External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Used 4W sales have gained traction rapidly since 2020, in which year used 4W sales grew by 8% yoy, outpacing new 4W sales (-44% yoy).</li><li>In FY23, used 4W sales to total 4W sales reached 58%, vs the 2015- 2019 avg of 42%, as 4W ASP increases exceeded incomes.</li><li>New model releases should help to support new 4W sales. Reiterate Buy rating on ASII with a TP of Rp 5,100.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Used 4W sales have gained traction rapidly since 2020, in which year used 4W sales grew by 8% yoy, outpacing new 4W sales (-44% yoy).In FY23, used 4W sales to total 4W sales reached 58%, vs the 2015- 2019 avg of 42%, as 4W ASP increases exceeded incomes.New model releases should help to support new 4W sales. Reiterate Buy rating on ASII with a TP of Rp 5,100.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Challenges from Used 4W, but Expect 2H24F Sales to Improve from 1H24

<ul><li>While 4W sales remained weak in 5M24 (wholesales of 334.9k, -21% yoy), we expect new models to help boost 2H24F sales.</li><li>Retail sales &gt; wholesales suggests little overstock at dealers, as was also confirmed by lower discounts in May24 (~7%) vs Apr24 (8%).</li><li>We raise our FY24F net profit forecast by 1.4% on higher auto margin assumptions. Rating upgraded to Buy with a TP of Rp5,100.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While 4W sales remained weak in 5M24 (wholesales of 334.9k, -21% yoy), we expect new models to help boost 2H24F sales.Retail sales &gt; wholesales suggests little overstock at dealers, as was also confirmed by lower discounts in May24 (~7%) vs Apr24 (8%).We raise our FY24F net profit forecast by 1.4% on higher auto margin assumptions. Rating upgraded to Buy with a TP of Rp5,100.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Expect New Models to Boost 2H24F Sales

<ul><li>ASII retains its confidence in hybrid 4W expansion, given the current needs and infrastructure availability in Indonesia.</li><li>The capital allocation guidance is unchanged with the LT dividend rate to remain at ~40%, still focusing on UNTR and 4W non-manufacturing.</li><li>Maintain Hold for ASII and a TP of Rp 5,100; key risk from weak 4W sales</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ASII retains its confidence in hybrid 4W expansion, given the current needs and infrastructure availability in Indonesia.The capital allocation guidance is unchanged with the LT dividend rate to remain at ~40%, still focusing on UNTR and 4W non-manufacturing.Maintain Hold for ASII and a TP of Rp 5,100; key risk from weak 4W salesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - KTA from Call with the CFO

<ul><li>4M24 2W sales reached 2.1m units (-1% yoy; inline), while 4W wholesales remained weak at 263k units (-23% yoy, below our f’cast) </li><li>We trim our consolidated FY24/25F NP estimates by 6%/7% to factor in 18%/16% cutsin automotive revenue, and thus NP growth of -13%/-1%.</li><li>We maintain our Hold rating but with a lower TP of Rp5,100, as we see a more challenging growth outlook despite the stock’s cheap valuation</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

4M24 2W sales reached 2.1m units (-1% yoy; inline), while 4W wholesales remained weak at 263k units (-23% yoy, below our f’cast) We trim our consolidated FY24/25F NP estimates by 6%/7% to factor in 18%/16% cutsin automotive revenue, and thus NP growth of -13%/-1%.We maintain our Hold rating but with a lower TP of Rp5,100, as we see a more challenging growth outlook despite the stock’s cheap valuationContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Lowering FY24-25F Est. And TP Amid Weaker Auto Sales Outlook

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> just released 1Q2024 results, which reflected the softer auto and heavy equipment markets, although buoyed by better earnings for its finance arm, </li>
<li>The company's headline net profit was down -14% YoY but stripping out value adjustments was only down -5% YoY, with management optimistic over the longer term. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra</a> continues to mirror the Indonesian economy, with its latest investment in geothermal but its nickel businesses also growing. Valuations attractive on 6.6x FY2024E PER and a 7.2% dividend yield. </li>
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Astra International (ASII IJ) just released 1Q2024 results, which reflected the softer auto and heavy equipment markets, although buoyed by better earnings for its finance arm, 
The company's headline net profit was down -14% YoY but stripping out value adjustments was only down -5% YoY, with management optimistic over the longer term. 

Astra continues to mirror the Indonesian economy, with its latest investment in geothermal but its nickel businesses also growing. Valuations attractive on 6.6x FY2024E PER and a 7.2% dividend yield. 


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Striking a Balance with Finance

Indonesia

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

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Astra International - Challenges from Used 4W, but Expect 2H24F Sales to Improve from 1H24

Used 4W sales have gained traction rapidly since 2020, in which year used 4W sales grew by 8% yoy, outpacing new 4W sales (-44% yoy).

BRI Danareksa Research

Astra International - Expect New Models to Boost 2H24F Sales

We raise our FY24F net profit forecast by 1.4% on higher auto margin assumptions. Rating upgraded to Buy with a TP of Rp5,100.

BRI Danareksa Research

Astra International - KTA from Call with the CFO

ASII retains its confidence in hybrid 4W expansion, given the current needs and infrastructure availability in Indonesia.

BRI Danareksa Research

Astra International - Lowering FY24-25F Est. And TP Amid Weaker Auto Sales Outlook

4M24 2W sales reached 2.1m units (-1% yoy; inline), while 4W wholesales remained weak at 263k units (-23% yoy, below our f’cast)

BRI Danareksa Research

Astra International (ASII IJ) - Striking a Balance with Finance

Astra continues to mirror the Indonesian economy, with its latest investment in geothermal but its nickel businesses also growing. Valuations...

Angus Mackintosh