Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luckin-coffee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28046:1" rel="noopener">Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US)</a> reported another quarter of strong growth and is now China’s leading coffee chain by a wide margin with operating margins outperforming even premium rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/starbucks-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7641:1" rel="noopener">Starbucks Corp(SBUX US)</a> .</li>
<li>Luckin’s disruptive model—centered on affordability, convenience, and accessibility—and the competition that followed has fueled a 2.5X rise in China’s per capita coffee consumption over the past five years.</li>
<li>​Luckin Coffee's strong growth, high operating margins, dominant market share contrasts with Starbucks, which is now adapting to changing customer preference for convenience and digital experiences.</li>
</ul>



Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) reported another quarter of strong growth and is now China’s leading coffee chain by a wide margin with operating margins outperforming even premium rival Starbucks Corp(SBUX US) .
Luckin’s disruptive model—centered on affordability, convenience, and accessibility—and the competition that followed has fueled a 2.5X rise in China’s per capita coffee consumption over the past five years.
​Luckin Coffee's strong growth, high operating margins, dominant market share contrasts with Starbucks, which is now adapting to changing customer preference for convenience and digital experiences.


Luckin Coffee: Acing It in China's Racing Coffee Market

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Luckin reported C3Q24 revenue 9.8%/6.3% higher than our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 26%/28% higher than our estimate/consensus. </li>
<li>In the short term, Luckin managed to raise price without trigger consumer departure, and may do so for a few more quarters. </li>
<li>We put the TP and the rating under review pending further assessment of US market entry.</li>
</ul>


Luckin reported C3Q24 revenue 9.8%/6.3% higher than our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 26%/28% higher than our estimate/consensus. 
In the short term, Luckin managed to raise price without trigger consumer departure, and may do so for a few more quarters. 
We put the TP and the rating under review pending further assessment of US market entry.


[Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY US, UR) Earnings Review]: Operational Turnaround, Now All Eyes on Growth

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK:In the 46th week of 2024, market demand is booming and new brands gain market share.(///////////////)</li>
<li>XPEV US: Xpeng's vehicle revenue and gross profit margin exceeded expectations in the third quarter, but service revenue was lower than expected, resulting in lower-than-expected profits.(/)</li>
<li>LKNCY US: Luckin Signs Memorandum for Brazilian Coffee Bean Purchases.(+)</li>
</ul>


1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK:In the 46th week of 2024, market demand is booming and new brands gain market share.(///////////////)
XPEV US: Xpeng's vehicle revenue and gross profit margin exceeded expectations in the third quarter, but service revenue was lower than expected, resulting in lower-than-expected profits.(/)
LKNCY US: Luckin Signs Memorandum for Brazilian Coffee Bean Purchases.(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK/LKNCY US

<ul>
<li>Luckin’s SSSG declined 20.9%YoY in the peak season, indicating diseconomies of scale for Luckin and a deteriorated competitive environment. We do not expect a quick turnaround in the near term.</li>
<li>We think Luckin has limited capability to further raise its prices in 3Q24, and expect its NPM to be 11.9%/7.1% in 3Q24/4Q24 as the new norm.</li>
<li>We keep SELL rating and lower TP to US$16.5/ADS. The stock trading at 20x/16x PE in 2024/2025, and we expect the NI to increase 15%CAGR in the next 2 years.</li>
</ul>


Luckin’s SSSG declined 20.9%YoY in the peak season, indicating diseconomies of scale for Luckin and a deteriorated competitive environment. We do not expect a quick turnaround in the near term.
We think Luckin has limited capability to further raise its prices in 3Q24, and expect its NPM to be 11.9%/7.1% in 3Q24/4Q24 as the new norm.
We keep SELL rating and lower TP to US$16.5/ADS. The stock trading at 20x/16x PE in 2024/2025, and we expect the NI to increase 15%CAGR in the next 2 years.


[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, SELL, TP US$16.5) TP Change]: Milkteaization Diminishes Differentiation

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luckin-coffee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28046:1" rel="noopener">Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US)</a> concluded FY23 with a 203.3% surge in non-GAAP net profit to Rmb3.2bn, benefiting from higher store count and monthly transacting customers.</li>
<li>Luckin plans to lift store count by at least 23%, with total to reach over 20,000 in FY24. Product innovation, promotional discount reduction, and better store efficiency are profit drivers. </li>
<li>Net cash reached Rmb3.8bn, or 7% of market cap. With a consensus EPS forecast of 28% CAGR in the next two years, its 15.1x and 11.7x PERs are not stretched.</li>
</ul>



Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) concluded FY23 with a 203.3% surge in non-GAAP net profit to Rmb3.2bn, benefiting from higher store count and monthly transacting customers.
Luckin plans to lift store count by at least 23%, with total to reach over 20,000 in FY24. Product innovation, promotional discount reduction, and better store efficiency are profit drivers. 
Net cash reached Rmb3.8bn, or 7% of market cap. With a consensus EPS forecast of 28% CAGR in the next two years, its 15.1x and 11.7x PERs are not stretched.


Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US): Feeling Lucky in a Challenging Market

China

Luckin Coffee Inc. provides non-alcoholic beverages. The Company offers various types of coffee. Luckin Coffee serves customers in China.

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Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US)

Luckin Coffee: Acing It in China's Racing Coffee Market

Luckin Coffee's strong growth, high operating margins, dominant market share contrasts with Starbucks, which is now adapting to changing customer...

Devi Subhakesan

[Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY US, UR) Earnings Review]: Operational Turnaround, Now All Eyes on Growth

Luckin exceeds revenue and profit estimates in Q3, successfully raises prices without losing customers, future plans for US market entry under...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK/LKNCY US

Market demand is booming in 46th week of 2024, new brands gaining share; XPEV's Q3 revenue exceeds expectations but service revenue disappoints;...

Blue Lotus Research Institute