External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>While 4W sales remained weak in 5M24 (wholesales of 334.9k, -21% yoy), we expect new models to help boost 2H24F sales.</li><li>Retail sales &gt; wholesales suggests little overstock at dealers, as was also confirmed by lower discounts in May24 (~7%) vs Apr24 (8%).</li><li>We raise our FY24F net profit forecast by 1.4% on higher auto margin assumptions. Rating upgraded to Buy with a TP of Rp5,100.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While 4W sales remained weak in 5M24 (wholesales of 334.9k, -21% yoy), we expect new models to help boost 2H24F sales.Retail sales &gt; wholesales suggests little overstock at dealers, as was also confirmed by lower discounts in May24 (~7%) vs Apr24 (8%).We raise our FY24F net profit forecast by 1.4% on higher auto margin assumptions. Rating upgraded to Buy with a TP of Rp5,100.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Expect New Models to Boost 2H24F Sales

<ul><li>ASII retains its confidence in hybrid 4W expansion, given the current needs and infrastructure availability in Indonesia.</li><li>The capital allocation guidance is unchanged with the LT dividend rate to remain at ~40%, still focusing on UNTR and 4W non-manufacturing.</li><li>Maintain Hold for ASII and a TP of Rp 5,100; key risk from weak 4W sales</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ASII retains its confidence in hybrid 4W expansion, given the current needs and infrastructure availability in Indonesia.The capital allocation guidance is unchanged with the LT dividend rate to remain at ~40%, still focusing on UNTR and 4W non-manufacturing.Maintain Hold for ASII and a TP of Rp 5,100; key risk from weak 4W salesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - KTA from Call with the CFO

<ul><li>4M24 2W sales reached 2.1m units (-1% yoy; inline), while 4W wholesales remained weak at 263k units (-23% yoy, below our f’cast) </li><li>We trim our consolidated FY24/25F NP estimates by 6%/7% to factor in 18%/16% cutsin automotive revenue, and thus NP growth of -13%/-1%.</li><li>We maintain our Hold rating but with a lower TP of Rp5,100, as we see a more challenging growth outlook despite the stock’s cheap valuation</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

4M24 2W sales reached 2.1m units (-1% yoy; inline), while 4W wholesales remained weak at 263k units (-23% yoy, below our f’cast) We trim our consolidated FY24/25F NP estimates by 6%/7% to factor in 18%/16% cutsin automotive revenue, and thus NP growth of -13%/-1%.We maintain our Hold rating but with a lower TP of Rp5,100, as we see a more challenging growth outlook despite the stock’s cheap valuationContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Lowering FY24-25F Est. And TP Amid Weaker Auto Sales Outlook

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. </li>
<li>The simple ratio of JCNC/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.</li>
<li>There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> at these levels appears unrealistic. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. 
The simple ratio of JCNC/ Astra International (ASII IJ) is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.
There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at these levels appears unrealistic. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is coming up cheap after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> positively responded to its large share buyback announcement. Yet both companies are looking attractive here. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Astra and United Tractor are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Astra International (ASII IJ) is coming up cheap after United Tractors (UNTR IJ) positively responded to its large share buyback announcement. Yet both companies are looking attractive here. 
Preceding my comments on Astra and United Tractor are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Astra Trading Cheap. So Is United Tractor

Indonesia

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

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Astra International (ASII IJ)

Astra International - Expect New Models to Boost 2H24F Sales

We raise our FY24F net profit forecast by 1.4% on higher auto margin assumptions. Rating upgraded to Buy with a TP of Rp5,100.

BRI Danareksa Research

Astra International - KTA from Call with the CFO

ASII retains its confidence in hybrid 4W expansion, given the current needs and infrastructure availability in Indonesia.

BRI Danareksa Research

Astra International - Lowering FY24-25F Est. And TP Amid Weaker Auto Sales Outlook

4M24 2W sales reached 2.1m units (-1% yoy; inline), while 4W wholesales remained weak at 263k units (-23% yoy, below our f’cast)

BRI Danareksa Research

JCNC's Logic-Defying Valuation

There is no apparent justification for the current level. Expect Matheson to chip away at minorities. But a full-blown Offer appears unrealistic....

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Astra Trading Cheap. So Is United Tractor

I'd be buying Astra International (ASII IJ) here. But I'd be buying more of United Tractor. I would not set up a long/short here.

David Blennerhassett

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