IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/missfresh-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33468:1" rel="noopener">Missfresh (MF US)</a> is an online grocery platform in China. Missfresh notes that it ranked first in China’s on-demand DMW (distributed mini-warehouse) retail industry in 2018 and 2019, respectively, and ranked second in 2020 as measured by GMV (gross merchandise value), according to iResearch.Missfresh is backed by Shunwei China Internet Fund IV (12.4% of outstanding shares, 3.8% of voting power) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> (8.1% of outstanding shares, 2.5% of voting power). Missfresh has filed for a Nasdaq IPO to raise $500 million, according to press reports. We also note that peer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dingdong-maicai" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33461:1" rel="noopener">Dingdong Maicai (DDL US)</a>, has also filed for an NYSE IPO to raise $500 million, according to press reports. Missfresh was a beneficiary of the COVID-19 pandemic resulting in an exceptional 1Q20. However, the performance since 1Q20 has been lacklustre as Missfresh is facing the twin challenges of tough competition and a partial reversal of consumer behaviour. With the easing of lockdown restrictions and waning of the COVID-19 pandemic, some consumer behaviour has shifted back to shopping offline for groceries. <div class="content-highlight">While the recent fundraisings to support <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> (Duo Duo Maicai) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>’s online grocery delivery platforms underscores the opportunity, it also suggests that Missfresh will find it harder to compete and generate shareholder returns. Overall, we think that Missfresh is a challenged business and we would pass on the IPO.</div>

Missfresh (MF US) is an online grocery platform in China. Missfresh notes that it ranked first in China’s on-demand DMW (distributed mini-warehouse) retail industry in 2018 and 2019, respectively, and ranked second in 2020 as measured by GMV (gross merchandise value), according to iResearch.Missfresh is backed by Shunwei China Internet Fund IV (12.4% of outstanding shares, 3.8% of voting power) and Tencent (700 HK) (8.1% of outstanding shares, 2.5% of voting power). Missfresh has filed for a Nasdaq IPO to raise $500 million, according to press reports. We also note that peer, Dingdong Maicai (DDL US), has also filed for an NYSE IPO to raise $500 million, according to press reports. Missfresh was a beneficiary of the COVID-19 pandemic resulting in an exceptional 1Q20. However, the performance since 1Q20 has been lacklustre as Missfresh is facing the twin challenges of tough competition and a partial reversal of consumer behaviour. With the easing of lockdown restrictions and waning of the COVID-19 pandemic, some consumer behaviour has shifted back to shopping offline for groceries. While the recent fundraisings to support Pinduoduo (PDD US) (Duo Duo Maicai) and Meituan (3690 HK)’s online grocery delivery platforms underscores the opportunity, it also suggests that Missfresh will find it harder to compete and generate shareholder returns. Overall, we think that Missfresh is a challenged business and we would pass on the IPO.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloud-village-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33412:1" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (CLV HK)</a> (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company has also obtained investments from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>, along with other investors.As of Dec 20, it had 181m online music MAUs, 16m online music services monthly paying users, 327,000 social entertainment services monthly paying users. It had over 60m music tracks, of which more than 1m were created by registered independent artists. Its daily active users on average spent 76mins daily listening to music. CVI’s revenue has grown 4.3x over FY18-20, to RMB4.9bn. There have been no signs of slowdown as its revenue increased by 102% in FY19 and was up another 111% in FY20. Both online music services and social entertainment services revenue have shown strong growth. Online music services revenue grew by 73% in 2019 and another 47.6% in 2020. Social entertainment services revenue was the largest driver of growth, as it grew by 344% in 2019 and was up another 320% in 2020.However, it remains a distant second player in the market and has yet to make a profit.

Cloud Village (CLV HK) (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company has also obtained investments from Baidu (BIDU US) and Alibaba Group (BABA US), along with other investors.As of Dec 20, it had 181m online music MAUs, 16m online music services monthly paying users, 327,000 social entertainment services monthly paying users. It had over 60m music tracks, of which more than 1m were created by registered independent artists. Its daily active users on average spent 76mins daily listening to music. CVI’s revenue has grown 4.3x over FY18-20, to RMB4.9bn. There have been no signs of slowdown as its revenue increased by 102% in FY19 and was up another 111% in FY20. Both online music services and social entertainment services revenue have shown strong growth. Online music services revenue grew by 73% in 2019 and another 47.6% in 2020. Social entertainment services revenue was the largest driver of growth, as it grew by 344% in 2019 and was up another 320% in 2020.However, it remains a distant second player in the market and has yet to make a profit.

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO - Was in the Slow Stream, Playing Catch-Up

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

In this insight, we discuss in detail our initial thoughts on the valuation range of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a> IPO. Didi was last valued at $65 billion in its latest fundingraising round in August 2020. The media have mentioned that the valuations of Didi Chuxing could be about <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2021/06/10/softbank-uber-tencent-set-to-reap-rewards-from-didi-ipo/?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMj5A2PgL-33D8uIOLSUl0PGX8TWig2FrftAae5MrH0qB7Jm7ZwviMBR8Ca6R2uOSje6Ep9uNZNsMwEy3FYscaBJf7P9FQXuaOZ5NXJHihyhXCPjXlAjwL5gNJKBVC-zQSM2Z1oGfH5A7b8-JakCHOHtZDR9n3PhDYPB7Lv7s9og" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$70 billion to $100 billion. </a><div class="content-highlight">
Our initial valuation analysis of Didi Chuxing suggests a base case market cap valuation of $138 billion. Our valuation ranges from $77 billion (low case) to $215 billion (high case). The IPO price range is not yet available from the bankers but we plan to narrow our valuation once the IPO price range becomes public. 
Although we do not know how the bankers will price the deal, if the IPO is priced at about $100 billion, our base case valuation of $138 billion would be 38% higher and given the solid upside, we would be positive on the IPO. 
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In this insight, we discuss in detail our initial thoughts on the valuation range of DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US) IPO. Didi was last valued at $65 billion in its latest fundingraising round in August 2020. The media have mentioned that the valuations of Didi Chuxing could be about $70 billion to $100 billion. 
Our initial valuation analysis of Didi Chuxing suggests a base case market cap valuation of $138 billion. Our valuation ranges from $77 billion (low case) to $215 billion (high case). The IPO price range is not yet available from the bankers but we plan to narrow our valuation once the IPO price range becomes public. 
Although we do not know how the bankers will price the deal, if the IPO is priced at about $100 billion, our base case valuation of $138 billion would be 38% higher and given the solid upside, we would be positive on the IPO. 


Initial Thoughts on the Didi Chuxing Valuation

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aihuishou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33426:1" rel="noopener">Aihuishou (RERE US)</a> , the pre-owned consumer electronics transaction and services platform in China has announced the indicative price range for its IPO at US$13-15 per ADS. The company plans to issue 16.23m ADSs (18.7m shares including the over-allotment) and each ordinary share represents 1.5 ADSs of the company. At the midpoint of the IPO price range of US$14 per share, Aihuishou will raise net proceeds of US$205.7m at a market capitalisation of US$3.1bn and a post-money enterprise value of US$2.85bn.In our previous insight, we examined Aihuishou’s business model and its financials and concluded that the company’s revenues will continue to see strong growth and at the same time, we expect the company’s profitability to improve going forward.

Aihuishou (RERE US) , the pre-owned consumer electronics transaction and services platform in China has announced the indicative price range for its IPO at US$13-15 per ADS. The company plans to issue 16.23m ADSs (18.7m shares including the over-allotment) and each ordinary share represents 1.5 ADSs of the company. At the midpoint of the IPO price range of US$14 per share, Aihuishou will raise net proceeds of US$205.7m at a market capitalisation of US$3.1bn and a post-money enterprise value of US$2.85bn.In our previous insight, we examined Aihuishou’s business model and its financials and concluded that the company’s revenues will continue to see strong growth and at the same time, we expect the company’s profitability to improve going forward.

AiHuiShou IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

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Our valuation analysis suggests an implied market cap of $4.1 billion, representing an implied price of $15.8 per share for Aihuishou. This would represent an upside of 5% from the high end of the IPO price of $15 per share. Given the lack of upside, we would avoid this IPO deal. We based our valution based on 2.0x EV/S multiple (2022E), which is based on the average EV/S multiple of its peers in 2022. If the IPO is priced at the low end of the IPO price range, then it could be more attractive, but we are not too convinced of the investment merits of this company.
Among the many risks, we are especially concerned about the extreme price competition for electronic goods (including smartphones) and we do not believe that if the company could generate significant profits in this sector if it focuses just on the consumer electronics sector. In addition, we are not so sure about the company's capability in expanding profitably into other non-consumer electronics related areas going forward. 
</div>Established in 2011 as an online platform buying and selling second-hand phones and other consumer electronics, Aihuishou focuses on the electronics.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aihuishou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33426:1" rel="noopener">Aihuishou (RERE US)</a> plans to raise $227 million in the upcoming IPO by offering 16.2 million ADS at a price range of $13 to $15 per share. Insiders plan to buy $100 million worth of ADS shares in this IPO. Aihuishou would have a market cap of $3.6 billion at the mid-point of the IPO price range.


Our valuation analysis suggests an implied market cap of $4.1 billion, representing an implied price of $15.8 per share for Aihuishou. This would represent an upside of 5% from the high end of the IPO price of $15 per share. Given the lack of upside, we would avoid this IPO deal. We based our valution based on 2.0x EV/S multiple (2022E), which is based on the average EV/S multiple of its peers in 2022. If the IPO is priced at the low end of the IPO price range, then it could be more attractive, but we are not too convinced of the investment merits of this company.
Among the many risks, we are especially concerned about the extreme price competition for electronic goods (including smartphones) and we do not believe that if the company could generate significant profits in this sector if it focuses just on the consumer electronics sector. In addition, we are not so sure about the company's capability in expanding profitably into other non-consumer electronics related areas going forward. 
Established in 2011 as an online platform buying and selling second-hand phones and other consumer electronics, Aihuishou focuses on the electronics.Aihuishou (RERE US) plans to raise $227 million in the upcoming IPO by offering 16.2 million ADS at a price range of $13 to $15 per share. Insiders plan to buy $100 million worth of ADS shares in this IPO. Aihuishou would have a market cap of $3.6 billion at the mid-point of the IPO price range. 

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Missfresh IPO Initiation: No so Fresh

Missfresh has filed for a Nasdaq IPO to raise $500 million, according to press reports. Overall, we think that Missfresh is a challenged business...

Arun George

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO - Was in the Slow Stream, Playing Catch-Up

Cloud Village (CLV HK), also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company has also obtained investments from...

Sumeet Singh

Initial Thoughts on the Didi Chuxing Valuation

Our initial valuation analysis of Didi Chuxing suggests a base case market cap valuation of $138 billion. Our valuation ranges from $77 billion...

Douglas Kim

AiHuiShou IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

We believe there will be limited upside to the company’s indicative IPO price range and would be inclined to buy only if the company sets the final...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Aihuishou IPO Valuation Analysis

Our valuation analysis suggests an implied price of $15.8 per share for Aihuishou. This would represent an upside of 5% from the high end of the...

Douglas Kim

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