Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Sam Altman is reportedly looking to raise $5 to $7 trillion for a semiconductor project, but it is unclear who he is talking to or how realistic this goal is.</li><li>The speculation is that Altman and OpenAI may be in negotiations with Nvidia over purchasing their chips, but the terms offered were not satisfactory, leading to Altman's desire to build their own chips.</li><li>There are concerns about the feasibility of raising such a large amount of money and finding the necessary talent to undertake this project. Intel may be open to partnering with Altman, but the investment potential and business viability are uncertain.</li></ul>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Sam Altman is reportedly looking to raise $5 to $7 trillion for a semiconductor project, but it is unclear who he is talking to or how realistic this goal is.The speculation is that Altman and OpenAI may be in negotiations with Nvidia over purchasing their chips, but the terms offered were not satisfactory, leading to Altman's desire to build their own chips.There are concerns about the feasibility of raising such a large amount of money and finding the necessary talent to undertake this project. Intel may be open to partnering with Altman, but the investment potential and business viability are uncertain.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Episode 53: Supply Chain Demand Help and Dueling Mega Cycles

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s earnings. My spark notes are the NXPI and IFX did better than I feared, but I continue to be unconstructive on automotive.</li><li>Fabrinet and Coherent both achieved good results, but Fabrinet disappointed expectations for Nvidia's pluggable revenue. Is this a weak read-through? Unlikely. Marvell should have an amazing year if Coherent’s TAM is remotely correct.</li><li>MKSI put up the exact results I was looking for, and this continues to be my favorite idea. As WFE increases, inventory builds will happen, and then financial and operational leverage will take care of the rest.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s earnings. My spark notes are the NXPI and IFX did better than I feared, but I continue to be unconstructive on automotive.Fabrinet and Coherent both achieved good results, but Fabrinet disappointed expectations for Nvidia's pluggable revenue. Is this a weak read-through? Unlikely. Marvell should have an amazing year if Coherent’s TAM is remotely correct.MKSI put up the exact results I was looking for, and this continues to be my favorite idea. As WFE increases, inventory builds will happen, and then financial and operational leverage will take care of the rest.

Automotive (NXPI, IFX) Optics (FN, COHR), MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, ARM

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone and welcome back to yet another assessment of our macro book- and as per usual accompanied by our current macro outlook!We knock on the door to a week with yet another US CPI release- this time revised:The revision we received today proved not to be the unpleasant surprise everyone feared given the 2023 revision and Waller &amp; Powell both having flagged it and as a result, our expectations of a soft print remain unchanged- for elaboration see here.</li><li>While it might feel like we’re repeating ourselves, our belief in the USD and US risk assets being the best options out there hasn’t budged.</li><li>That said, we’ve been tossing around a few ideas and topics internally over the last week: Markets haven’t continued the dramatic price movements since last Friday’s (some might label it as “fake”, see here) NFP blowout, but it’s noteworthy that short-term expectations are significantly outstripping those further along the curve.</li></ul>

Hello everyone and welcome back to yet another assessment of our macro book- and as per usual accompanied by our current macro outlook!We knock on the door to a week with yet another US CPI release- this time revised:The revision we received today proved not to be the unpleasant surprise everyone feared given the 2023 revision and Waller &amp; Powell both having flagged it and as a result, our expectations of a soft print remain unchanged- for elaboration see here.While it might feel like we’re repeating ourselves, our belief in the USD and US risk assets being the best options out there hasn’t budged.That said, we’ve been tossing around a few ideas and topics internally over the last week: Markets haven’t continued the dramatic price movements since last Friday’s (some might label it as “fake”, see here) NFP blowout, but it’s noteworthy that short-term expectations are significantly outstripping those further along the curve.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul>
<li>Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta, collectively known as Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta, have recently announced their CY4Q23 results, unanimously claiming to increase investments in AI-related infrastructure from the current levels.</li>
<li>Per Bloomberg consensus, the capex of Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta will grow 22.6% in 2024, higher than prior forecasts of 16.6%.</li>
<li>This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.</li>
</ul>


Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta, collectively known as Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta, have recently announced their CY4Q23 results, unanimously claiming to increase investments in AI-related infrastructure from the current levels.
Per Bloomberg consensus, the capex of Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta will grow 22.6% in 2024, higher than prior forecasts of 16.6%.
This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.


Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Latest Performance: Taiwan AI Names Keep Flying; ASE &amp; Mediatek Lose Steam After Reporting</li>
<li>Largest Display Driver Maker in the World's Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb &amp; March</li>
<li>TSMC and Samsung Will Keep Their Most Advanced Chipmaking at Home</li>
</ul>


Latest Performance: Taiwan AI Names Keep Flying; ASE &amp; Mediatek Lose Steam After Reporting
Largest Display Driver Maker in the World's Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb &amp; March
TSMC and Samsung Will Keep Their Most Advanced Chipmaking at Home


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Episode 53: Supply Chain Demand Help and Dueling Mega Cycles

Sam Altman is reportedly looking to raise $5 to $7 trillion for a semiconductor project, but it is unclear who he is talking to or how realistic...

The Circuit

Automotive (NXPI, IFX) Optics (FN, COHR), MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, ARM

Welcome to this week’s earnings. My spark notes are the NXPI and IFX did better than I feared, but I continue to be unconstructive on automotive...

Fabricated Knowledge

Portfolio Watch: NVDA or Bust?

Hello everyone and welcome back to yet another assessment of our macro book- and as per usual accompanied by our current macro outlook!We knock on...

Steno Research

Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.

CMB International

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying

Taiwan AI names soar, ASE and Mediatek stumble; world's largest display driver maker predicts growth decline; TSMC and Samsung prioritize domestic...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Episode 53: Supply Chain Demand Help and Dueling Mega Cycles

Sam Altman is reportedly looking to raise $5 to $7 trillion for a semiconductor project, but it is unclear who he is talking to or how realistic...

The Circuit

Automotive (NXPI, IFX) Optics (FN, COHR), MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, ARM

Welcome to this week’s earnings. My spark notes are the NXPI and IFX did better than I feared, but I continue to be unconstructive on automotive...

Fabricated Knowledge

Portfolio Watch: NVDA or Bust?

Hello everyone and welcome back to yet another assessment of our macro book- and as per usual accompanied by our current macro outlook!We knock on...

Steno Research

Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.

CMB International

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying

​Taiwan AI names soar, ASE and Mediatek stumble; world's largest display driver maker predicts growth decline; TSMC and Samsung prioritize domestic...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan AI names soar, ASE and Mediatek stumble; world's largest display driver maker predicts growth decline; TSMC and Samsung prioritize domestic...