Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX Rallies as Earnings take centre stage; Telsa rips as Musk see 2m in Sales; Auto Semis in Play as STMicro beats - lifts sector; Seagate at turning point</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY Steady at 130.22; Baton gets passed at Toyota; Double D/G of Shippers downgrade to Sell ; EARNINGS TODAY: All about Fanuc</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Toyota - End of an Era, and the start of another. We expect new CEO Sato to accelerate the EV shift !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX Rallies as Earnings take centre stage; Telsa rips as Musk see 2m in Sales; Auto Semis in Play as STMicro beats - lifts sector; Seagate at turning point
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY Steady at 130.22; Baton gets passed at Toyota; Double D/G of Shippers downgrade to Sell ; EARNINGS TODAY: All about Fanuc
DAILY NUGGET. Toyota - End of an Era, and the start of another. We expect new CEO Sato to accelerate the EV shift !


Good Morning Japan |Earnings Bonanaza! ; Tesla Rips; AutoSemis in Play;Toyoda @Toyota Passes Baton

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Given recent corporate events in S-REIT land, there could be some considerable money to be allocated to the sector near-term</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> issued an announcement it would pursue a primary listing on the HKEX. This will make BABA Southbound-eligible</li>
<li>At 0.81x newly-lowered book value, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-unity-office-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24077:1" rel="noopener">Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU)</a> is trading at a relatively low multiple. </li>
</ul>


Given recent corporate events in S-REIT land, there could be some considerable money to be allocated to the sector near-term

Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) / Alibaba Group (9988 HK) issued an announcement it would pursue a primary listing on the HKEX. This will make BABA Southbound-eligible
At 0.81x newly-lowered book value, Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU) is trading at a relatively low multiple. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mapletree, Alibaba, Australian Unity Office

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a> reported Q1 earnings after the close on 27 July, and they blew the lights out. Higher margins and 10-year record high Q1 progression ratios.</li>
<li>The company also announced guidance which was pretty healthy, but progression ratios suggest it is conservative.</li>
<li>The company announced its second ¥100bn buyback in three months. This one lasts 6 months so impact will be lower, but it will have some impact.</li>
</ul>



Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) reported Q1 earnings after the close on 27 July, and they blew the lights out. Higher margins and 10-year record high Q1 progression ratios.
The company also announced guidance which was pretty healthy, but progression ratios suggest it is conservative.
The company announced its second ¥100bn buyback in three months. This one lasts 6 months so impact will be lower, but it will have some impact.


Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) Salutary Earnings, Conservative Forecasts, and Another Buyback

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shin-Etsu results were mostly in-line with revenue beating by 5% and OP both within 1% of consensus and just a touch above guidance.</li>
<li>OP was about 6% weaker than our estimate however driven by the Electronic Materials business. </li>
<li>The lack of guidance may worry some investors but trends look positive enough that results should end up materially above consensus.</li>
</ul>


Shin-Etsu results were mostly in-line with revenue beating by 5% and OP both within 1% of consensus and just a touch above guidance.
OP was about 6% weaker than our estimate however driven by the Electronic Materials business. 
The lack of guidance may worry some investors but trends look positive enough that results should end up materially above consensus.


Shin-Etsu – FY23 Could Put Shin-Etsu Within a Step of ¥1trn in OP

<ul>
<li>After initially grinding up slowly but underperforming the Nikkei our suggested skew trade gave up ground during the new year sell off.</li>
<li>It did so slowly, however and was outperforming Nikkei when last we checked despite being down slightly. </li>
<li>Thankfully, a lot of the idiosyncratic volatility hurting the skew trade has reversed now and it is positive and outperforming Nikkei consistently.</li>
</ul>


After initially grinding up slowly but underperforming the Nikkei our suggested skew trade gave up ground during the new year sell off.
It did so slowly, however and was outperforming Nikkei when last we checked despite being down slightly. 
Thankfully, a lot of the idiosyncratic volatility hurting the skew trade has reversed now and it is positive and outperforming Nikkei consistently.


TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Starting to Work Nicely

Japan

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. produces and distributes synthetic resins and other chemical products such as fertilizers. The Company also manufactures electronic materials such as semiconductor silicon, synthetic, and rare earth quartz. Shin-Etsu Chemical operates in Japan and overseas.

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Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)

Good Morning Japan |Earnings Bonanaza! ; Tesla Rips; AutoSemis in Play;Toyoda @Toyota Passes Baton

JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; Baton gets passed at Toyota; Double D/G of Shippers downgrade to Sell ; EARNINGS TODAY: All about Fanuc.

Mark Chadwick

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mapletree, Alibaba, Australian Unity Office

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett