Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Nvidia’s quarter was surprising to me because it was boring. There were a few incremental pieces, but the big news was everything to do with China.</li><li>As you know, there was another round of export restrictions with a myopic focus on AI Accelerators.</li><li>This impacted results and the outlook.</li></ul>

Nvidia’s quarter was surprising to me because it was boring. There were a few incremental pieces, but the big news was everything to do with China.As you know, there was another round of export restrictions with a myopic focus on AI Accelerators.This impacted results and the outlook.

Nvidia's China Problems, Applied Materials, and Microsoft's Accelerators

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q3FY24 revenues of 18.1 billion, up 34% QoQ and up a staggering 206% from the year ago period. It was also ~$2 billion higher than the guided number</li>
<li>NVIDIA’s current quarter forecast was for a further revenue raise of almost $2 billion with gross margins staying roughly flat at 74.5%</li>
<li>Share price reaction was negative, closing down 2.5% the following day. But why?</li>
</ul>


Q3FY24 revenues of 18.1 billion, up 34% QoQ and up a staggering 206% from the year ago period. It was also ~$2 billion higher than the guided number
NVIDIA’s current quarter forecast was for a further revenue raise of almost $2 billion with gross margins staying roughly flat at 74.5%
Share price reaction was negative, closing down 2.5% the following day. But why?


NVIDIA. Another Beat & Raise, Yet Shares Slide. But Why?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Our Taiwan AI stock short basket of Quanta, Wistron, Gold Circuit, and Asia Vital has underperformed Nvidia by 12.5% since our previous piece.</li>
<li>Most of Taiwan's AI stock plays have underperformed Nvidia over the same period, but by less than our basket names. Analyst recommendations remain overwhelmingly Buy for our Short basket names.</li>
<li>Conclusion: Maintain Quanta, Wistron, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital as a Short Basket vs. Long Nvidia. Nvidia revenue will grow at a higher percentage rate than most Taiwan AI concept stocks.</li>
</ul>


Our Taiwan AI stock short basket of Quanta, Wistron, Gold Circuit, and Asia Vital has underperformed Nvidia by 12.5% since our previous piece.
Most of Taiwan's AI stock plays have underperformed Nvidia over the same period, but by less than our basket names. Analyst recommendations remain overwhelmingly Buy for our Short basket names.
Conclusion: Maintain Quanta, Wistron, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital as a Short Basket vs. Long Nvidia. Nvidia revenue will grow at a higher percentage rate than most Taiwan AI concept stocks.


Taiwan AI Stock Shorts Vs. Nvidia: Nvidia Outperforms, Maintain Taiwan Short Basket

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Stocks Fall On Potential New U.S. Tech Restrictions for China &amp; Potential Policy Shift from a Trump White House... Strong TSMC &amp; ASML Results Fail to Rally the Sector</li>
<li>Even Tighter Technology Restrictions for China?  -- US Could Use Special Rule to Restrict Selling of Products Made by Foreign Companies</li>
<li>We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Stocks Fall On Potential New U.S. Tech Restrictions for China &amp; Potential Policy Shift from a Trump White House... Strong TSMC &amp; ASML Results Fail to Rally the Sector
Even Tighter Technology Restrictions for China?  -- US Could Use Special Rule to Restrict Selling of Products Made by Foreign Companies
We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For this report we datamined autonomous driving technology (ADT) innovations.</li>
<li>Worldwide over the last decade the ADT sector has seen nearly 25% CAGR growth in patent filings, with over 40,000 patent family filings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delphi-automotive-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20870:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Aptiv PLC (APTV US)</strong></a>, with a leadership position in several areas of ADT, strong financials, reasonable valuations and strategic partnerships stands out.  </li>
</ul>


For this report we datamined autonomous driving technology (ADT) innovations.
Worldwide over the last decade the ADT sector has seen nearly 25% CAGR growth in patent filings, with over 40,000 patent family filings.

Aptiv PLC (APTV US), with a leadership position in several areas of ADT, strong financials, reasonable valuations and strategic partnerships stands out.  


United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Nvidia's China Problems, Applied Materials, and Microsoft's Accelerators

Nvidia surprised everyone with a boring result! Applied Materials is an overreaction. Nvidia’s quarter was surprising to me because it was boring.

Fabricated Knowledge

NVIDIA. Another Beat & Raise, Yet Shares Slide. But Why?

Q3FY24 revenues of 18.1 billion, +34% QoQ & up staggering 206% from the year ago period.Current quarter forecast +$2 billion QoQ. What didn't the...

William Keating

Taiwan AI Stock Shorts Vs. Nvidia: Nvidia Outperforms, Maintain Taiwan Short Basket

The Taiwan AI Short Basket underperformed Nvidia, the Taiwan TWSE Index, and our universe of Taiwan AI plays. We expect Nvidia revenue to grow at a...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Autonomous Driving Leadership Landscape

Autonomous driving tech seeing surge in innovations to make journeys safer, more efficient, and intelligent. Welcome to the future of mobility.

Pyari Menon

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nvidia's China Problems, Applied Materials, and Microsoft's Accelerators

Nvidia surprised everyone with a boring result! Applied Materials is an overreaction. Nvidia’s quarter was surprising to me because it was boring.

Fabricated Knowledge

NVIDIA. Another Beat & Raise, Yet Shares Slide. But Why?

Q3FY24 revenues of 18.1 billion, +34% QoQ & up staggering 206% from the year ago period.Current quarter forecast +$2 billion QoQ. What didn't the...

William Keating

Taiwan AI Stock Shorts Vs. Nvidia: Nvidia Outperforms, Maintain Taiwan Short Basket

The Taiwan AI Short Basket underperformed Nvidia, the Taiwan TWSE Index, and our universe of Taiwan AI plays. We expect Nvidia revenue to grow at a...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

​Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Autonomous Driving Leadership Landscape

Autonomous driving tech seeing surge in innovations to make journeys safer, more efficient, and intelligent. Welcome to the future of mobility.

Pyari Menon

Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...