Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Short duration US factor strategies outperformed in September as markets came under pressure (value and dividend yield).</li>
<li>Despite keeping rates unchanged on the 20th of September at 5.5% (upper bound), Fed Chair Powell indicated that rates would be kept higher for longer than initially anticipated.</li>
<li>In this note we explore the <em><strong>relative performance</strong></em> of US factor strategies through different interest rate cycles, to inform timing around factor/style rotation.</li>
</ul>


Short duration US factor strategies outperformed in September as markets came under pressure (value and dividend yield).
Despite keeping rates unchanged on the 20th of September at 5.5% (upper bound), Fed Chair Powell indicated that rates would be kept higher for longer than initially anticipated.
In this note we explore the relative performance of US factor strategies through different interest rate cycles, to inform timing around factor/style rotation.


US Factor Strategies: Value and Dividend Yield Outperform in September, Higher for Longer Narrative

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron's earnings results will be released September 27th. We expect the company to describe a trough for memory pricing happening now and provide a positive outlook for rising prices.</li>
<li>Micron and Nanya Tech have outperformed SK Hynix recently. Our 'reversion catch up' trade has worked. Going forward we believe Micron looks compelling on a relative basis.</li>
<li>SK Hynix was ahead of peers developing HBM DRAM needed for AI. However, Micron could now convince the market it can catch up by focusing on the next advanced version.</li>
</ul>


Micron's earnings results will be released September 27th. We expect the company to describe a trough for memory pricing happening now and provide a positive outlook for rising prices.
Micron and Nanya Tech have outperformed SK Hynix recently. Our 'reversion catch up' trade has worked. Going forward we believe Micron looks compelling on a relative basis.
SK Hynix was ahead of peers developing HBM DRAM needed for AI. However, Micron could now convince the market it can catch up by focusing on the next advanced version.


Micron's Results Likely to Call a Memory Market Trough and Highlight New HBM DRAM for AI

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia will report its earnings today U.S.-time, we outline the key Taiwan AI supply chain names to watch around the earnings.</li>
<li>TSMC has maintained its full-year revenue guidance despite media reports questioning whether a further downgrade was coming.</li>
<li>Hon Hai produces over 50% of Nvidia's AI hardware according to media reports.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia will report its earnings today U.S.-time, we outline the key Taiwan AI supply chain names to watch around the earnings.
TSMC has maintained its full-year revenue guidance despite media reports questioning whether a further downgrade was coming.
Hon Hai produces over 50% of Nvidia's AI hardware according to media reports.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Key Supply Chain Names to Watch for Nvidia's Earnings Today

<ul>
<li>Intel's latest results imply a potential bottoming of its business &amp; nascent turn-around; however the greater take-away is that the PC industry is heading into a major AI-driven up-cycle.</li>
<li>PC industry inventories are now "healthy" and Intel's Client Computing segment (PCs) showed the strongest QoQ revenue growth. Management is guiding for continued improvement next quarter.</li>
<li>Edge AI will drive a major upgrade cycle for PCs worldwide and Intel's new Meteor Lake chip could be a catalyst. Invest ahead of AI PCs having their "ChatGPT Moment".</li>
</ul>


Intel's latest results imply a potential bottoming of its business &amp; nascent turn-around; however the greater take-away is that the PC industry is heading into a major AI-driven up-cycle.
PC industry inventories are now "healthy" and Intel's Client Computing segment (PCs) showed the strongest QoQ revenue growth. Management is guiding for continued improvement next quarter.
Edge AI will drive a major upgrade cycle for PCs worldwide and Intel's new Meteor Lake chip could be a catalyst. Invest ahead of AI PCs having their "ChatGPT Moment".


Intel Results #1 Take-Away: Major Readthrough for PC Upgrade Cycle and Edge AI

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported earnings. They beat Q2 estimates, but importantly they guided down Q3 and FY 2023 estimates.</li>
<li>The Q2 beat was widely expected regarding revenue, given that TSMC reports monthly revenue, but the Q3 guide was not.</li>
<li>The midpoint of the guidance has the year-over-year decline decelerating, which I didn’t expect. Moreover, the -10% annual guide throws some water on the second-half recovery. Yes, the second half will be higher than the first, but the recovery is much more muted than historical. And what’s more, margins are looking worse for N3 than a typical node.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported earnings. They beat Q2 estimates, but importantly they guided down Q3 and FY 2023 estimates.
The Q2 beat was widely expected regarding revenue, given that TSMC reports monthly revenue, but the Q3 guide was not.
The midpoint of the guidance has the year-over-year decline decelerating, which I didn’t expect. Moreover, the -10% annual guide throws some water on the second-half recovery. Yes, the second half will be higher than the first, but the recovery is much more muted than historical. And what’s more, margins are looking worse for N3 than a typical node.


TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

US Factor Strategies: Value and Dividend Yield Outperform in September, Higher for Longer Narrative

US rates and factor strategies: higher for longer likely to drive outperformance of short duration factor strategies, long US value short US growth.

DMA

Micron's Results Likely to Call a Memory Market Trough and Highlight New HBM DRAM for AI

SK Hynix was ahead of peers developing HBM DRAM needed for AI. However, Micron could now convince the market it can catch up by focusing on the...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Key Supply Chain Names to Watch for Nvidia's Earnings Today

Also -- TSMC has maintained its full-year revenue guidance and Hon Hai is said to produce over 50% of Nvidia's AI hardware.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Results #1 Take-Away: Major Readthrough for PC Upgrade Cycle and Edge AI

Edge AI will drive a major upgrade cycle for PCs worldwide -- We recommend getting ahead of PC's having their "ChatGPT Moment".

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)

TSMC sees further inventory correction, I see earnings disappointments. ASML has a quandary if the entire ecosystem is trying to use EUV.

Fabricated Knowledge

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