Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>After 8 quarters of employment-led growth, productivity grew 1.5%YoY in Q2CY24, as machinery investment grew 3.8%YoY. The large pipeline of unfulfilled investment commitments from 2022 should boost machinery investment further. </li>
<li>NODX rebounded to 13.2%YoY growth (16.1%YoY volume growth) in Jul-Aug'24, and the BoP current account surplus was 20% of GDP in H1CY24. As productivity accelerates, inflation will moderate. </li>
<li>We expect real GDP to grow 3.7% in 2024. But lower inflation will allow S$NEER's pace of appreciation to be reduced (Oct'24) and S$NEER re-centered lower (Mar'25). Bullish. </li>
</ul>


After 8 quarters of employment-led growth, productivity grew 1.5%YoY in Q2CY24, as machinery investment grew 3.8%YoY. The large pipeline of unfulfilled investment commitments from 2022 should boost machinery investment further. 
NODX rebounded to 13.2%YoY growth (16.1%YoY volume growth) in Jul-Aug'24, and the BoP current account surplus was 20% of GDP in H1CY24. As productivity accelerates, inflation will moderate. 
We expect real GDP to grow 3.7% in 2024. But lower inflation will allow S$NEER's pace of appreciation to be reduced (Oct'24) and S$NEER re-centered lower (Mar'25). Bullish. 


Singapore: Productivity-Led Cyclical Recovery Will Dampen Inflation, Ease Policy

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mapletree Logistics Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Singapore stocks have booked net retail inflow of S$1.01 billion in the 2024 year to 13 June, comprised of S$959 million in 1Q24 and S$50 million in 2Q24.</li><li>While the 2Q24 net inflow looks to have slowed considerably, S$597 million of net retail outflow in the trio of Banks has offset S$646 million of net retail inflow to other Singapore stocks.</li><li>As noted above, coinciding with price gains, UOB booked the most net selling by retail investors in the 2Q24 (to 13 June) at S$366 million, which followed S$10 million of net retail buying in 1Q24.</li></ul>

Singapore stocks have booked net retail inflow of S$1.01 billion in the 2024 year to 13 June, comprised of S$959 million in 1Q24 and S$50 million in 2Q24.While the 2Q24 net inflow looks to have slowed considerably, S$597 million of net retail outflow in the trio of Banks has offset S$646 million of net retail inflow to other Singapore stocks.As noted above, coinciding with price gains, UOB booked the most net selling by retail investors in the 2Q24 (to 13 June) at S$366 million, which followed S$10 million of net retail buying in 1Q24.

Recent Net Retail Flow in Singapore Stocks

<ul><li>Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions through to Jun 6, with S$106.8 million of net institutional outflow, as 17 primary-listed companies conducted buybacks with a total consideration of S$55.8 million.</li><li>Leading the net institutional outflow over the five sessions were City Developments Ltd, Seatrium, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, Genting Singapore , Jardine Cycle & Carriage, NetLink NBN Trust, Golden Agri-Resources, Venture Corporation and Raffles Medical Group.</li><li>With a consideration of S$315,000, this increased his total interest in the regional premium real estate group from 74.86 to 74.97 per cent.</li></ul>

Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions through to Jun 6, with S$106.8 million of net institutional outflow, as 17 primary-listed companies conducted buybacks with a total consideration of S$55.8 million.Leading the net institutional outflow over the five sessions were City Developments Ltd, Seatrium, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, Genting Singapore , Jardine Cycle & Carriage, NetLink NBN Trust, Golden Agri-Resources, Venture Corporation and Raffles Medical Group.With a consideration of S$315,000, this increased his total interest in the regional premium real estate group from 74.86 to 74.97 per cent.

Real estate directors building up their company stakes

<ul><li>On 27 May, the STI closed at 3,318.45, its highest close since August 2023.</li><li>STI stocks within the Real Estate Management and Development sector - Hongkong Land, City Developments and UOL Group - all booked net institutional inflow while averaging 7.1% total returns.</li><li>10 Real Estate (Ex-REITs) stocks that booked most net institutional inflow since 16 April Code Mkt Cap S$M YTD ADT S$M YTD NIF S$M YTD TR % 17 April - 27 May NIF / Mkt Cap 16 April - 27 May TR % Sector.</li></ul>

On 27 May, the STI closed at 3,318.45, its highest close since August 2023.STI stocks within the Real Estate Management and Development sector - Hongkong Land, City Developments and UOL Group - all booked net institutional inflow while averaging 7.1% total returns.10 Real Estate (Ex-REITs) stocks that booked most net institutional inflow since 16 April Code Mkt Cap S$M YTD ADT S$M YTD NIF S$M YTD TR % 17 April - 27 May NIF / Mkt Cap 16 April - 27 May TR % Sector.

STI Gains 7% over Six Weeks on Net Institutional Inflow

<ul><li>Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the four trading sessions through to May 2, with S$12.9 million of net institutional inflow, as 17 primary-listed companies conducted buybacks with a total consideration of S$28.4 million.</li><li>Leading the net institutional inflow over the four sessions were DBS, UOB, Seatrium, City Developments, UOL Group, iFast Corporation, Singapore Tech Engineering, Singapore Exchange, Cortina Holdings, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust and Hongkong Land Holdings.</li><li>For the month of April, Singapore stocks booked S$225 million of net institutional inflow, following S$1.15 billion of net institutional outflow in Q1.</li></ul>

Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the four trading sessions through to May 2, with S$12.9 million of net institutional inflow, as 17 primary-listed companies conducted buybacks with a total consideration of S$28.4 million.Leading the net institutional inflow over the four sessions were DBS, UOB, Seatrium, City Developments, UOL Group, iFast Corporation, Singapore Tech Engineering, Singapore Exchange, Cortina Holdings, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust and Hongkong Land Holdings.For the month of April, Singapore stocks booked S$225 million of net institutional inflow, following S$1.15 billion of net institutional outflow in Q1.

Singapore

City Developments Limited is a property developer and owner. The Company, through its subsidiaries, are principally engaged in the investment of properties and shares, property management, project management and the provision of consultancy services, hospitality-related information technology, and procurement services. City Developments has a global presence.

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City Developments (CIT SP)

Singapore: Productivity-Led Cyclical Recovery Will Dampen Inflation, Ease Policy

Productivity is accelerating amid a machinery investment-led cyclical rebound. ULCs & inflation are declining, even as RGDP accelerates to 3.7%...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Recent Net Retail Flow in Singapore Stocks

Singapore stocks have booked net retail inflow of S$1.01 billion in the 2024 year to 13 June, comprised of S$959 million in 1Q24 and S$50 million...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Real estate directors building up their company stakes

Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions through to Jun 6, with S$106.8 million of net institutional...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

STI Gains 7% over Six Weeks on Net Institutional Inflow

On 27 May, the STI closed at 3,318.45, its highest close since August 2023. STI stocks within the Real Estate Management and Development sector -...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Seatrium initiates buyback programme

Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the four trading sessions through to May 2, with S$12.9 million of net institutional inflow,...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Singapore: Productivity-Led Cyclical Recovery Will Dampen Inflation, Ease Policy

​Productivity is accelerating amid a machinery investment-led cyclical rebound. ULCs & inflation are declining, even as RGDP accelerates to 3.7%...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Recent Net Retail Flow in Singapore Stocks

Singapore stocks have booked net retail inflow of S$1.01 billion in the 2024 year to 13 June, comprised of S$959 million in 1Q24 and S$50 million...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Real estate directors building up their company stakes

Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions through to Jun 6, with S$106.8 million of net institutional...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

STI Gains 7% over Six Weeks on Net Institutional Inflow

On 27 May, the STI closed at 3,318.45, its highest close since August 2023. STI stocks within the Real Estate Management and Development sector -...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Seatrium initiates buyback programme

Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the four trading sessions through to May 2, with S$12.9 million of net institutional inflow,...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Productivity is accelerating amid a machinery investment-led cyclical rebound. ULCs & inflation are declining, even as RGDP accelerates to 3.7%...