too.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) doesn't get a cap (yet). But the other ADDs are a real question. It is a matter of interpreting the methodology and qualitative aspects. And FLOAT.
One way, Socionext (6526) and Mercari (4385) are ADDs. Another way, it looks like Nitori Holdings (9843) and ZOZO Inc (3092) or Ryohin Keikaku (7453). FLOAT IS A PROBLEM ANYWAY.


Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Review - Not An Easy Rebal 🤨

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, JIP finally announced its Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> as discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jip-tender-offer-for-toshiba-6502-finally-here" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:109849" rel="noopener">JIP Tender Offer for Toshiba (6502) Finally Here</a> </li>
<li>I got a few questions this morning on the earnings call comments from Chairman Watanabe regarding what might happen if a Kioxia Transaction were announced mid-JIP Tender.</li>
<li>My assumption before, during, and after, is that the Board wants this deal done. And doesn't really want to take any responsibility for pushing any more.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, JIP finally announced its Tender Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) as discussed in JIP Tender Offer for Toshiba (6502) Finally Here 
I got a few questions this morning on the earnings call comments from Chairman Watanabe regarding what might happen if a Kioxia Transaction were announced mid-JIP Tender.
My assumption before, during, and after, is that the Board wants this deal done. And doesn't really want to take any responsibility for pushing any more.


Toshiba (6502) Tender Offer - Kioxia Optionality

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) will launch the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> tender offer of JPY4,620 per share from 8 August to 20 September.</li>
<li>The Board has reaffirmed its recommendation to accept the offer. JIP’s inability to raise its bid is used as an excuse to ignore the material peer rerating and unattractive terms.</li>
<li>The 1Q results undermine the Board’s view of an overstated DCF and show its unwillingness to entertain a potential Kioxia merger as a superior alternative, increasing deal risks. </li>
</ul>


Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) will launch the Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) tender offer of JPY4,620 per share from 8 August to 20 September.
The Board has reaffirmed its recommendation to accept the offer. JIP’s inability to raise its bid is used as an excuse to ignore the material peer rerating and unattractive terms.
The 1Q results undermine the Board’s view of an overstated DCF and show its unwillingness to entertain a potential Kioxia merger as a superior alternative, increasing deal risks. 


Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Launches, 1Q Results Increase Deal Risks

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hongkong Land, Inpex, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: EOFlow, Invocare, Estia, Metro Pacific, Orecorp, Kyoden

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Review - Not An Easy Rebal 🤨

The Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Periodic Review is problematic. For the first time under the new rules we have "Serious Rule Interpretation Issues." Then...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) Tender Offer - Kioxia Optionality

Questions have been raised about "what happens if a Kioxia deal comes during the TOB" (for Toshiba). The answer will obviously be "it depends" but...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Launches, 1Q Results Increase Deal Risks

The 1Q results undermine the Board’s view of an overstated DCF and show its unwillingness to entertain a potential Kioxia merger as a superior...

Arun George

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