Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The KRX has found that an individual retail investor net bought 500,000 NCsoft shares in a single account on November 11 when NCsoft hit the daily upper limit (+30%).</li>
<li>For now, no one knows the answer to this. We have no choice but to wait for the results of the investigation by the KRX monitoring team.</li>
<li>Until then, NCsoft's share price is expected to inevitably fluctuate due to the NFT fever and this unprecedented retail trading.</li>
</ul>


The KRX has found that an individual retail investor net bought 500,000 NCsoft shares in a single account on November 11 when NCsoft hit the daily upper limit (+30%).
For now, no one knows the answer to this. We have no choice but to wait for the results of the investigation by the KRX monitoring team.
Until then, NCsoft's share price is expected to inevitably fluctuate due to the NFT fever and this unprecedented retail trading.


KRX Investigates Potential Price Manipulation on NCsoft on Nov 11th

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the earnings conference today, NCsoft stated that the company plans to launch a <strong>blockchain, NFT based game in 2022</strong>, which was the biggest highlight in the earnings conference call.</li>
<li>NCsoft reported slightly worse than expected results in 3Q 2021. Despite these results, the market chose to focus on NCsoft's push into the blockchain, NFT based games. </li>
<li>The entire Korean game industry could be re-rated in the coming weeks, bolstered by the ability to capture new markets and customers through the blockchain, NFT based games. </li>
</ul>


In the earnings conference today, NCsoft stated that the company plans to launch a blockchain, NFT based game in 2022, which was the biggest highlight in the earnings conference call.
NCsoft reported slightly worse than expected results in 3Q 2021. Despite these results, the market chose to focus on NCsoft's push into the blockchain, NFT based games. 
The entire Korean game industry could be re-rated in the coming weeks, bolstered by the ability to capture new markets and customers through the blockchain, NFT based games. 


NCsoft - Launch of Blockchain, NFT Based Game [Re-Rating of the Entire Game Sector in Korea?]

<h2>M&amp;A of Lionheart Studio by Kakao Games Corp </h2><p>In this insight, we discuss the increasing likelihood of an IPO of Lionheart Studio post its controlling stake purchase by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS)</a>.  Kakao Games first made its investment in Lionheart Studio in May 2020 and the partnership between the two companies started in August 2018. On 1 November, <a href="https://pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?year=2021&amp;no=1033976" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Games</a> announced that it will acquire an additional 30.37% stake in Lionheart Studio Corp, raising its total stake to 52%.</p><p>Lionheart Studio is well known for its blockbuster mobile game <em>Odin: Valhalla Rising </em>which was launched in Korea in June 2021 and it was ranked as the top grossing mobile game for 18 weeks in a row at Apple and Google Play app stores in Korea. </p><p>Kakao Games Corp's subsidiary Kakao Games Europe B.V. will acquire a 30.37% stake in Lionheart Studio by paying 450 billion won for this stake. Lionheart Studio is now valued at 1.5 trillion won. The upfront payment for this acquisition will be made on November 23, 2021. The final acquisition amount will be finalized after Lionheart Studio provides its final business performance through June 30, 2022. </p><p>Overall, we believe that this M&amp;A of Lionheart Studio and the potential IPO of Lionheart Studio will likely have a positive impact on Kakao Games Corp shares as the company's <em>Odin: Valhalla Rising</em> mobile game has been so successful in reaching top market share for mobile games in Korea. </p>

M&amp;A of Lionheart Studio by Kakao Games Corp In this insight, we discuss the increasing likelihood of an IPO of Lionheart Studio post its controlling stake purchase by Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS).  Kakao Games first made its investment in Lionheart Studio in May 2020 and the partnership between the two companies started in August 2018. On 1 November, Kakao Games announced that it will acquire an additional 30.37% stake in Lionheart Studio Corp, raising its total stake to 52%.Lionheart Studio is well known for its blockbuster mobile game Odin: Valhalla Rising which was launched in Korea in June 2021 and it was ranked as the top grossing mobile game for 18 weeks in a row at Apple and Google Play app stores in Korea. Kakao Games Corp's subsidiary Kakao Games Europe B.V. will acquire a 30.37% stake in Lionheart Studio by paying 450 billion won for this stake. Lionheart Studio is now valued at 1.5 trillion won. The upfront payment for this acquisition will be made on November 23, 2021. The final acquisition amount will be finalized after Lionheart Studio provides its final business performance through June 30, 2022. Overall, we believe that this M&amp;A of Lionheart Studio and the potential IPO of Lionheart Studio will likely have a positive impact on Kakao Games Corp shares as the company's Odin: Valhalla Rising mobile game has been so successful in reaching top market share for mobile games in Korea. 

M&A and IPO of Lionheart Studio & Put Option Clause for Its Executives - Impact on Kakao Games

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<p>This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. </p>
<p>The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. </p>
<p>This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 3 years (and implemented in its current state for 17 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. </p>
<p>Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include Russian internet company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yandex-nv-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:414:1" rel="noopener">Yandex (YNDX US)</a>, Indian IT Services company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hcl-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20025:1" rel="noopener">Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN)</a>, and a return to the top 10 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>.</p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup> <col> <col> <col> <col> <col> </colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">rank</td>
<td style="width: 169pt;">Name</td>
<td style="width: 119pt;">Sector</td>
<td style="width: 95pt;">Location</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">prev.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-household-health-care" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6501:1" rel="noopener">LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS)</a> </td>
<td>Consumer Staples</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Communication</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yandex-nv-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:414:1" rel="noopener">Yandex (YNDX US)</a> </td>
<td>Communication</td>
<td>Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">49</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">6</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">7</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> </td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Taiwan</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">8</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/al-rajhi-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27038:1" rel="noopener">Al Rajhi Bank (RJHI AB)</a> </td>
<td>Financials</td>
<td>Saudi Arabia</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">9</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/magazine-luiza-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27676:1" rel="noopener">Magazine Luiza SA (MGLU3 BZ)</a> </td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>Brazil</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hcl-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20025:1" rel="noopener">Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN)</a> </td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>India</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">83</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="5" style="text-align: left;">Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.</em></p>

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. 
The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. 
This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 3 years (and implemented in its current state for 17 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. 
Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include Russian internet company Yandex (YNDX US), Indian IT Services company Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN), and a return to the top 10 for TSMC (2330 TT).

      


rank
Name
Sector
Location
prev.


1

LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS) 
Consumer Staples
Korea (South)
12


2

NetEase (9999 HK) 
Communication
China
2


3

JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) 
Consumer Discretionary
China
10


4

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) 
Information Technology
China
4


5

Yandex (YNDX US) 
Communication
Russian Federation
49


6

New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK) 
Consumer Discretionary
China
1


7

TSMC (2330 TT) 
Information Technology
Taiwan
16


8

Al Rajhi Bank (RJHI AB) 
Financials
Saudi Arabia
33


9

Magazine Luiza SA (MGLU3 BZ) 
Consumer Discretionary
Brazil
15


10

Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN) 
Information Technology
India
83


Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas



As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

<p>It was announced on 15 October that a consortium led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a> plans to purchase a large property in Seoul for more than<a href="https://moneys.mt.co.kr/news/mwView.php?no=2021101517518088669" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 1 trillion won. </a>CBRE is the advisory firm in this sale. The Krafton-Mirae Asset Managment consortium has been selected as the preferred bidder for this property located in Seongsu-dong, Seoul (currently owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/e-mart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6993:1" rel="noopener">E Mart Inc (139480 KS).</a> Krafton and Emart are expected to sign a MOU for this deal next week.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>We believe that Krafton purchasing a large piece of property in Seoul is likely to have a negative impact on its share price.</strong> Although Krafton is a cash rich company with nearly 4.5 trillion won in net cash post the IPO, it may need to spend about 500 billion won to 750 billion won in investment in this large property in Seong-su dong, Seoul. Many investors will not like this deal as they would rather have Krafton invest in its core gaming business (internally or through acquisitions).</p></div>

It was announced on 15 October that a consortium led by  Krafton Inc (259960 KS) plans to purchase a large property in Seoul for more than 1 trillion won. CBRE is the advisory firm in this sale. The Krafton-Mirae Asset Managment consortium has been selected as the preferred bidder for this property located in Seongsu-dong, Seoul (currently owned by E Mart Inc (139480 KS). Krafton and Emart are expected to sign a MOU for this deal next week.We believe that Krafton purchasing a large piece of property in Seoul is likely to have a negative impact on its share price. Although Krafton is a cash rich company with nearly 4.5 trillion won in net cash post the IPO, it may need to spend about 500 billion won to 750 billion won in investment in this large property in Seong-su dong, Seoul. Many investors will not like this deal as they would rather have Krafton invest in its core gaming business (internally or through acquisitions).

Krafton Consortium Plans to Buy a Large Property in Seoul from Emart for More than 1 Trillion Won

South Korea

NCSOFT Corporation develops and markets on-line games that enable users to play over the Internet and computer software, such as web editing software.  The Company also designs and constructs databases, Intranet, and commercial Internet access systems.

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NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)

KRX Investigates Potential Price Manipulation on NCsoft on Nov 11th

One individual retail investor net purchased 0.5M NCsoft shares in one day. As a result, the KRX's market monitoring committee began the process of...

Sanghyun Park

NCsoft - Launch of Blockchain, NFT Based Game [Re-Rating of the Entire Game Sector in Korea?]

In the earnings conference today, NCsoft stated that the company plans to launch a blockchain, NFT based game in 2022, which was the biggest...

Douglas Kim

M&A and IPO of Lionheart Studio & Put Option Clause for Its Executives - Impact on Kakao Games

In this insight, we discuss the increasing likelihood of an IPO of Lionheart Studio post its controlling stake purchase by Kakao Games Corp (293490...

Douglas Kim

Screening for GEMs: November 2021

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Krafton Consortium Plans to Buy a Large Property in Seoul from Emart for More than 1 Trillion Won

We believe that Krafton purchasing a large piece of property in Seoul is likely to have a negative impact on its share price.

Douglas Kim

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