External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>ITC: ITC delivered a strong revenue and EBITDA growth and the beat was largely on account of a sharp jump in the non-cigarette business</li><li>Cigarette revenue growth was a marginal beat at 29% YoY (HSIE 27%, 7% three-year CAGR)</li><li>Cigarette volume growth was at ~26% (2% three-year CAGR)</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ITC: ITC delivered a strong revenue and EBITDA growth and the beat was largely on account of a sharp jump in the non-cigarette businessCigarette revenue growth was a marginal beat at 29% YoY (HSIE 27%, 7% three-year CAGR)Cigarette volume growth was at ~26% (2% three-year CAGR)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, NTPC, Ashok Leyland, The Ramco Cements

<ul><li>Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22)</li><li>Demand continued to be weak due to the elevated commodity pressure impacting affordability (particular in rural)</li><li>Thereby, the industry is witnessing a similar volume decline in Q1FY23 as seen in Q4FY22.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22)Demand continued to be weak due to the elevated commodity pressure impacting affordability (particular in rural)Thereby, the industry is witnessing a similar volume decline in Q1FY23 as seen in Q4FY22.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev - Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

<ul><li>Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs. 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22).</li><li>Gross margin YoY pressures continue in Q1FY23: Commodity pressure continued into Q1FY23, impacting the margin (even sequentially).</li><li>Three-year CAGR: Our coverage universe is expected to deliver 9/4% three- year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs in Q1.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs. 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22).Gross margin YoY pressures continue in Q1FY23: Commodity pressure continued into Q1FY23, impacting the margin (even sequentially).Three-year CAGR: Our coverage universe is expected to deliver 9/4% three- year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs in Q1.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev -  Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.</li>
<li>Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.</li>
<li>Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.
Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.
Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).


Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

<div><div><div><ul><li>D2C is here to stay; omni-channel the way forward: There are about 600 to 800 digital first companies in India.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Near-term challenges to test D2C brands’ business models: Overall, the consumption environment in India is under pressure, given high inflation.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Traditional companies adopting digital: While D2C companies start to become sizable, many traditional companies are adopting the digital way.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

D2C is here to stay; omni-channel the way forward: There are about 600 to 800 digital first companies in India.Near-term challenges to test D2C brands’ business models: Overall, the consumption environment in India is under pressure, given high inflation.Traditional companies adopting digital: While D2C companies start to become sizable, many traditional companies are adopting the digital way.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG -  D2C Is Here to Stay; Omni-Channel the Way Forward

India

ITC Limited, a member of BAT Group of UK, is a holding company, which has a diversified presence in Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards & Specialty Papers, Packaging, Agri Business, Packaged Foods & Confectionery, Branded Apparel, Greeting Cards and other FMCG products.

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ITC Ltd (ITC IN)

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, NTPC, Ashok Leyland, The Ramco Cements

ITC: ITC delivered a strong revenue and EBITDA growth and the beat was largely on account of a sharp jump in the non-cigarette business

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev - Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

Demand continued to be weak due to the elevated commodity pressure impacting affordability (particular in rural). Thereby, the industry is...

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev - Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

Gross margin YoY pressures continue in Q1FY23: Commodity pressure continued into Q1FY23, impacting the margin (even sequentially).

HDFC Securities

Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's $MCHI and $KWEB are near major base breakouts. We are watching is 22,700 on Hang Seng and $56.60 on MCHI; we are...

Vermilion Research

FMCG - D2C Is Here to Stay; Omni-Channel the Way Forward

In continuation to our D2C thematic–Changing Landscape Not Fully Factored In– we recently hosted multiple founders and experts in the D2C space.

HDFC Securities

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