Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.</p><p>For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> there are 3 inclusions - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a>.</p><p>The 3 inclusions will increase the number of index constituents to 58. With the target of getting to 80 stocks by mid-2022, the expectation was for more stocks to be included at this review. What likely resulted in fewer stocks being added was the large turnover due to the capping changes.</p><p>While we had expected the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a>, the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> will have a big impact since the stock has also been included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>. </p><p>One-way turnover is estimated at 7.77% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$16.82bn.  The largest passive inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> as a result of the capping change from 5% to 8%, while the largest outflows will be from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> due to the capping change from 10% to 8%.</p><p>There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes and we expect all 3 inclusions to open higher on Monday and continue to outperform the market over the period.</p>

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.For the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) there are 3 inclusions - Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK).The 3 inclusions will increase the number of index constituents to 58. With the target of getting to 80 stocks by mid-2022, the expectation was for more stocks to be included at this review. What likely resulted in fewer stocks being added was the large turnover due to the capping changes.While we had expected the inclusion of Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) and Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK), the inclusion of BYD (1211 HK) will have a big impact since the stock has also been included in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX). One-way turnover is estimated at 7.77% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$16.82bn.  The largest passive inflows will be on Meituan (3690 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK) as a result of the capping change from 5% to 8%, while the largest outflows will be from AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK) and HSBC Holdings (5 HK) due to the capping change from 10% to 8%.There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes and we expect all 3 inclusions to open higher on Monday and continue to outperform the market over the period.

HSI Index Rebalance: Only 3 Additions but BIG Turnover

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: justify;">In this Smartkarma Original, we seek to study how diversity and incentives influence stock performance and profitability. We tallied diversity and incentive data related to the board of directors, management, and employees across major economies in Asia and picked top 10 companies of each country in terms of market capitalization. We chose to exclude major companies listed in exchanges of other economies such as Tencent and Alibaba to limit our sample size.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Then we devised diversity and incentive scores to assign to those companies and compare those scores against a 5-year trend of their return on shareholders’ equity (ROE) ratios and 1-year stock performance from 1-July-19 to 30-June-20 over its corresponding exchange indices.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The report covers diversity vs. incentives in Asia, diversity score vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, incentives vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, diversity + incentives scores vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, companies with top and bottom diversity + incentive scores, countries with top and bottom average diversity + incentive scores, and incentive score vs. staffing cost trend. </p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The results show that companies with high diversity scores do perform well. A high diversity score also has a positive impact on the ROE trend, based on our regression analysis at 95% confidence level. We found that employee incentives are not significant as staff diversity but they can still have an influence on company performances at a lower 90% confidence level.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">We note that this study is at the preliminary stage and stock performance is a function of many factors, not only the diversity scores that we concluded. Needless to say, our diversity and incentive scores also reflect the level of disclosures by selected companies, not necessarily the actual practice within each company. Our diversity and incentive scores are also not a credit rating or ranking with peers and, hence, do not reflect default probability of selected companies.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">We caution that in Asia, many diversity trends in the West may not apply. The fact that many Asian business communities may remain less sensitive to equal opportunities for females, disabled persons, or LGBTQ communities could make returns of Asian companies less correlated to diversity than in the West. Likewise, additional incentives in some countries in Asia may not be necessary as employees’ strong performance (i.e. in Japan) is a norm, according to the prevalent work culture.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Bondcritic is developing a scoring model, which includes environment, social development, and corporate governance; the last of which cover diversity and incentives. This report is the first of the series to uncover shenanigans in the Asian corporate sector.</p>

In this Smartkarma Original, we seek to study how diversity and incentives influence stock performance and profitability. We tallied diversity and incentive data related to the board of directors, management, and employees across major economies in Asia and picked top 10 companies of each country in terms of market capitalization. We chose to exclude major companies listed in exchanges of other economies such as Tencent and Alibaba to limit our sample size.
Then we devised diversity and incentive scores to assign to those companies and compare those scores against a 5-year trend of their return on shareholders’ equity (ROE) ratios and 1-year stock performance from 1-July-19 to 30-June-20 over its corresponding exchange indices.
The report covers diversity vs. incentives in Asia, diversity score vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, incentives vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, diversity + incentives scores vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, companies with top and bottom diversity + incentive scores, countries with top and bottom average diversity + incentive scores, and incentive score vs. staffing cost trend. 
The results show that companies with high diversity scores do perform well. A high diversity score also has a positive impact on the ROE trend, based on our regression analysis at 95% confidence level. We found that employee incentives are not significant as staff diversity but they can still have an influence on company performances at a lower 90% confidence level.
We note that this study is at the preliminary stage and stock performance is a function of many factors, not only the diversity scores that we concluded. Needless to say, our diversity and incentive scores also reflect the level of disclosures by selected companies, not necessarily the actual practice within each company. Our diversity and incentive scores are also not a credit rating or ranking with peers and, hence, do not reflect default probability of selected companies.
We caution that in Asia, many diversity trends in the West may not apply. The fact that many Asian business communities may remain less sensitive to equal opportunities for females, disabled persons, or LGBTQ communities could make returns of Asian companies less correlated to diversity than in the West. Likewise, additional incentives in some countries in Asia may not be necessary as employees’ strong performance (i.e. in Japan) is a norm, according to the prevalent work culture.
Bondcritic is developing a scoring model, which includes environment, social development, and corporate governance; the last of which cover diversity and incentives. This report is the first of the series to uncover shenanigans in the Asian corporate sector.

Asian Governance: Diversity & Incentives Through the Cultural Lens

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Last Week in Event SPACE: Softbank, Reliance, Metlifecare, Sony Financial, Towngas, United Spirits

<p>A Reporter of Deals flagged the possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-china-gas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:375:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong &amp; China Gas (3 HK)</a> taking gas distributor  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/towngas-china-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10771:1" rel="noopener">Towngas China (1083 HK)</a>, currently 67.76%-held, private. </p>
<p>Towngas is not terribly liquid with respect to its market cap, and the recommendation in the past, from some corners, was that HKCG should sell down its interest to improve liquidity. Instead, HKCG has continued to chip away at Towngas over the years via scrip dividends.</p>
<p>Towngas is trading at a multi-year low for what is a relatively stable business. However, as noted in <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0414/2020041400724.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2019 annual report</a>, consumer spending and production have declined significantly in China since COVID-19, leading to a material fall in demand for gas and water in commercial and industrial sectors, and in turn impacting the results of Towngas. </p>
<p>A privatisation? Perhaps. The benefits to HKCG are apparent.</p>
<p>A clutch of thoughts and musings before the line.</p>

A Reporter of Deals flagged the possibility of Hong Kong &amp; China Gas (3 HK) taking gas distributor  Towngas China (1083 HK), currently 67.76%-held, private. 
Towngas is not terribly liquid with respect to its market cap, and the recommendation in the past, from some corners, was that HKCG should sell down its interest to improve liquidity. Instead, HKCG has continued to chip away at Towngas over the years via scrip dividends.
Towngas is trading at a multi-year low for what is a relatively stable business. However, as noted in 2019 annual report, consumer spending and production have declined significantly in China since COVID-19, leading to a material fall in demand for gas and water in commercial and industrial sectors, and in turn impacting the results of Towngas. 
A privatisation? Perhaps. The benefits to HKCG are apparent.
A clutch of thoughts and musings before the line.

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsoft-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:492:1" rel="noopener">Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK)</a>'s 43.6%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsoft-cloud" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28835:1" rel="noopener">Kingsoft Cloud (KC US)</a> has gained 53% since its debut last Friday - but Kingsoft Corp is trading flat after the IPO.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ch-karnchang-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7587:1" rel="noopener">Ch. Karnchang Public (CK TB)</a>'s implied stub nudges multi-year lows amidst construction backlog woes. </p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Kingsoft and CH Karnchang are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK)'s 43.6%-held Kingsoft Cloud (KC US) has gained 53% since its debut last Friday - but Kingsoft Corp is trading flat after the IPO.
Ch. Karnchang Public (CK TB)'s implied stub nudges multi-year lows amidst construction backlog woes. 

Preceding my comments on Kingsoft and CH Karnchang are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.



These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.



StubWorld: Kingsoft Not In the Cloud; CH Karnchang Tests New Lows

Hong Kong

The Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited produces, distributes, and markets gas and gas appliances to residential and industrial customers through its brands.The Company's subsidiaries develops gas projects in China and manages commercial properties.

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Hong Kong & China Gas (3 HK)

HSI Index Rebalance: Only 3 Additions but BIG Turnover

There are 3 inclusions (BYD, Xinyi Solar, CG Services) to the HSI taking the number of constituents up to 58. Turnover is high at 7.77% and will...

Brian Freitas

Asian Governance: Diversity & Incentives Through the Cultural Lens

In this Smartkarma Original, we seek to study how diversity and incentives influence stock performance and profitability. We tallied diversity and...

Bondcritic

Last Week in Event SPACE: Softbank, Reliance, Metlifecare, Sony Financial, Towngas, United Spirits

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Flying horses aside, if you are bullish based on the discount to NAV and buyback, there is probably some buffer to...

David Blennerhassett

Towngas (1083 HK): A HKCG Privatisation?

A Reporter of Deals flagged the possibility of Hong Kong & China Gas (3 HK) taking gas distributor Towngas China (1083 HK), currently...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Kingsoft Not In the Cloud; CH Karnchang Tests New Lows

This week in StubWorld ... Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK)'s 43.6%-held Kingsoft Cloud (KC US) has gained 53% since its debut last Friday - but...

David Blennerhassett

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