IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>’s in-house logistics department in 2007. JD Logistics is seeking to raise up to $4 billion at a $40 billion valuation, according to press reports. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-initiation-the-flow-of-things" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48279" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things</a>, we opined that JD Logistics' fundamentals are attractive and remain well-placed to address consumers' demand for faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services. In this note, we take a first look at JD Logistics' valuation. Overall, based on our valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured IPO valuation can be justified.</p></div></div></div>

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)’s in-house logistics department in 2007. JD Logistics is seeking to raise up to $4 billion at a $40 billion valuation, according to press reports. In JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things, we opined that JD Logistics' fundamentals are attractive and remain well-placed to address consumers' demand for faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services. In this note, we take a first look at JD Logistics' valuation. Overall, based on our valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured IPO valuation can be justified.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>’s in-house logistics department in 2007. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a> is the controlling shareholder with a 79.12% stake. The other shareholders include Carlyle Group, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, Sequoia Capital and Hillhouse Capital. JD Logistics has filed for a Hong Kong IPO to raise as much as $4 billion, according to press reports. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. JD Logistics should also benefit from favourable Chinese government policy support for developing integrated supply chain logistics services. Overall, we believe that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and remain well-placed to address consumers' demand for faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services. </p></div>

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)’s in-house logistics department in 2007. JD.com (HK) (9618 HK) is the controlling shareholder with a 79.12% stake. The other shareholders include Carlyle Group, Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Sequoia Capital and Hillhouse Capital. JD Logistics has filed for a Hong Kong IPO to raise as much as $4 billion, according to press reports. JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. JD Logistics should also benefit from favourable Chinese government policy support for developing integrated supply chain logistics services. Overall, we believe that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and remain well-placed to address consumers' demand for faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services. 

JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a> has announced it intends to <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0216/2021021600739.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">spin-off JD Logistics</a> (JDL) by way of a separate listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The PN15 application proof is <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2021/103201/documents/sehk21021600660.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p>
<p>JD.com currently holds 79.12% of JDL. According to the China Insights Consultancy report, JDL is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain service market, in terms of total revenue in 2019.</p>
<p>Upon completion of the proposed spin-off,  JD.com will continue to indirectly hold more than 50% of the shares in JDL.</p>
<p>There remain a few missing pieces to the spin-off - there are 991 "Redacted" spaces in the PN15. But this will be a big deal. What it may not be, is a big deal to JD.com in the grand scheme of things.</p>
<p>As always, more below the fold. </p>

JD.com (HK) (9618 HK) has announced it intends to spin-off JD Logistics (JDL) by way of a separate listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The PN15 application proof is here.
JD.com currently holds 79.12% of JDL. According to the China Insights Consultancy report, JDL is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain service market, in terms of total revenue in 2019.
Upon completion of the proposed spin-off,  JD.com will continue to indirectly hold more than 50% of the shares in JDL.
There remain a few missing pieces to the spin-off - there are 991 "Redacted" spaces in the PN15. But this will be a big deal. What it may not be, is a big deal to JD.com in the grand scheme of things.
As always, more below the fold. 

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kerry Logistics, Sanken Electric, Vocus Comms, Toa Oil, ThaiBev, Sharp

<div>
<p>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3320:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Properties (683 HK)</a> ("KPL") and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> ("KLN") were both <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0205/2021020500081.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> ahead of trading on the 5 February, KLN has now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0210/2021021000043.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Partial Offer from  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> ("SFH").</p>
<p>SFH intends to acquire 931.21mn shares or 51.8% of shares outstanding, of Kerry Logistics Network. The Offer price is HK$18.80/share - a 19.83% discount to last close. KLN's shares gained 25% prior to the suspension.</p>
<p>There is a side transaction which is conditional on the Partial Offer becoming Unconditional. The transaction is to sell KLN's warehouses to its parent company. A substantial portion of the proceeds would be paid to shareholders on the Record Date as a special dividend totalling HK$7.28/share. Shareholders who tender will get HK$7.28 on all their shares and HK$18.80 for the shares taken up under the Partial Offer. </p>
<p>The timing of that Record Date and the Close of the Offer may mean that Shareholders will get the FY20 Final Dividend as well, and if it stretches on, perhaps even the FY21 Interim Dividend.</p>
<p>Pre-conditions are numerous, including approvals from SAMR, NDRC, MoC, CFIUS, FTC, a waiver from the relevant Thai authorities not to make a downstream Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a>,  amongst other conditions, a number of which are waivable. </p>
<p>The controlling shareholders of KLN, including KPL, plus shares held by executive directors, comprise 63.1% of shares out. These shareholders have given an irrevocable to tender 575.545mn shares or 32% of shares out. In addition, the document suggests Executive Directors and their affiliates will tender another 22.757mn shares. </p>
<p>The Partial Offer is conditional on 51.8% of shares out tendering, and the minimum acceptance of 336.706mn shares (18.7% of shares out) from shareholders <em>other than</em> the controlling shareholders and executive directors (at least that is what it says in bold, but other language in the document could lead one to believe that isn't an absolute). </p>
<p>Should the Partial Offer complete, SFH will outlay HK$17.55bn or US$2.25bn.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Lots more below the fold.  Plus <em><strong>Ye Olde Arb Grids </strong></em>(or at least one of them). </p>
</div>


After Kerry Properties (683 HK) ("KPL") and Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) ("KLN") were both suspended ahead of trading on the 5 February, KLN has now announced a pre-conditional Partial Offer from  S.F. Holding (002352 CH) ("SFH").
SFH intends to acquire 931.21mn shares or 51.8% of shares outstanding, of Kerry Logistics Network. The Offer price is HK$18.80/share - a 19.83% discount to last close. KLN's shares gained 25% prior to the suspension.
There is a side transaction which is conditional on the Partial Offer becoming Unconditional. The transaction is to sell KLN's warehouses to its parent company. A substantial portion of the proceeds would be paid to shareholders on the Record Date as a special dividend totalling HK$7.28/share. Shareholders who tender will get HK$7.28 on all their shares and HK$18.80 for the shares taken up under the Partial Offer. 
The timing of that Record Date and the Close of the Offer may mean that Shareholders will get the FY20 Final Dividend as well, and if it stretches on, perhaps even the FY21 Interim Dividend.
Pre-conditions are numerous, including approvals from SAMR, NDRC, MoC, CFIUS, FTC, a waiver from the relevant Thai authorities not to make a downstream Offer for Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB),  amongst other conditions, a number of which are waivable. 
The controlling shareholders of KLN, including KPL, plus shares held by executive directors, comprise 63.1% of shares out. These shareholders have given an irrevocable to tender 575.545mn shares or 32% of shares out. In addition, the document suggests Executive Directors and their affiliates will tender another 22.757mn shares. 
The Partial Offer is conditional on 51.8% of shares out tendering, and the minimum acceptance of 336.706mn shares (18.7% of shares out) from shareholders other than the controlling shareholders and executive directors (at least that is what it says in bold, but other language in the document could lead one to believe that isn't an absolute). 
Should the Partial Offer complete, SFH will outlay HK$17.55bn or US$2.25bn.


Lots more below the fold.  Plus Ye Olde Arb Grids (or at least one of them). 


Kerry Logistics (636 HK): SF Holdings' Pre-Conditional Partial Offer

Hong Kong

Kerry Logistics Network Limited provides logistics services in Asia and internationally. The Company offers integrated logistics services, as well as leases warehousing space in Hong Kong and provides international freight forwarding services.

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Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)

JD Logistics IPO: Valuation First Look

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Arun George

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JD.Com: Logistics Ops Spin-Off

Since JDH's listing, the stub has increased ~US$18.5bn., equivalent to ~12% of the market cap. The consensus target price is up around 8%. I would...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kerry Logistics, Sanken Electric, Vocus Comms, Toa Oil, ThaiBev, Sharp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Kerry Logistics (636 HK): SF Holdings' Pre-Conditional Partial Offer

Undisturbed is ~HK$16.92/sh, or $9.64/sh ex-SpecDiv. At HK$24.75, there are a lot of assumptions embedded. If public shareholders hold on b/c a...

David Blennerhassett

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