Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining</li>
<li>Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis</li>
<li>ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue</li>
</ul>


BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining
Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis
ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue


2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>BMRI booked a robust net profit of Rp15.5tr in 3Q24, bringing 9M24 net profit to Rp42.0tr (+8% yoy), in line with our and consensus FY24F ests.</li><li>Funding remained challenging, but earnings were supported by strong loan growth and improving asset quality, allowing for a low CoC.</li><li>Maintain Buy with a TP of Rp8,200 derived from GGM model based on 5-year inverse CoE of 10.3%, LTG of 3%, and FY25F RoE of 21.2%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BMRI booked a robust net profit of Rp15.5tr in 3Q24, bringing 9M24 net profit to Rp42.0tr (+8% yoy), in line with our and consensus FY24F ests.Funding remained challenging, but earnings were supported by strong loan growth and improving asset quality, allowing for a low CoC.Maintain Buy with a TP of Rp8,200 derived from GGM model based on 5-year inverse CoE of 10.3%, LTG of 3%, and FY25F RoE of 21.2%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Mandiri - 3Q24 Earnings: Strong Profitability Supported by Loan Growth and Asset Quality

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri's</a> recent results reflect the success of the bank's strategy to grow higher-yielding loans and its strength in corporate, commercial, and consumer loans, with micro showing slower growth.</li>
<li>The bank funding base remains solid with strong CASA growth, helping it to maintain NIMs. Mandiri's mobile banking under Livin' continues to drive its transactional banking, loan and deposit growth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri</a>'s upgrade to its loan growth projects speaks volumes about its confidence. With credit costs at less than 1% and ample liquidity, the bank is well-positioned for growth.</li>
</ul>



Bank Mandiri's recent results reflect the success of the bank's strategy to grow higher-yielding loans and its strength in corporate, commercial, and consumer loans, with micro showing slower growth.
The bank funding base remains solid with strong CASA growth, helping it to maintain NIMs. Mandiri's mobile banking under Livin' continues to drive its transactional banking, loan and deposit growth.

Bank Mandiri's upgrade to its loan growth projects speaks volumes about its confidence. With credit costs at less than 1% and ample liquidity, the bank is well-positioned for growth.


Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) - Escalating Returns and Lower Credit Costs

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>NPAT reached IDR13.8tn in 2Q24 (+9.0% QoQ/ +9.3% YoY), primarily driven by a slight uptick in NII (+3% QoQ), manageable operating and credit costs (-21bps).</li><li>Subsidiaries, particularly BSI, also played a significant role in this earnings improvement.</li><li>▪ Loan surged by +6.8% QoQ/+20.5% YoY in 1H24, supported by corporate segment (+30% YoY) &amp; commercial (+22% YoY).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NPAT reached IDR13.8tn in 2Q24 (+9.0% QoQ/ +9.3% YoY), primarily driven by a slight uptick in NII (+3% QoQ), manageable operating and credit costs (-21bps).Subsidiaries, particularly BSI, also played a significant role in this earnings improvement.▪ Loan surged by +6.8% QoQ/+20.5% YoY in 1H24, supported by corporate segment (+30% YoY) &amp; commercial (+22% YoY).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PT Bank Mandiri Tbk - Loan Growth Fuel Success, Guidance Upgraded

<ul><li>Net profit reached IDR13.8tn in 2Q24 (+9.0% QoQ/ +9.3% YoY), bringing 1H24 NPAT to IDR26.6tn (+5.2% YoY), slightly in-line with our and consensus' estimates which implies ~47%/48% of FY24E target.</li><li>The slight uptick in NII (+3% QoQ), combined with manageable operating and credit costs (-21bps), contributed to the earnings improvement during 2Q24.</li><li>Moreover, the solid performance of its subsidiaries, particularly Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI), contributed significantly to the solid earnings in 2Q24.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Net profit reached IDR13.8tn in 2Q24 (+9.0% QoQ/ +9.3% YoY), bringing 1H24 NPAT to IDR26.6tn (+5.2% YoY), slightly in-line with our and consensus' estimates which implies ~47%/48% of FY24E target.The slight uptick in NII (+3% QoQ), combined with manageable operating and credit costs (-21bps), contributed to the earnings improvement during 2Q24.Moreover, the solid performance of its subsidiaries, particularly Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI), contributed significantly to the solid earnings in 2Q24.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI IJ) - Loan Growth Fuel Success, Guidance Upgraded

Indonesia

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk is formed by the merger of four state-owned banks, namely Pt Bank Bumi Daya, PT Bank Dagang Negara, PT Bank Ekspor Import Indonesia (Bank Exim), PT Bank Pembangunan Indonesia (Bank Bapindo). The Bank operates in the commercial banking services.

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Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)

2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

BMRI is taking market share of loans, growing strongly, with no worsening in credit metrics. Slightly lower NIM is offset by higher fees, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Mandiri - 3Q24 Earnings: Strong Profitability Supported by Loan Growth and Asset Quality

BMRI booked a robust net profit of Rp15.5tr in 3Q24, bringing 9M24 net profit to Rp42.0tr (+8% yoy), in line with our and consensus FY24F ests.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) - Escalating Returns and Lower Credit Costs

Bank Mandiri's upgrade to its loan growth projects speaks volumes about its confidence. With credit costs at less than 1% and ample liquidity, the...

Angus Mackintosh

PT Bank Mandiri Tbk - Loan Growth Fuel Success, Guidance Upgraded

NPAT reached IDR13.8tn in 2Q24 (+9.0% QoQ/ +9.3% YoY), primarily driven by a slight uptick in NII (+3% QoQ), manageable operating and credit costs...

MNC Sekuritas

PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI IJ) - Loan Growth Fuel Success, Guidance Upgraded

Net profit reached IDR13.8tn in 2Q24 (+9.0% QoQ/ +9.3% YoY), bringing 1H24 NPAT to IDR26.6tn (+5.2% YoY), slightly in-line with our and consensus'...

MNC Sekuritas

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