Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>3M managed to deliver yet another all-around beat but its outlook for the rest of the year has been disappointing.</li><li>3M witnessed surging raw material and freight costs which are likely to lower its 2021 margins.</li><li>Its revenue outlook for the year also appears to be in the single digits.</li></ul>

3M managed to deliver yet another all-around beat but its outlook for the rest of the year has been disappointing.3M witnessed surging raw material and freight costs which are likely to lower its 2021 margins.Its revenue outlook for the year also appears to be in the single digits.

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>This year's narrative from US treasuries suggests a short-lived inflation/overheating scare in Q1, which coincided with Winter Storm Uri and the Texas power crisis, along with an initial phase of tapering talk from regional Fed presidents which subsequently faded; since the March peak, 10yr yields are down -45bps or a whopping -26%, representing the view that inflationary pressures have been entirely transitory</li>
<li>The picture from 5yr TIPS breakevens and the 5yr5yr has been more closely attuned to commodities:  In the past 6 months, 5yr TIPS breakevens and 5yr5yr have been 74% and 70% correlated with copper prices vs. the 10yr yield's 46%, though correlations with oil have been low; breakevens peaked with copper in May and bottomed in June-July</li>
<li>While 10yr yields continued to grind lower in July, our text mining is picking up a new surge in reports of supply constraints, which have been strongly correlated with breakevens and reflect corporate commentary in the current earnings season</li>
<li>The inflation narrative from treasuries appears to be asynchronous with the Q2 earnings season narrative from cyclical corporates, who are uniformly reporting worsening raw materials inflation expected in Q3 and lingering supply constraints</li>
<li>Nonetheless, our text mining acknowledges that talk of tightening financial conditions last spiked in March and has not resurfaced since, and expectations of a massive US infrastructure package have faded</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


This year's narrative from US treasuries suggests a short-lived inflation/overheating scare in Q1, which coincided with Winter Storm Uri and the Texas power crisis, along with an initial phase of tapering talk from regional Fed presidents which subsequently faded; since the March peak, 10yr yields are down -45bps or a whopping -26%, representing the view that inflationary pressures have been entirely transitory
The picture from 5yr TIPS breakevens and the 5yr5yr has been more closely attuned to commodities:  In the past 6 months, 5yr TIPS breakevens and 5yr5yr have been 74% and 70% correlated with copper prices vs. the 10yr yield's 46%, though correlations with oil have been low; breakevens peaked with copper in May and bottomed in June-July
While 10yr yields continued to grind lower in July, our text mining is picking up a new surge in reports of supply constraints, which have been strongly correlated with breakevens and reflect corporate commentary in the current earnings season
The inflation narrative from treasuries appears to be asynchronous with the Q2 earnings season narrative from cyclical corporates, who are uniformly reporting worsening raw materials inflation expected in Q3 and lingering supply constraints
Nonetheless, our text mining acknowledges that talk of tightening financial conditions last spiked in March and has not resurfaced since, and expectations of a massive US infrastructure package have faded
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Asynchronous Inflation Narratives

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<p>The Biden-Harris administration recently announced four "Day One" priorities, the first of which is their COVID-19 response plan. COVID-19 response is first, because it is a prerequisite to economic recovery, which is the second of their four "Day One" priorities.</p><p>Several investment themes are inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan, some more direct and obvious than others. This Insight overviews more significant themes and their most representative stocks, in three sections (the first two will be expanded on in separate upcoming reports):</p><ol>
<li>
<strong>COVID-19 Testing:</strong> Testing is the largest, most tangible, nearest-term investment opportunity created by Biden's plan. An estimated US$75-100 billion for testing could be windfall for certain stocks, but not all. Selectivity is key, and timing is critical (related to vaccine development).</li>
<li>
<strong>Vaccine Delivery:</strong> Biden's plan emphasises vaccine manufacturing and delivery, versus vaccine development (Trump had allocated <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">billions</a> to vaccine development companies). Some might go to big pharma companies for M&amp;D, but most should benefit other "cold chain" stocks.</li>
<li>
<strong>PPE Supply/Other:</strong> PPE manufacturing, of course, but that is largely old news. I will address it, but do so along with other more interesting collateral themes. For example, retail drugs chains, elder-care, medical technologies, and a few other related industries.</li>
</ol>

The Biden-Harris administration recently announced four "Day One" priorities, the first of which is their COVID-19 response plan. COVID-19 response is first, because it is a prerequisite to economic recovery, which is the second of their four "Day One" priorities.Several investment themes are inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan, some more direct and obvious than others. This Insight overviews more significant themes and their most representative stocks, in three sections (the first two will be expanded on in separate upcoming reports):

COVID-19 Testing: Testing is the largest, most tangible, nearest-term investment opportunity created by Biden's plan. An estimated US$75-100 billion for testing could be windfall for certain stocks, but not all. Selectivity is key, and timing is critical (related to vaccine development).

Vaccine Delivery: Biden's plan emphasises vaccine manufacturing and delivery, versus vaccine development (Trump had allocated billions to vaccine development companies). Some might go to big pharma companies for M&amp;D, but most should benefit other "cold chain" stocks.

PPE Supply/Other: PPE manufacturing, of course, but that is largely old news. I will address it, but do so along with other more interesting collateral themes. For example, retail drugs chains, elder-care, medical technologies, and a few other related industries.


Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanofilm-technologies-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29700:1" rel="noopener">Nanofilm Technologies International (NTI SP)</a> designs, manufactures, and assembles its proprietary coating equipment (and auxiliary equipment and spare parts), and develops and provides its surface solutions and advanced materials in-house. At the proposed IPO price of S$2.59 per share, Nanofilm will have a market cap of S$1.7 billion ($1.3 billion). Nanofilm will raise proceeds of S$470 million ($346 million) with primary/secondary spilt of 42.5%/57.5%. Thirteen cornerstone investors will subscriber for 104.3 million of the offer shares.  </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nanofilm-technologies-ipo-initiation-layer-by-layer" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we highlighted that Nanofilm is an attractive growth story underpinned by proprietary technology, growing addressable markets, high customer stickiness, attractive margin profile and strong cash conversion. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO valuation is attractive. </p></div></div></div>

Nanofilm Technologies International (NTI SP) designs, manufactures, and assembles its proprietary coating equipment (and auxiliary equipment and spare parts), and develops and provides its surface solutions and advanced materials in-house. At the proposed IPO price of S$2.59 per share, Nanofilm will have a market cap of S$1.7 billion ($1.3 billion). Nanofilm will raise proceeds of S$470 million ($346 million) with primary/secondary spilt of 42.5%/57.5%. Thirteen cornerstone investors will subscriber for 104.3 million of the offer shares.  In our initiation note, we highlighted that Nanofilm is an attractive growth story underpinned by proprietary technology, growing addressable markets, high customer stickiness, attractive margin profile and strong cash conversion. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO valuation is attractive. 

Nanofilm Technologies IPO: Valuation Insights

<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/u-s-elections-and-esg-impacts-on-people-planet-and-profit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42655" rel="noopener">U.S. Elections and ESG: Impacts on People, Planet… and Profit</a>, I discussed major universally-relevant implications of the 2020 U.S. elections from an ESG and Triple Bottom Line perspective, and using the three TBL pillars for structure: 1) Environmental, 2) Social and Governance, and 3) Economic. That report was a deep dive, but nonetheless largely stayed on the macro level.</p>
<p>This Insight is one of several regionally-focused reports analysing the U.S. elections – candidates, their policy positions, and implications of evolving election outcome scenarios – on a more micro plane. Specifically, implications for regional markets, sectors, and stocks based on the policies of the Democrat and Republican tickets in conjunction with Congressional election result scenarios.</p>
<p>Consider this the inaugural report for North America-focused coverage of the 2020 elections. It will be updated, and more importantly built upon, over the next two months (all elections are held on 3 November) as significant events unfold. This initial report lays the basic foundation for that future coverage. In particular, it addresses the following topics (which also approximate an outline):</p>
<ul>
<li>Overview of major policy proposals or plans for U.S. and Canadian markets, sectors, and stocks</li>
<li>U.S. and Canadian sectors/stocks that benefit/lose from Biden climate and infrastructure plans</li>
<li>U.S. and Canadian sectors/stocks that benefit/lose from Biden corporate tax policies and hikes</li>
<li>High-level summary of the most consequential points addressed in the aforementioned Insight</li>
</ul>

In U.S. Elections and ESG: Impacts on People, Planet… and Profit, I discussed major universally-relevant implications of the 2020 U.S. elections from an ESG and Triple Bottom Line perspective, and using the three TBL pillars for structure: 1) Environmental, 2) Social and Governance, and 3) Economic. That report was a deep dive, but nonetheless largely stayed on the macro level.
This Insight is one of several regionally-focused reports analysing the U.S. elections – candidates, their policy positions, and implications of evolving election outcome scenarios – on a more micro plane. Specifically, implications for regional markets, sectors, and stocks based on the policies of the Democrat and Republican tickets in conjunction with Congressional election result scenarios.
Consider this the inaugural report for North America-focused coverage of the 2020 elections. It will be updated, and more importantly built upon, over the next two months (all elections are held on 3 November) as significant events unfold. This initial report lays the basic foundation for that future coverage. In particular, it addresses the following topics (which also approximate an outline):

Overview of major policy proposals or plans for U.S. and Canadian markets, sectors, and stocks
U.S. and Canadian sectors/stocks that benefit/lose from Biden climate and infrastructure plans
U.S. and Canadian sectors/stocks that benefit/lose from Biden corporate tax policies and hikes
High-level summary of the most consequential points addressed in the aforementioned Insight


U.S. Elections and ESG: Impacts on People, Planet… and Profit (North America)

United States

Carlisle Companies Incorporated manufactures and distributes construction materials, transportation products, and general industry products.  The Company manufactures a variety of products for the roofing, real estate, construction, trucking, food-service, aircraft manufacturing, lawn and garden, and other industries.

Roper Technologies, Inc. manufactures and distributes industrial equipment. The Company offers industrial controls, fluid handling, pumps, medical and scientific devices, analytical instrumentation products, radio frequency identification (RFID) communication technology, and software solutions.

Icahn Enterprises L.P., a master limited partnership, is a diversified holding company engaged in nine primary business segments: Automotive, Investment, Energy, Gaming, Railcar, Food Packaging, Metals, Real Estate and Home Fashion.

Quanta Services, Inc. provides specialized contracting services to electric utilities, telecommunication and cable television operators, and governmental entities.  The Company also installs transportation control and lighting systems and provides specialty electric power and communication services for industrial and commercial customers.  Quanta operates projects throughout North America.

Northrop Grumman Corporation is a global security company. The Company provides systems, products, and solutions in aerospace, electronics, information systems and technical services to government and commercial customers worldwide.

Stanley Black & Decker Inc. is a diversified global provider of hand tools, power tools and related accessories, mechanical access and electronic security solutions, healthcare solutions, engineered fastening systems, and more.

Graco Inc. supplies technology for the management of fluids in both industrial and commercial applications.  The Company designs, manufactures, and markets systems to move, measure, control, dispense, and apply fluid materials.  Graco's products are used for applying paints and coatings, high-pressure cleaning of equipment, and lubricating and maintaining vehicles and other equipment.

TransDigm Group, Inc., through subsidiaries, manufactures aircraft components. The Company produces ignition systems and components, gear pumps, mechanical/electromechanical actuators and controls, NiCad batteries/chargers, power conditioning devices, hold-open rods and locking devices, engineered connectors and latches, cockpit security devices, and AC/DC electric motors.

Nordson Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets systems that apply adhesives, sealants, and coatings to consumer and industrial products during manufacturing operations.  The Company's products include customized electronic controls for the precise application and curing of materials to meet customers' requirements.  Nordson operates around the world.

United Rentals, Inc., through its subsidiary, is an equipment rental company operating a network of locations in the United States and Canada.  The Company serves the construction industry, industrial and commercial concerns, homeowners, and other individuals.

CK Hutchison Holdings Limited holds all of the non-property businesses of the Cheung Kong Group and the Hutchison Group, including ports and related services, telecommunications, retail, infrastructure, energy, and movable assets leasing operations.

Samsung C&T Corporation conducts diversified business support services and resort operation activities. The Company offers a range of services in areas including clothing retail, construction, energy, real estate, food service, and resort accommodations. Samsung C&T also operates a resort with amusement rides, a zoo, water park, golf clubs, and restaurants.

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

Siemens Ltd. has its operations in various areas: in the transportation sector it delivers high speed trains, in the lighting sector it manufactures small light bulbs. In the healthcare sector Siemens executes complete solutions for hospitals, for the industry sector it builds airports as well as produces contracts & for the communication segment it provides public network to mobiles.

SM Investments Corporation is an investment holding company. The Company operates retail business and develops shopping mall and other real estate property.  The Company also provides tourism services.

CITIC Limited operates in a range of business activities including financial services, resources and energy, manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure, engineering contracting and other businesses in China and overseas.

Koninklijke Philips NV is a health technology company focused on improving people's health across the health continuum from healthy living and prevention, to diagnosis, treatment, and home care. The Company offers products and services in diagnostic imaging, image-guided therapy, patient monitoring and health informatics, as well as in consumer health and home care.

Rheinmetall AG is an automotive, electronics, defense, and engineering group. The Company produces automotive pumps and components to supply air, reduce emissions, and supply fuel, pistons for gasoline and diesel vehicle and stationary engines, bearings for engines and other applications and aluminum engine blocks, and offers aftermarket service to engine repair shops.

Lifco AB operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides dental products, machinery and tools, sawmill equipment, contract manufacturing, vehicle interiors, and environmental technology. Lifco offers its products through a network of subsidiaries and partnerships worldwide.

Grupo Carso SAB de CV is a holding company with subsidiaries in the construction ,retail and industrial materials industries. The Company's products and services include: oil platform construction; shoping centers, industrial facilities and corporate buildings construction; highway construction; dam and aqueduct construction; steel tubes; and housing.

3M Co. conducts operations in electronics, telecommunications, industrial, consumer and office, health care, safety, and other markets.  The Company's businesses share technologies, manufacturing operations, brands, marketing channels, and other resources.  3M serves customers in countries located around the world.

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3M Co (MMM US)

3M Company - Investment Thesis

3M managed to deliver yet another all-around beat but its outlook for the rest of the year has been disappointing. 3M witnessed surging raw...

Baptista Research

TMI Snapshot: Asynchronous Inflation Narratives

While the bond market continues to dismiss inflationary pressures, our text mining picked up a recent spike in mentions of supply constraints as...

Elan Gore

Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes

Biden's recently-announced COVID-19 response plan suggests a number of investment themes. This Insight overviews the more significant of those...

Kyle Rudden

Nanofilm Technologies IPO: Valuation Insights

Nanofilm will raise proceeds of S$470 million ($346 million) with primary/secondary spilt of 42.5%/57.5%. Our valuation analysis suggests that the...

Arun George

U.S. Elections and ESG: Impacts on People, Planet… and Profit (North America)

In U.S. Elections and ESG: Impacts on People, Planet… and Profit, I discussed major universally-relevant implications of the 2020 U.S. elections...

Kyle Rudden

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