Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining</li>
<li>Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis</li>
<li>ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue</li>
</ul>


BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining
Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis
ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue


2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri's</a> recent results reflect the success of the bank's strategy to grow higher-yielding loans and its strength in corporate, commercial, and consumer loans, with micro showing slower growth.</li>
<li>The bank funding base remains solid with strong CASA growth, helping it to maintain NIMs. Mandiri's mobile banking under Livin' continues to drive its transactional banking, loan and deposit growth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri</a>'s upgrade to its loan growth projects speaks volumes about its confidence. With credit costs at less than 1% and ample liquidity, the bank is well-positioned for growth.</li>
</ul>



Bank Mandiri's recent results reflect the success of the bank's strategy to grow higher-yielding loans and its strength in corporate, commercial, and consumer loans, with micro showing slower growth.
The bank funding base remains solid with strong CASA growth, helping it to maintain NIMs. Mandiri's mobile banking under Livin' continues to drive its transactional banking, loan and deposit growth.

Bank Mandiri's upgrade to its loan growth projects speaks volumes about its confidence. With credit costs at less than 1% and ample liquidity, the bank is well-positioned for growth.


Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) - Escalating Returns and Lower Credit Costs

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. </li>
<li>GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the company's valuation.</li>
</ul>


GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. 
GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.
In this note, we will talk about the company's valuation.


GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

<ul>
<li>It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. </li>
<li>NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. </li>
<li>Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. </li>
</ul>


It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. 
NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. 
Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. 


Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Bank Mandiri is our top pick for its quality attributes, its premium and growing pre- and post-provision returns; Mandiri provides a better valuations to returns mix than Bank Central Asia</li>
<li>Bank Negara is the value pick with its low PE multiples, its attractive PEG ratio, whilst also improving pre- and post-provision returns with cost of risk well controlled</li>
<li>Bank Rakyat registered worsening pre- and post-provision returns in 4Q23, with cost of risk worsening; this reflects its heavily MSME focused loan mix which keeps structural cost of risk high</li>
</ul>


Bank Mandiri is our top pick for its quality attributes, its premium and growing pre- and post-provision returns; Mandiri provides a better valuations to returns mix than Bank Central Asia
Bank Negara is the value pick with its low PE multiples, its attractive PEG ratio, whilst also improving pre- and post-provision returns with cost of risk well controlled
Bank Rakyat registered worsening pre- and post-provision returns in 4Q23, with cost of risk worsening; this reflects its heavily MSME focused loan mix which keeps structural cost of risk high


Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

Indonesia

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk is formed by the merger of four state-owned banks, namely Pt Bank Bumi Daya, PT Bank Dagang Negara, PT Bank Ekspor Import Indonesia (Bank Exim), PT Bank Pembangunan Indonesia (Bank Bapindo). The Bank operates in the commercial banking services.

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Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)

2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

BMRI is taking market share of loans, growing strongly, with no worsening in credit metrics. Slightly lower NIM is offset by higher fees, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) - Escalating Returns and Lower Credit Costs

Bank Mandiri's upgrade to its loan growth projects speaks volumes about its confidence. With credit costs at less than 1% and ample liquidity, the...

Angus Mackintosh

GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. In this note, we talk about its...

Sumeet Singh

Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

BMRI reveals cyclical and structural strength to such as a degree that its ROA is highest in its history. Loan growth, NPL decline, lower operating...

Daniel Tabbush

Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

Mandiri is our quality top pick with better valuations to returns mix than BCA, value pick Negara has low PE ratios and improving returns....

Victor Galliano

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2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

BMRI is taking market share of loans, growing strongly, with no worsening in credit metrics. Slightly lower NIM is offset by higher fees, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) - Escalating Returns and Lower Credit Costs

Bank Mandiri's upgrade to its loan growth projects speaks volumes about its confidence. With credit costs at less than 1% and ample liquidity, the...

Angus Mackintosh

GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. In this note, we talk about its...

Sumeet Singh

Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

BMRI reveals cyclical and structural strength to such as a degree that its ROA is highest in its history. Loan growth, NPL decline, lower operating...

Daniel Tabbush

Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

​Mandiri is our quality top pick with better valuations to returns mix than BCA, value pick Negara has low PE ratios and improving returns....

Victor Galliano

Mandiri is our quality top pick with better valuations to returns mix than BCA, value pick Negara has low PE ratios and improving returns....