Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

*Islamic Banking Merger In Indonesia: Bank Rakyat Indonesia’s (BBRI.IJ) Islamic banking subsidiary, Bank BRI Syariah (BRIS.IJ) announced that it had signed a conditional merger agreement related to the proposed merger with two other Indonesian state bank Islamic banking subsidiaries including Bank Mandiri Syah (BMRI.IJ) [BSM] and Bank BNI Syariah (BBNI.IJ) [BNIS]; and*National Champion To Compete Globally: Sharia-compliance is regarded as the foundation of Islamic banking. With the largest Muslim population globally at 228 mn, it would make sense that Indonesia should have a national champion which is sharia-compliant. In the case of Indonesia, there are currently 14 sharia-compliant commercial bank with IDR 353 tn (USD 24 bn) in assets or about 4.2% of system-wide assets.  The proposed merger would create a new entity with over INR 200 bn – which could place it amongst the world’s largest global competitors for Islamic finance. We’d also anticipate the development global sukuk (Islamic debt) underwriting for local Indonesian companies.

*Islamic Banking Merger In Indonesia: Bank Rakyat Indonesia’s (BBRI.IJ) Islamic banking subsidiary, Bank BRI Syariah (BRIS.IJ) announced that it had signed a conditional merger agreement related to the proposed merger with two other Indonesian state bank Islamic banking subsidiaries including Bank Mandiri Syah (BMRI.IJ) [BSM] and Bank BNI Syariah (BBNI.IJ) [BNIS]; and*National Champion To Compete Globally: Sharia-compliance is regarded as the foundation of Islamic banking. With the largest Muslim population globally at 228 mn, it would make sense that Indonesia should have a national champion which is sharia-compliant. In the case of Indonesia, there are currently 14 sharia-compliant commercial bank with IDR 353 tn (USD 24 bn) in assets or about 4.2% of system-wide assets.  The proposed merger would create a new entity with over INR 200 bn – which could place it amongst the world’s largest global competitors for Islamic finance. We’d also anticipate the development global sukuk (Islamic debt) underwriting for local Indonesian companies. 

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

A call with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> revealed a relatively positive message on a number of fronts, which came as a rare positive surprise. 
The bank has made good progress on asset quality, with growth in restructured loans flattening out with no change since the end of 2Q2020. There was no resurgence of problem loans since new PSBB measures were imposed and we have now just returned to the new normal. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> remains confident that credit costs are like to come in at the lower end of its FY2020 guidance at 2.5%.
Loan growth between June-August has been weak with a declining balance due to early repayments in the corporate segment, with some SOEs receiving funding from the government, which they have used to repay loans with banks.  
Retail lending has been quiet although there has been some pick up in mortgages and some improvement in auto loans. 
The bank has significantly reduced its time deposit rates to around 3.5% with a 200bp reduction, which will feed through to higher net interest income, especially in 4Q2020. 
We also look at the potential listing for the bank's Syariah business in the not too distant future. 
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> is trading on 1.3x FY2020E PBV versus its 5-year average of 1.8x, with its ROE forecast to recover to 12.7% in FY21E on the back of a +61.8% EPS growth. The announcement of the new management team and its 3Q2020, will both provide positive catalysts over the next month. The fact that credit costs are under control should be a further positive catalyst for the bank. 
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A call with Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) revealed a relatively positive message on a number of fronts, which came as a rare positive surprise. 
The bank has made good progress on asset quality, with growth in restructured loans flattening out with no change since the end of 2Q2020. There was no resurgence of problem loans since new PSBB measures were imposed and we have now just returned to the new normal. 
Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) remains confident that credit costs are like to come in at the lower end of its FY2020 guidance at 2.5%.
Loan growth between June-August has been weak with a declining balance due to early repayments in the corporate segment, with some SOEs receiving funding from the government, which they have used to repay loans with banks.  
Retail lending has been quiet although there has been some pick up in mortgages and some improvement in auto loans. 
The bank has significantly reduced its time deposit rates to around 3.5% with a 200bp reduction, which will feed through to higher net interest income, especially in 4Q2020. 
We also look at the potential listing for the bank's Syariah business in the not too distant future. 

Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) is trading on 1.3x FY2020E PBV versus its 5-year average of 1.8x, with its ROE forecast to recover to 12.7% in FY21E on the back of a +61.8% EPS growth. The announcement of the new management team and its 3Q2020, will both provide positive catalysts over the next month. The fact that credit costs are under control should be a further positive catalyst for the bank. 


Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Plethora of Good News

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vietnam-in-robust-health-despite-transient-threat-of-us-s301-action" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43795" rel="noopener">Vietnam in Robust Health Despite Transient Threat of US S301 Action,</a> CrossASEAN Chief Economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/prasenjit-k-basu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612" rel="noopener">Prasenjit K. Basu</a> zeros IN on the Vietnamese economy, which has been a key beneficiary of trade diversion from China. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-exports-covid-best-is-behind" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44020" rel="noopener">Asian Exports &amp; COVID - Best Is Behind,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sharmila-whelan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1728" rel="noopener">Sharmila Whelan</a> looks at the prospects for Asian Exports and sees a less attractive outlook ahead. <h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3>In Indonesia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/media-nusantara-citra-mncn-ij-no-credit-given-for-metamorphosis" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) - No Credit Given for Metamorphosis</a>, CrossASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> examines an aggressive sell-off in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a> share price, despite announcing a reasonable set of 2Q2020 results, with especially strong growth coming from its digital advertising through RCTI+ and its YouTube Multichannel Network (MCN), which now has a staggering 101m subscribers.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indomobil-sukses-internasional-imas-ij-emerging-transport-monolith" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43927" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) Emerging Transport Monolith?,</a> CrossASEAN insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indomobil-sukses-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11738:1" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ),</a> which is making meaningful progress towards being a leader in automotive and transport.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mestika-dharma-september-quarter-reversals-surge" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44089" rel="noopener">Bank Mestika Dharma – September Quarter Reversals Surge,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> zeros in on this small Indonesian lender, which is one of the first to report earnings and reported an improvement and reversal of credit costs. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ammb-top-decile-ph-score-and-vfm-asset" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44065" rel="noopener">AMMB: Top Decile PH Score™ and VFM Asset,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/paul-hollingworth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2554" rel="noopener">Paul Hollingworth</a> zeros in on this Malaysia lender were he find a promising outlook and attractive valuations under his model.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener"></a>In Singapore,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trade-ideas-for-singapore-reits-implications-from-cct-cmt-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trade Ideas for Singapore REITs - Implications from CCT+CMT Merger</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Sumeet Singh</a> takes a look at the long drawn out merger of CCT+CMT finally approved with minimal resistance, with the little there was coming mostly from CCT holders, the combined entity will add to the bunch of listed REITs which offer a mix of office and retail exposure. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-diy-ipo-store-expansion-still-going-strong-undemanding-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43929" rel="noopener">MR DIY IPO - Store Expansion Still Going Strong, Undemanding Valuation,</a> IPO specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/zhen-zhou-toh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:673" rel="noopener">Zhen Zhou, Toh</a> revisits this IPO looking at its growth prospects and valuation. In Malaysia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-d-i-y-group-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Mr. D.I.Y. Group IPO: Valuation Insights</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Arun George</a> provides a view on why he believes that an attractive valuation and solid cornerstone support makes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mr-d-i-y-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28430:1" rel="noopener">MR D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK)</a> IPO tempting at the proposed price. In Malaysia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-diy-ipo-quality-homes" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> MR DIY IPO: Quality Homes</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/shifara-samsudeen-acma-cgma" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Shifara Samsudeen</a> takes an initial look at Malaysia's home improvement retailer Mr. D.I.Y.  which has filed for an IPO which will raise approximately RM1.5bn (US$362m), the largest listing in three years in Malaysia. The company has set the price at RM1.60 per share and is expected to list the IPO on the 14th of October.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-diy-ipo-inexpensive-valuation-compared-to-peers-despite-better-growth-profile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44019" rel="noopener">MR DIY IPO: Inexpensive Valuation Compared to Peers Despite Better Growth Profile,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/shifara-samsudeen-acma-cgma" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3297" rel="noopener">Shifara Samsudeen,</a> provides us with her views on this upcoming Malaysian IPO. In Thailand,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kerry-express-best-inc-two-approaches-to-ecommerce-logistics-growth-in-se-asia" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express &amp; Best Inc: Two Approaches to ECommerce Logistics Growth in SE Asia</a> examines the different approaches pursued in eCommerce fulfillment in SE Asia by the upcoming IPO<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> and by<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/best-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> BEST Inc (BEST US). </a>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bgrim-positive-sentiments-from-joining-hands-with-pea-encom" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43897" rel="noopener">BGRIM: Positive Sentiments from Joining Hands with PEA ENCOM,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> expect the cooperation with PEA ENCOM will help <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b-grimm-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23996:1" rel="noopener">B Grimm Power (BGRIM TB)</a> to expand the SPP (Small Power Producer) client base and have synergy benefits of up to THB1.0bn from cost-saving and service efficiency. <h3>Sector and Thematic</h3>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-banks-positives-clouded-but-persist" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Indonesia Banks – Positives Clouded, But Persist</a>, banking specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Daniel Tabbush</a> discusses why the country's credit penetration remains low and margins remain higher than almost any other country. Due to the ill-conceived interruption of economies and a more conservative bank system due to the financial crisis in 1997, credit growth is now lower in Indonesia than in most other Asian-Pacific countries. In Thailand,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/silicon-stories-m-if-you-can-t-beat-them-join-them" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Silicon Stories M: If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them</a>, Thai specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-ayudhya-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:136:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB)</a>,  which has realized that it is easier to partner with Internet startups than build businesses from scratch. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sti-index-rebalance-in-the-race-to-replace-cct-finally-some-daylight-emerges" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43862" rel="noopener">STI Index Rebalance: In the Race to Replace CCT, Finally Some Daylight Emerges,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> looks at the upcoming Singapore STI Index rebalancing. <h3>Credit Insights</h3>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bank-capital-constraints-debt-capital-issuance-needs-and-potential-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Bank Capital Constraints, Debt Capital Issuance Needs, and Potential Impact,</a> Credit Specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Hank Calenti, CFA</a> discusses the potential for further capital issuance by Thai banks following<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a>'s recent bond issue. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bank-capital-and-chronic-covid-19-sensitivity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44011" rel="noopener">Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:5194" rel="noopener">Hank Calenti, CFA</a> dives into the potential scenarios for Thai Banks should COVID-19 loan relief decay become chronic. In Indonesia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-plight-of-the-garuda" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> The Plight of the Garuda</a>, Credit Specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/derek-silva" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Derek Silva</a>,  examines Garuda's financial condition, which is now becoming critical.


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  
Macro InsightsIn Vietnam in Robust Health Despite Transient Threat of US S301 Action, CrossASEAN Chief Economist Prasenjit K. Basu zeros IN on the Vietnamese economy, which has been a key beneficiary of trade diversion from China. In Asian Exports &amp; COVID - Best Is Behind,Sharmila Whelan looks at the prospects for Asian Exports and sees a less attractive outlook ahead. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Indonesia, Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) - No Credit Given for Metamorphosis, CrossASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh examines an aggressive sell-off in Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) share price, despite announcing a reasonable set of 2Q2020 results, with especially strong growth coming from its digital advertising through RCTI+ and its YouTube Multichannel Network (MCN), which now has a staggering 101m subscribers.  In Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) Emerging Transport Monolith?, CrossASEAN insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ), which is making meaningful progress towards being a leader in automotive and transport.In Bank Mestika Dharma – September Quarter Reversals Surge, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush zeros in on this small Indonesian lender, which is one of the first to report earnings and reported an improvement and reversal of credit costs. In AMMB: Top Decile PH Score™ and VFM Asset,Paul Hollingworth zeros in on this Malaysia lender were he find a promising outlook and attractive valuations under his model.In Singapore, Trade Ideas for Singapore REITs - Implications from CCT+CMT Merger, Sumeet Singh takes a look at the long drawn out merger of CCT+CMT finally approved with minimal resistance, with the little there was coming mostly from CCT holders, the combined entity will add to the bunch of listed REITs which offer a mix of office and retail exposure. In MR DIY IPO - Store Expansion Still Going Strong, Undemanding Valuation, IPO specialist Zhen Zhou, Toh revisits this IPO looking at its growth prospects and valuation. In Malaysia, Mr. D.I.Y. Group IPO: Valuation Insights, Arun George provides a view on why he believes that an attractive valuation and solid cornerstone support makes MR D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK) IPO tempting at the proposed price. In Malaysia, MR DIY IPO: Quality Homes, Shifara Samsudeen takes an initial look at Malaysia's home improvement retailer Mr. D.I.Y.  which has filed for an IPO which will raise approximately RM1.5bn (US$362m), the largest listing in three years in Malaysia. The company has set the price at RM1.60 per share and is expected to list the IPO on the 14th of October.In MR DIY IPO: Inexpensive Valuation Compared to Peers Despite Better Growth Profile,Shifara Samsudeen, provides us with her views on this upcoming Malaysian IPO. In Thailand, Kerry Express &amp; Best Inc: Two Approaches to ECommerce Logistics Growth in SE Asia examines the different approaches pursued in eCommerce fulfillment in SE Asia by the upcoming IPO Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) and by BEST Inc (BEST US). In BGRIM: Positive Sentiments from Joining Hands with PEA ENCOM, our friends at Country Group expect the cooperation with PEA ENCOM will help B Grimm Power (BGRIM TB) to expand the SPP (Small Power Producer) client base and have synergy benefits of up to THB1.0bn from cost-saving and service efficiency. Sector and ThematicIn Indonesia Banks – Positives Clouded, But Persist, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush discusses why the country's credit penetration remains low and margins remain higher than almost any other country. Due to the ill-conceived interruption of economies and a more conservative bank system due to the financial crisis in 1997, credit growth is now lower in Indonesia than in most other Asian-Pacific countries. In Thailand, Silicon Stories M: If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them, Thai specialist Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a look at Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB),  which has realized that it is easier to partner with Internet startups than build businesses from scratch. In STI Index Rebalance: In the Race to Replace CCT, Finally Some Daylight Emerges,Brian Freitas looks at the upcoming Singapore STI Index rebalancing. Credit InsightsIn Thai Bank Capital Constraints, Debt Capital Issuance Needs, and Potential Impact, Credit Specialist Hank Calenti, CFA discusses the potential for further capital issuance by Thai banks following Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)'s recent bond issue. In Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity,Hank Calenti, CFA dives into the potential scenarios for Thai Banks should COVID-19 loan relief decay become chronic. In Indonesia, The Plight of the Garuda, Credit Specialist Derek Silva,  examines Garuda's financial condition, which is now becoming critical. 

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Omnibus Laws, Credit Costs, and Mr DIY

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It can be easy to forget about the stand-out positives of some of Asia’s banks in the current environment, one driven by fear fueled policies and what would normally be considered pure lunacy. Indonesia has just announced another stimulus package, as has been the pattern in most regions. Where credit penetration remains low and where margins remain higher than most any other country, profit may positively surprise.

It can be easy to forget about the stand-out positives of some of Asia’s banks in the current environment, one driven by fear fueled policies and what would normally be considered pure lunacy. Indonesia has just announced another stimulus package, as has been the pattern in most regions. Where credit penetration remains low and where margins remain higher than most any other country, profit may positively surprise.

Indonesia Banks – Positives Clouded, But Persist

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

With Thailand's tourism industry devastated by the lockdown imposed to contain the spread of COVID-19, Thailand's banks have been sold off due to their exposure to small and medium enterprises (SME) that have links to the tourism industry.The selloff has resulted in the Thai bank stocks trading at prices significantly lower than their book value, and at big discounts to their peers in Indonesia and the Philippines.With a larger exposure to SMEs, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> has underperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a> and the gradual reopening of the borders could result in the stock outperforming in the near future. With the stock trading close to its lows versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a>, we see the reward to risk of buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> vs its peers to be favourable.

With Thailand's tourism industry devastated by the lockdown imposed to contain the spread of COVID-19, Thailand's banks have been sold off due to their exposure to small and medium enterprises (SME) that have links to the tourism industry.The selloff has resulted in the Thai bank stocks trading at prices significantly lower than their book value, and at big discounts to their peers in Indonesia and the Philippines.With a larger exposure to SMEs, Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) has underperformed Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) and the gradual reopening of the borders could result in the stock outperforming in the near future. With the stock trading close to its lows versus Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) and Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ), we see the reward to risk of buying Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) vs its peers to be favourable.

Indonesia

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk is formed by the merger of four state-owned banks, namely Pt Bank Bumi Daya, PT Bank Dagang Negara, PT Bank Ekspor Import Indonesia (Bank Exim), PT Bank Pembangunan Indonesia (Bank Bapindo). The Bank operates in the commercial banking services.

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Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)