ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> booked record earnings for 2023 despite some softening of commodities, driven by strong performance from the auto division and financing plus the strong performance from motorcycles. </li>
<li>Astra has continued to invest in growth areas of the Indonesian economy with investments last year in the EV battery ecosystem, increased exposure to healthcare, and investment in data centres.</li>
<li>Management flagged a potential 2H cyclical downturn but it is well-diversified enough to weather this. Valuations look attractive on 6.8x FY2024E PER and with a 6.6% dividend yield.</li>
</ul>



Astra International booked record earnings for 2023 despite some softening of commodities, driven by strong performance from the auto division and financing plus the strong performance from motorcycles. 
Astra has continued to invest in growth areas of the Indonesian economy with investments last year in the EV battery ecosystem, increased exposure to healthcare, and investment in data centres.
Management flagged a potential 2H cyclical downturn but it is well-diversified enough to weather this. Valuations look attractive on 6.8x FY2024E PER and with a 6.6% dividend yield.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Indonesia's Mirror Image

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>Recent findings and recalls from Toyota and Daihatsu Japan, and also ASII, create persisting negative ST sentiment on ASII’s share price.</li><li>Nonetheless, we estimate that the new progressive tax rate will have a minimal impact on ASII.</li><li>Despite an exciting EV line-up, infrastructure remains an issue for EV to gain more adoption. We maintain Hold rating on ASII and TP of Rp5,700.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Recent findings and recalls from Toyota and Daihatsu Japan, and also ASII, create persisting negative ST sentiment on ASII’s share price.Nonetheless, we estimate that the new progressive tax rate will have a minimal impact on ASII.Despite an exciting EV line-up, infrastructure remains an issue for EV to gain more adoption. We maintain Hold rating on ASII and TP of Rp5,700.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra Internasional (ASII) - Not yet Time to Turn Positive

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> has seen an aggressive sell-off on fears of increasing competition from the EV space as more operators enter the Indonesian auto market, with the most recent being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD</a>.</li>
<li>The company has successfully held its market share at 56% in FY2023 and has launched several EV models, mostly hybrids,  as adoption levels for BEVs remain low.</li>
<li>Management remains confident that FY2024 will be a stable year for both 2W and 4W, with overall EPS only set to decline slightly but valuations are now compelling.</li>
</ul>



Astra International has seen an aggressive sell-off on fears of increasing competition from the EV space as more operators enter the Indonesian auto market, with the most recent being BYD.
The company has successfully held its market share at 56% in FY2023 and has launched several EV models, mostly hybrids,  as adoption levels for BEVs remain low.
Management remains confident that FY2024 will be a stable year for both 2W and 4W, with overall EPS only set to decline slightly but valuations are now compelling.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Opportunity Knocks

<ul><li>Our study concludes that the economic benefit of hybrids/EV in Indonesia is still in question, hence ICE should sustain its dominance. </li><li>We forecast ASII’s net profit to decline by 10% YoY in FY24F, as we expect recovery in 4W sales to be offset by weaker mining segments. </li><li>We have a HOLD rating on ASII with a TP of Rp5,700. While the current valuation prices in earnings downside, ASII lacks ST catalysts</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our study concludes that the economic benefit of hybrids/EV in Indonesia is still in question, hence ICE should sustain its dominance. We forecast ASII’s net profit to decline by 10% YoY in FY24F, as we expect recovery in 4W sales to be offset by weaker mining segments. We have a HOLD rating on ASII with a TP of Rp5,700. While the current valuation prices in earnings downside, ASII lacks ST catalystsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra Internasional - ICE Should Sustain Its Dominance in the 4W Market, but Lacks ST Catalysts

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. </li>
<li>The simple ratio of JCNC/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.</li>
<li>There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> at these levels appears unrealistic. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. 
The simple ratio of JCNC/ Astra International (ASII IJ) is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.
There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at these levels appears unrealistic. 


Indonesia

PT Multistrada Arah Sarana Tbk manufactures vehicle tires. The Company markets its tires worldwide.

PT Selamat Sempurna Tbk manufactures automotive components such as filters, radiators, condensers, air conditioners, brake pipes, fuel pipes, fuel tanks, mufflers, and machinery spare parts.

PT Astra Otoparts Tbk manufactures and distributes a comprehensive range of automotive and motorcycle parts.  The Company produces a wide range of forged, cast, electrical, rubber and plastic automotive parts, and (OEM) original equipment manufacturing.  Astra Otoparts also produces replacement market automobile and motorcycles parts for local and foreign markets.

PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk manufactures goods made of rubber, primarily tires and tubes for vehicles. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures nylon cords, polyesters, ethylene glycol, petrochemical, nylon filament yarns, polyester-chips as raw material for nylon cords and tire yarns as well as synthetic rubber and rims. Gajah Tunggal also trades car accessories.

PT Indo Kordsa Tbk manufactures nylon, rayon, and polyester tire cords.  The Company uses technology and licensing from Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company and E.I. Du Pont de Nemours & Company.

PT Indospring Tbk manufactures leaf and coil springs for motor vehicles under license of Mitsubishi Steel Manufacturing, Japan.  The Company also manufactures valve springs with license agreement with Murata Spring Co. Ltd., Japan. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the rolling mill industry.

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk operates as a media company. The Company owns radio, print media, and talent management company, as well as engages in general trading, development, industry, agriculture, transportation, printing, and multimedia through satellite and other telecommunication equipment. Media Nusantara Citra Tbk serves customers in Indonesia.

PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk operates television, telecommunications and computer businesses.  The Company operates television channels; constructs and maintains telecommunications infrastructure; retails mobile telephones; provides satellite communications services; and offers Internet access.

PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk operates department stores and specialty stores selling a broad range of goods including clothing, toys, food, and other merchandise.

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The Company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

Subaru Corp manufactures passenger cars, buses, motor vehicle parts, and industrial machinery.  The Company also produces aircraft parts and supplies it to defense agency and Boeing Co.  The Company sells its passenger cars under the Subaru brand name.

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. manufactures motorcycles.  The Company also produces motor vehicle engines for Toyota Motor Corp. and Ford Motor Co.  Yamaha Motor's specialty products include motor boats, snowmobiles, golf carts, and electric power generators.  Yamaha Motor sells products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and South America.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. operates as a passenger car manufacturer. The Company engages in research, development, and marketing of new energy vehicles and power battery system. BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology conducts businesses in China.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Techn (600733 CH)

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

Isuzu Motors Limited manufactures and markets trucks and automobile parts. The Company's products include pickup trucks, light/heavy duty trucks, medium and large-sized buses, recreational vehicles, and sport utility vehicles.

TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters. The Company provides spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines, and transmission parts. TVS Motor Company serves customers in India.

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

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Astra International (ASII IJ)