Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> is expected to release fourth quarter and full-year 2021 results on 23rd March 2022.</li>
<li>We expect fourth quarter 2021 earnings to be soft driven by slowdown in online advertising and online games revenues.</li>
<li>In our 3Q2021 earnings note, we highlighted that weakness in Tencent’s earnings have begun to show up and we expect further declines in 4Q2021E.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) is expected to release fourth quarter and full-year 2021 results on 23rd March 2022.
We expect fourth quarter 2021 earnings to be soft driven by slowdown in online advertising and online games revenues.
In our 3Q2021 earnings note, we highlighted that weakness in Tencent’s earnings have begun to show up and we expect further declines in 4Q2021E.


Tencent: 4Q2021 Earnings to Soften with Decelerating Games Growth and Weak Ad Revenue

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>With churn rates as high as 50% and wholesale customers declining by 27.7% in 9M21, we are not particularly interested in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huitongda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33789:1" rel="noopener">Huitongda (9878 HK)</a> over long term.</li>
<li>The valuation looks cheap compared to peers on the surface, but when compared after considering Huitongda’s 1P exposure its at a significant premium to peers.</li>
<li>Given that the market takes time to pick up similar mispricing situations, we think its advisable to wait and see where Huitongda opens, before arranging a short position.</li>
</ul>


With churn rates as high as 50% and wholesale customers declining by 27.7% in 9M21, we are not particularly interested in Huitongda (9878 HK) over long term.
The valuation looks cheap compared to peers on the surface, but when compared after considering Huitongda’s 1P exposure its at a significant premium to peers.
Given that the market takes time to pick up similar mispricing situations, we think its advisable to wait and see where Huitongda opens, before arranging a short position.


APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huitongda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33789:1" rel="noopener">Huitongda (9878 HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$318m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Huitongda (HTD) is a leading commerce and service platform serving businesses in the lower-tier retail markets of China.</li>
<li>In this note, we will look at deal dynamics, assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Huitongda (9878 HK) is looking to raise up to US$318m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Huitongda (HTD) is a leading commerce and service platform serving businesses in the lower-tier retail markets of China.
In this note, we will look at deal dynamics, assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.


Huitongda (汇通达) IPO - Not the Right Price

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>Substantial disagreements over the video streamer DouYu International’s strategic direction, prompts ownership re-think at Tencent; </li>
<li>Tencent is allegedly privatizing Douyu near the bottom of the market; and </li>
<li>Unlike the JD.com move, this transaction maximizes shareholder value while getting into regulatory compliance. </li>
</ul>


Substantial disagreements over the video streamer DouYu International’s strategic direction, prompts ownership re-think at Tencent; 
Tencent is allegedly privatizing Douyu near the bottom of the market; and 
Unlike the JD.com move, this transaction maximizes shareholder value while getting into regulatory compliance. 


Tencent Holdings – Getting Its House In Order

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huitongda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33789:1" rel="noopener">Huitongda (1566215D CH)</a> is a fast-growing commerce and service platform focused on China’s lower-tier retail market. It will launch an HKEx IPO on Monday to raise up to US$318 million.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huitongda-network-ipo-initiation-clicks-to-bricks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:63428" rel="noopener">Huitongda Network IPO Initiation: Clicks to Bricks</a>, we noted the positives (addressable market, solid growth and profitability) and key negatives (low margins which reflect a fragmented and competitive market).   </li>
<li>For investors willing to brave the gloomy IPO market, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive at the low end of the price range. </li>
</ul>



Huitongda (1566215D CH) is a fast-growing commerce and service platform focused on China’s lower-tier retail market. It will launch an HKEx IPO on Monday to raise up to US$318 million.
In Huitongda Network IPO Initiation: Clicks to Bricks, we noted the positives (addressable market, solid growth and profitability) and key negatives (low margins which reflect a fragmented and competitive market).   
For investors willing to brave the gloomy IPO market, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive at the low end of the price range. 


Huitongda Network IPO: Valuation Insights

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Tencent: 4Q2021 Earnings to Soften with Decelerating Games Growth and Weak Ad Revenue

We expect Tencent’s 4Q2021E results to show up further weaknesses in the company’s earnings driven by decelerating growth in online games and...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Huitongda IPO - Valuation

The valuation looks cheap compared to peers on the surface, but when compared after considering Huitongda’s 1P exposure its at a significant...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Huitongda (汇通达) IPO - Not the Right Price

Huitongda (9878 HK) is looking to raise up to US$318m in its Hong Kong IPO. Huitongda (HTD) is a leading commerce and service platform serving...

Clarence Chu

Tencent Holdings – Getting Its House In Order

TENCENT: Substantial disagreements over DouYu’s strategic direction, has caused a re-think at Tencent. Unlike the JD.com move, the Douyu move makes...

Thomas J. Monaco

Huitongda Network IPO: Valuation Insights

Huitongda will launch an HKEx IPO on Monday to raise up to US$318m. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive at the...

Arun George

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