Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ends on 31 January, the changes will be announced towards end February and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.</li>
<li>We forecast one add/delete for the Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Chemical (003670 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a>; the largest outflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kmw-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2834:1" rel="noopener">KMW (032500 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ends on 31 January, the changes will be announced towards end February and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.
We forecast one add/delete for the Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.
The largest inflows are expected on Posco Chemical (003670 KS) and Douzone Bizon (012510 KS); the largest outflows are expected on SK Innovation (096770 KS) and KMW (032500 KS).


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Some Big Impact Names

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>DearU's acquisition of NCSoft's Universe K-Pop fandom platform will expand DearU Bubble's number one position in the K-Pop fandom platform in Korea.</li>
<li>The sale of Universe by NCSoft is a win-win situation for both DearU and NCsoft.</li>
<li>Applying a 25x P/E to an estimated net profit of 50 billion won in 2024 would suggest an market cap of 1.25 trillion won for DearU, representing a 52% upside. </li>
</ul>


DearU's acquisition of NCSoft's Universe K-Pop fandom platform will expand DearU Bubble's number one position in the K-Pop fandom platform in Korea.
The sale of Universe by NCSoft is a win-win situation for both DearU and NCsoft.
Applying a 25x P/E to an estimated net profit of 50 billion won in 2024 would suggest an market cap of 1.25 trillion won for DearU, representing a 52% upside. 


DearU' Bubble + NCsoft's Universe = The Largest K-Pop Fandom Platform in Korea

<ul>
<li>On 11 January, it was announced that Kakao Entertainment (103260 KS) has attracted large scale investments from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund (Public Investment Fund - PIF) and GIC (Singapore).</li>
<li>Maekyung Business Daily reported that PIF and GIC combined invested about 1.1 trillion won to 1.2 trillion won in Kakao Entertainment, valuing the company at about 10 trillion won.</li>
<li>This major investment in Kakao Entertainment by PIF and GIC should have a positive impact on Kakao Corp (035720 KS), the controlling shareholder of the company.</li>
</ul>


On 11 January, it was announced that Kakao Entertainment (103260 KS) has attracted large scale investments from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund (Public Investment Fund - PIF) and GIC (Singapore).
Maekyung Business Daily reported that PIF and GIC combined invested about 1.1 trillion won to 1.2 trillion won in Kakao Entertainment, valuing the company at about 10 trillion won.
This major investment in Kakao Entertainment by PIF and GIC should have a positive impact on Kakao Corp (035720 KS), the controlling shareholder of the company.


PIF and GIC Combined Invest About 1.2 Trillion Won in Kakao Entertainment

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On 28 December, the Chinese regulators announced that it will allow import of 45 foreign video games in China, among which seven are Korean video games.</li>
<li>Now that the Chinese authorities have allowed greater imports of foreign games, this will act as a significant positive catalyst to boost share prices of Korean game companies.</li>
<li>Among the major Korean game companies, we believe that NCsoft and Netmarble are best positioned to capitalize on this catalyst.</li>
</ul>


On 28 December, the Chinese regulators announced that it will allow import of 45 foreign video games in China, among which seven are Korean video games.
Now that the Chinese authorities have allowed greater imports of foreign games, this will act as a significant positive catalyst to boost share prices of Korean game companies.
Among the major Korean game companies, we believe that NCsoft and Netmarble are best positioned to capitalize on this catalyst.


China Allows Import of 45 Foreign Video Games Including 7 Korean Games

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +12.8%y/y for 3Q22-to-date, a significant slowdown from what was reported for 2Q22.</li>
<li>60% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, same as in 2Q22, whilst 65% delivered positive EPS surprise, up from 56% in 2Q22.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +12.8%y/y for 3Q22-to-date, a significant slowdown from what was reported for 2Q22.
60% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, same as in 2Q22, whilst 65% delivered positive EPS surprise, up from 56% in 2Q22.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022

South Korea

NCSOFT Corporation develops and markets on-line games that enable users to play over the Internet and computer software, such as web editing software.  The Company also designs and constructs databases, Intranet, and commercial Internet access systems.

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NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Some Big Impact Names

There are some high impact changes expected at the March rebalance of the New Deal indices mainly from changes to the top 3 stocks in the Battery...

Brian Freitas

DearU' Bubble + NCsoft's Universe = The Largest K-Pop Fandom Platform in Korea

DearU's acquisition of NCSoft's Universe K-Pop fandom platform will expand DearU Bubble's number one position in the K-Pop fandom platform in Korea.

Douglas Kim

PIF and GIC Combined Invest About 1.2 Trillion Won in Kakao Entertainment

Maekyung Business Daily reported on 11 January that PIF (Saudi Arabia) and GIC combined invested about 1.2 trillion won in Kakao Entertainment,...

Douglas Kim

China Allows Import of 45 Foreign Video Games Including 7 Korean Games

On 28 December, the Chinese regulators announced that it will allow import of 45 foreign video games in China, among which seven are Korean video...

Douglas Kim

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales- and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

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