Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Nvidia surpasses $3 trillion valuation, a first in semiconductor industry</li><li>Company's rapid growth raises concerns about stock market dynamics</li><li>Debate on Nvidia's dominance in AI computing and comparisons to past tech industry booms.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Nvidia surpasses $3 trillion valuation, a first in semiconductor industryCompany's rapid growth raises concerns about stock market dynamicsDebate on Nvidia's dominance in AI computing and comparisons to past tech industry booms.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 73: Nvidia's Moment, and The "Platformization" of GPUs

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Mega cap stocks like Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft surpass lofty market expectations, in the latest earnings season leading to continued rallies. </li>
<li>Profits from AI innovations are accumulating predominantly at the bottom of the supply chain, benefiting large hardware and cloud service providers. </li>
<li>Smaller tech companies, including Salesforce, MongoDB, and Dell, have experienced sharp corrections due to lofty expectations and their limited capacity to generate significant AI revenue.</li>
</ul>


Mega cap stocks like Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft surpass lofty market expectations, in the latest earnings season leading to continued rallies. 
Profits from AI innovations are accumulating predominantly at the bottom of the supply chain, benefiting large hardware and cloud service providers. 
Smaller tech companies, including Salesforce, MongoDB, and Dell, have experienced sharp corrections due to lofty expectations and their limited capacity to generate significant AI revenue.


Mega Caps Thrive But Other Tech Firms Are Punished for Lack of AI-Linked Earnings Potential

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA deploys a three-pronged strategy to support the rapidly growing AI ecosystem. First, Corporate Investments. Second, NVentures. Third, NVIDIA Inception.</li>
<li>NVentures supports innovators who are deeply relevant to NVIDIA. NVentures aims to produce solid financial returns while growing the ecosystem.</li>
<li>NVIDIA participated in 35 deals in 2023 (6x more than in 2022). It has been more active than firm like Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia.</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA deploys a three-pronged strategy to support the rapidly growing AI ecosystem. First, Corporate Investments. Second, NVentures. Third, NVIDIA Inception.
NVentures supports innovators who are deeply relevant to NVIDIA. NVentures aims to produce solid financial returns while growing the ecosystem.
NVIDIA participated in 35 deals in 2023 (6x more than in 2022). It has been more active than firm like Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia.


Unpacking NVIDIA's NVentures; When a Doctor Gets Clinical On Early Stage Investments

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>There is US$1bn to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> while there will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>. </li>
<li>The selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> will offset part of the potential passive buying from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and other similar ETFs.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
There is US$1bn to sell in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) while there will be passive buying in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and Intel Corp (INTC US). 
The selling in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will offset part of the potential passive buying from Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and other similar ETFs.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

<ul>
<li>Firms that split their shares show an avg. return of +25.4% one year after split. That’s more than 2x the average return of the S&amp;P 500 during those periods. </li>
<li>Critically, returns post stock splits are mainly seen from announcement to actual split date. Mega caps have shown 9.3% absolute returns 12 months post split. Be cautious of misleading averages.</li>
<li>On relative terms (v/s S&amp;P500) price returns were down 6.3% 12-months after stock splits. All splits generated negative returns except for Tesla in 2020.</li>
</ul>


Firms that split their shares show an avg. return of +25.4% one year after split. That’s more than 2x the average return of the S&amp;P 500 during those periods. 
Critically, returns post stock splits are mainly seen from announcement to actual split date. Mega caps have shown 9.3% absolute returns 12 months post split. Be cautious of misleading averages.
On relative terms (v/s S&amp;P500) price returns were down 6.3% 12-months after stock splits. All splits generated negative returns except for Tesla in 2020.


Splits Amplify Stock Prices & Stoke Volatility; What Next for NVIDIA After Upsetting the Apple Cart?

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Episode 73: Nvidia's Moment, and The "Platformization" of GPUs

Nvidia's market valuation has surged past $3 trillion, prompting debate over the sustainability of its growth and whether it represents a new era...

The Circuit

Mega Caps Thrive But Other Tech Firms Are Punished for Lack of AI-Linked Earnings Potential

Amidst a robust AI-driven rally led by industry giants, other tech firms face headwinds as they struggle to capitalize on AI hype; recalibration of...

Mint Finance

Unpacking NVIDIA's NVentures; When a Doctor Gets Clinical On Early Stage Investments

NVIDIA became the world's most valuable company on Tuesday. It share prices roared to a high of USD 135.58 marking a market capitalisation of USD...

Mint Finance

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

Capping changes in June result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.2% and in a one-way trade of US$1.16bn. There is US$1bn to sell in NVIDIA and...

Brian Freitas

Splits Amplify Stock Prices & Stoke Volatility; What Next for NVIDIA After Upsetting the Apple Cart?

Stock splits historically fuel price rise and positive returns. But not always as is evident from recent stock splits. Volatility expansion is more...

Mint Finance

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