Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in October, I wrote in <a href="https://skr.ma/gLnnk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PICC's (1339 HK) Lifetime Low Implied Stub</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/people-s-insurance-co-group-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:362:1" rel="noopener">People's Insurance (1339 HK)</a> was trading at an all-time low implied stub. It's widened further since. </li>
<li>Over the past 12-months, excluding PICC's 68.98% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK)</a>, the market has assigned HK$42.6bn less for PICC's steady and profitable life/health insurance stub ops.</li>
<li>What gives? Falling interest rates is one. EV insurance in another. Yet this bifurcation is extreme.</li>
</ul>


Back in October, I wrote in PICC's (1339 HK) Lifetime Low Implied Stub that People's Insurance (1339 HK) was trading at an all-time low implied stub. It's widened further since. 
Over the past 12-months, excluding PICC's 68.98% stake in PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK), the market has assigned HK$42.6bn less for PICC's steady and profitable life/health insurance stub ops.
What gives? Falling interest rates is one. EV insurance in another. Yet this bifurcation is extreme.


PICC's (1339 HK)'s Implied Stub Plumbs New Lows As Interest Rate Cuts Bite

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis. Hs up vs As quite strongly. Liquid Hs even better.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND saw HK$1.2bn of net IN-flows in the 3-day week to 29 Dec. Total flows were HK$88bn.</li>
<li>Bullish end to year for SOUTHBOUND owners but they did not mark the close. They were, however, big buyers of high-div SOEs.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis. Hs up vs As quite strongly. Liquid Hs even better.
SOUTHBOUND saw HK$1.2bn of net IN-flows in the 3-day week to 29 Dec. Total flows were HK$88bn.
Bullish end to year for SOUTHBOUND owners but they did not mark the close. They were, however, big buyers of high-div SOEs.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 29Dec23); CNOOC & Telcos to the BUY Side, Tracker Fund Sold Bigly

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 22nd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We have highlighted Hong Kong Conncect flows for CNOOC and Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 22nd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We have highlighted Hong Kong Conncect flows for CNOOC and Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 22nd): CNOOC, Tencent

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies still. Hs up vs As only slightly. Liquid Hs were down vs As. </li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND saw HK$144bn of net INflows on the week to 22 Dec, which was HK$4bn of Tencent net sales and net buying of a bunch of ETFs.</li>
<li>Some banks and energy names were top net inflows as a percentage of ADV. This week was heavy for SOUTHBOUND, quiet for foreigners, next week may be quiet for both.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies still. Hs up vs As only slightly. Liquid Hs were down vs As. 
SOUTHBOUND saw HK$144bn of net INflows on the week to 22 Dec, which was HK$4bn of Tencent net sales and net buying of a bunch of ETFs.
Some banks and energy names were top net inflows as a percentage of ADV. This week was heavy for SOUTHBOUND, quiet for foreigners, next week may be quiet for both.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22Dec23); CNOOC/Energy To The Buy Side; Tencent Heavily Sold, Again.

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies continues for a fourth week. Hs rebound vs their As on the week - especially the liquid ones.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND saw HK$9.9bn of OUTflows on the week to 15 Dec, ALL of which was net sales of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>High-Div SOEs again saw action. This time with both CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) and China Telecom (728 HK) seeing net buying as a percentage of volume. </li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies continues for a fourth week. Hs rebound vs their As on the week - especially the liquid ones.
SOUTHBOUND saw HK$9.9bn of OUTflows on the week to 15 Dec, ALL of which was net sales of Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) and Tencent (700 HK). 
High-Div SOEs again saw action. This time with both CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) and China Telecom (728 HK) seeing net buying as a percentage of volume. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15Dec23); CNOOC/Telecom/Mobile All Now To The Buy Side, Tencent NOT

China

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited provides insurance services. The Company provides property loss insurances, liability insurances, credit insurances, accidental injury insurances, short term health insurances, guarantee insurances, and other insurance products. PICC Property and Casualty also operates investment businesses.

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PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK)

PICC's (1339 HK)'s Implied Stub Plumbs New Lows As Interest Rate Cuts Bite

When the NAV discount/implied stub momentum starts to reverse, go long that People's Insurance (1339 HK), short PICC Property & Casualty (2328 HK).

David Blennerhassett

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 29Dec23); CNOOC & Telcos to the BUY Side, Tracker Fund Sold Bigly

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows this week were light on a shortened 3-day week. High-div SOEs like Energy names and the large telcos were significantly...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 22nd): CNOOC, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight Hong kong weekly flows for CNOOC and Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22Dec23); CNOOC/Energy To The Buy Side; Tencent Heavily Sold, Again.

In HK Connect, SOUTHBOUND flows this week were slightly positive but the big story was a big sell of Tencent and buying of ETFs. On average, liquid...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15Dec23); CNOOC/Telecom/Mobile All Now To The Buy Side, Tencent NOT

SOUTHBOUND HK Connect Flows were lower than previous weeks in stock-picking but flows on ETFs were significant. NET flows were HK$9.9bn to the sell...

Travis Lundy

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