Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We think FUTU is stepping into a stagnant phase in 2024. Japan is not a game changer. </li>
<li>Client asset inflow from overseas is not meaningful, and growth from mainland is frozen by regulation.</li>
<li>We downgrade the stock into SELL rating and cut TP to US$46/ADS, mainly due to slow progress in overseas expansion and difficulty in monetization. </li>
</ul>


We think FUTU is stepping into a stagnant phase in 2024. Japan is not a game changer. 
Client asset inflow from overseas is not meaningful, and growth from mainland is frozen by regulation.
We downgrade the stock into SELL rating and cut TP to US$46/ADS, mainly due to slow progress in overseas expansion and difficulty in monetization. 


[Futu Holdings(FUTU US, SELL, TP US$46)Rating Change]: Run Out of Growth Momentum, Downgrade to SELL

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China considers launching a stock stabilization fund which could release RmB800B in liquidity support for the market.  Securities firms and insurance companies will be the major beneficiaries.</li>
<li>The mega merger between  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> could be the precursor to further industry consolidation.</li>
<li>Hong Kong trading volumes and IPO's set to surge as Beijing lifts sentiment.</li>
</ul>


China considers launching a stock stabilization fund which could release RmB800B in liquidity support for the market.  Securities firms and insurance companies will be the major beneficiaries.
The mega merger between  Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) and Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) could be the precursor to further industry consolidation.
Hong Kong trading volumes and IPO's set to surge as Beijing lifts sentiment.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Although the tech sector in Hong Kong has surged over the last couple of weeks there appears to be minimal short covering in US-listed China tech names.</li>
<li>The performance of the "Magnificent 5" China tech names has led the rally as we outlined in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hong-kong-the-glass-is-half-full-time-to-buy-beta" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:134396" rel="noopener">Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta</a> .</li>
<li>The combination of of large outstanding short positions and a significant underweight of HK/China in international funds will lead to further upside in the tech sector.</li>
</ul>


Although the tech sector in Hong Kong has surged over the last couple of weeks there appears to be minimal short covering in US-listed China tech names.
The performance of the "Magnificent 5" China tech names has led the rally as we outlined in Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta .
The combination of of large outstanding short positions and a significant underweight of HK/China in international funds will lead to further upside in the tech sector.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

China Resources Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front,  it hasn't been this busy for a while, with deals live in Japan and Korea, and possible launches in Hong Kong and India as well.</li>
<li>On the placements front, there were a few China ADR blocks and other placements across the region.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front,  it hasn't been this busy for a while, with deals live in Japan and Korea, and possible launches in Hong Kong and India as well.
On the placements front, there were a few China ADR blocks and other placements across the region.


ECM Weekly (30th Sep 2024) - Tokyo Metro, Rigaku, China Resources, K Bank, Mr DIY, Smartworks, IREDA

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>China momentum continues with KWEB breaking out above WEEKLY double-bottom base</li>
<li>Stocks REPORTING this week that look technically sound include PDD BZ and EH</li>
<li>In-Depth look at individual leaders in Tencent Holdings, Futu Holdings, and Sony Group</li>
</ul>


China momentum continues with KWEB breaking out above WEEKLY double-bottom base
Stocks REPORTING this week that look technically sound include PDD BZ and EH
In-Depth look at individual leaders in Tencent Holdings, Futu Holdings, and Sony Group


United States

Futu Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers an online brokerage platform that enables individual investors to trade in listed stocks. Futu Holdings serves customers in the United States, China, and Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
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Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)

[Futu Holdings(FUTU US, SELL, TP US$46)Rating Change]: Run Out of Growth Momentum, Downgrade to SELL

FUTU faces stagnation in 2024 as Japan offers limited growth potential and regulatory constraints hinder expansion. Stock downgraded to SELL /ADS...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong/China Brokers: TAKE THE OFFER!

The HK/China brokers: 6030, 3908, 6886, 6806, 6881, 1776, 6178, 1456, 165, and 6099 have gained between 90% and 100% since the report was published...

David Mudd

HK/China: THE BIG SHORT (SQUEEZE)

Even though HK/China tech names have surged, short positions have not covered. The large underweight position in HK/China by international funds...

David Mudd

ECM Weekly (30th Sep 2024) - Tokyo Metro, Rigaku, China Resources, K Bank, Mr DIY, Smartworks, IREDA

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Red Dragon Awakening

Focusing on Chinese names that have already been leading, and these are the ones most likely to continue to do so going forward. Very specific...

Douglas Busch

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Futu Holdings(FUTU US, SELL, TP US$46)Rating Change]: Run Out of Growth Momentum, Downgrade to SELL

​FUTU faces stagnation in 2024 as Japan offers limited growth potential and regulatory constraints hinder expansion. Stock downgraded to SELL /ADS...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong/China Brokers: TAKE THE OFFER!

The HK/China brokers: 6030, 3908, 6886, 6806, 6881, 1776, 6178, 1456, 165, and 6099 have gained between 90% and 100% since the report was published...

David Mudd

HK/China: THE BIG SHORT (SQUEEZE)

Even though HK/China tech names have surged, short positions have not covered. The large underweight position in HK/China by international funds...

David Mudd

ECM Weekly (30th Sep 2024) - Tokyo Metro, Rigaku, China Resources, K Bank, Mr DIY, Smartworks, IREDA

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Red Dragon Awakening

Focusing on Chinese names that have already been leading, and these are the ones most likely to continue to do so going forward. Very specific...

Douglas Busch

FUTU faces stagnation in 2024 as Japan offers limited growth potential and regulatory constraints hinder expansion. Stock downgraded to SELL /ADS...