Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div id="annotable-executive_summary-1">The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. </div></div><div><div id="annotable-executive_summary-2"></div></div><div><p>For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on the Demand environment, Business performance, Consumer behaviour, Pricing action, Gross margins, commodity inflation &amp; Inventory, Advertising spends, Marketshare movements, New launches, Capex and PLI, Online and D2C, International business and exports and Future outlook.</p></div><div><p>Companies covered include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dabur-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1" rel="noopener">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-unilever-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13828:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a></p></div>

The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on the Demand environment, Business performance, Consumer behaviour, Pricing action, Gross margins, commodity inflation &amp; Inventory, Advertising spends, Marketshare movements, New launches, Capex and PLI, Online and D2C, International business and exports and Future outlook.Companies covered include Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) / Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) / Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) / Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Staples - BRIT, DABUR, HUVR, MRCO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Edelweiss Broking Limited

Edelweiss

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Business Overview</h2><p>ITC is one of the largest consumer companies in India with businesses spanning across cigarettes, hotels, paper and agri-commodities. Its branded foods division with products such as staples, confectionery, noodle, snacks and biscuits is doing well and gaining strong market share across many categories. ITC has been successful in foods and is expanding its personal product portfolio (soaps, shampoos, deo, talc). Though the cigarettes division is still the major source of revenue, other businesses - fmcg, agri, paper and hotel have grown over the years.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Business OverviewITC is one of the largest consumer companies in India with businesses spanning across cigarettes, hotels, paper and agri-commodities. Its branded foods division with products such as staples, confectionery, noodle, snacks and biscuits is doing well and gaining strong market share across many categories. ITC has been successful in foods and is expanding its personal product portfolio (soaps, shampoos, deo, talc). Though the cigarettes division is still the major source of revenue, other businesses - fmcg, agri, paper and hotel have grown over the years.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pick of the Week - ITC Limited: Sustained Market Leadership

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

<p>Maintain BUY with a revised TP of Rs 270 (Rs 260 earlier) based on our PE multiple of 18x on FY24EPS. However, undemanding valuations, +5% dividend yield, and visible recovery across key businesses make it an attractive bet.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Maintain BUY with a revised TP of Rs 270 (Rs 260 earlier) based on our PE multiple of 18x on FY24EPS. However, undemanding valuations, +5% dividend yield, and visible recovery across key businesses make it an attractive bet.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ITC: Healthy Performace Across Segment; Cigarettes Trudging Along

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

<p>HSIE Results Daily Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, ITC, Ambuja Cement, Mphasis, Persistent System, Indiamart, Federal Bank, Heidelbergcement India Reliance Industries: Our ADD rating on RIL with a price target of INR 2,280 /sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C businesses; (2) continued EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams; and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses. ICICI Bank ICICI Banks (ICICIBC) improving all-round performance over the past couple of years has been interrupted by the impact of the second wave in terms of asset quality during Q1FY22, a trend witnessed by all lenders.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

HSIE Results Daily Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, ITC, Ambuja Cement, Mphasis, Persistent System, Indiamart, Federal Bank, Heidelbergcement India Reliance Industries: Our ADD rating on RIL with a price target of INR 2,280 /sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C businesses; (2) continued EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams; and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses. ICICI Bank ICICI Banks (ICICIBC) improving all-round performance over the past couple of years has been interrupted by the impact of the second wave in terms of asset quality during Q1FY22, a trend witnessed by all lenders.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, ITC, Ambuja Cement, Mphasis, Persistent System,

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

<p>While a better than expected performance in the Agri business led to a beat on sales, EBITDA and PBT were in line with our estimates. Volume and sales growth in Cigarettes, sales growth in FMCG Others, as well as a full year dividend payout were broadly in line with our expectations. Unlike other discretionary categories, which have reported a strong rebound, two-year average growth in Cigarette volumes as well as EBIT declined by ~2% each in 4QFY21.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

While a better than expected performance in the Agri business led to a beat on sales, EBITDA and PBT were in line with our estimates. Volume and sales growth in Cigarettes, sales growth in FMCG Others, as well as a full year dividend payout were broadly in line with our expectations. Unlike other discretionary categories, which have reported a strong rebound, two-year average growth in Cigarette volumes as well as EBIT declined by ~2% each in 4QFY21.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In line result; outlook remains uncertain

India

ITC Limited, a member of BAT Group of UK, is a holding company, which has a diversified presence in Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards & Specialty Papers, Packaging, Agri Business, Packaged Foods & Confectionery, Branded Apparel, Greeting Cards and other FMCG products.

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ITC Ltd (ITC IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Staples - BRIT, DABUR, HUVR, MRCO

For the narrative, we will be covering commentary from Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) / Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) / Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) /...

Pranav Bhavsar

Pick of the Week - ITC Limited: Sustained Market Leadership

ITC is one of the largest consumer companies in India with businesses spanning across cigarettes, hotels, paper and agri-commodities.

Edelweiss

ITC: Healthy Performace Across Segment; Cigarettes Trudging Along

Maintain BUY with a revised TP of Rs 270 (Rs 260 earlier) based on our PE multiple of 18x on FY24EPS. However, undemanding valuations, +5% dividend...

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, ITC, Ambuja Cement, Mphasis, Persistent System,

HSIE Results Daily Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, ITC, Ambuja Cement, Mphasis, Persistent System, Indiamart, Federal Bank, Heidelbergcement India...

HDFC Securities

In line result; outlook remains uncertain

While a better than expected performance in the Agri business led to a beat on sales, EBITDA and PBT were in line with our estimates. Volume and...

Motilal Oswal

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