HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Asymchem Laboratories Tianjin / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The three large orders for COVID-19 small molecule drugs are mostly one-off revenues, and after 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asymchem-laboratories" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35691:1" rel="noopener">Asymchem Laboratories (6821 HK)</a>'s performance could decline from a high base.</li>
<li>In essence, Asymchem mainly relies on cost advantage of large-scale capacity to obtain orders.Without core leading technology in frontier of medicine, Asymchem is difficult to enjoy sustainable industry development dividend.</li>
<li>Overall, Asymchem’s moat is not strong enough, and the certainty of the Company's long-term performance growth is also not high. It could be a short-term trade rather than long-term hold.</li>
</ul>


The three large orders for COVID-19 small molecule drugs are mostly one-off revenues, and after 2022, Asymchem Laboratories (6821 HK)'s performance could decline from a high base.
In essence, Asymchem mainly relies on cost advantage of large-scale capacity to obtain orders.Without core leading technology in frontier of medicine, Asymchem is difficult to enjoy sustainable industry development dividend.
Overall, Asymchem’s moat is not strong enough, and the certainty of the Company's long-term performance growth is also not high. It could be a short-term trade rather than long-term hold.


Asymchem Laboratories (6821.HK/002821.CH) - Concerns on Future Growth Momentum

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Consumer staples and information technology led the outflows of the market.</li>
<li>Stocks we highlighted include Zijin Mining, Nari, Wuxi Apptec, Sungrow, Moutai, Wuliangye, Yangtze Power, East Money</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Consumer staples and information technology led the outflows of the market.
Stocks we highlighted include Zijin Mining, Nari, Wuxi Apptec, Sungrow, Moutai, Wuliangye, Yangtze Power, East Money


Northbound Flows: Moutai, Wuliangye, Yangtze Power, East Money

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eli-lilly-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19419:1" rel="noopener">Eli Lilly'</a>s development strategy is worth learning from, which explains the investment logic of a lot of “smart money” and can also be used for reference by domestic pharmaceutical companies.</li>
<li>For CGT, before detail policies on how to properly commercialize CGT in China released, CXO with related R&amp;D capabilities could be a better investment option at the current stage.</li>
<li>The overall sleep situation of Chinese people is not optimistic, leading to the rapid development of China's sleep economy. Meanwhile, we also recommend that investors pay attention to sleep quality.</li>
</ul>



Eli Lilly's development strategy is worth learning from, which explains the investment logic of a lot of “smart money” and can also be used for reference by domestic pharmaceutical companies.
For CGT, before detail policies on how to properly commercialize CGT in China released, CXO with related R&amp;D capabilities could be a better investment option at the current stage.
The overall sleep situation of Chinese people is not optimistic, leading to the rapid development of China's sleep economy. Meanwhile, we also recommend that investors pay attention to sleep quality.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.25)- Viable Business Model for Pharma, CXO for CGT, China Sleep Economy

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 136 stocks over the last week.</li>
<li>Average A/H premium was 4.7ppt lower last week, led by consumer discretionary, material and healthcare. </li>
<li>37 stocks reached 52 week high last week but most have retreated since, representing arb opportunities in volatile market. </li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 136 stocks over the last week.
Average A/H premium was 4.7ppt lower last week, led by consumer discretionary, material and healthcare. 
37 stocks reached 52 week high last week but most have retreated since, representing arb opportunities in volatile market. 


A/H Premium Weekly: Arb Opportunities Last Week

<ul>
<li>The first to be affected is the clinical trial projects under way in Ukraine. It’s possible that pharmaceutical companies may lose such a high-quality and low cost clinical trial center. </li>
<li>Ukraine plays an important role in the healthcare supply chain. So, the war would affected both pharmaceutical companies and medical device companies, both directly and indirectly.</li>
<li>The risk to CXO is not completely eliminated. The “cyclical nature” of CRO industry could begin to show. But CDMO is better than CRO in terms of short-term investment opportunities.</li>
</ul>


The first to be affected is the clinical trial projects under way in Ukraine. It’s possible that pharmaceutical companies may lose such a high-quality and low cost clinical trial center. 
Ukraine plays an important role in the healthcare supply chain. So, the war would affected both pharmaceutical companies and medical device companies, both directly and indirectly.
The risk to CXO is not completely eliminated. The “cyclical nature” of CRO industry could begin to show. But CDMO is better than CRO in terms of short-term investment opportunities.


Russia-Ukraine War: The Impact on China Healthcare

China

WuXi AppTec Co., Ltd. manufactures medical products. The Company produces biological agents, antibodies, biological diagnostic reagents, and other products. WuXi AppTec also provides biological analysis, technical study, and other services.

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WuXi AppTec (603259 CH)

Asymchem Laboratories (6821.HK/002821.CH) - Concerns on Future Growth Momentum

Despite COVID-19 drug orders, Asymchem's performance could decline afterwards. In essence, it mainly relies on cost advantage of large-scale...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Northbound Flows: Moutai, Wuliangye, Yangtze Power, East Money

We highlighted top weekly northbound stock connect outflows from Moutai, Wuliangye, China Yangtze Power, East Money at the back drop of three weeks...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.25)- Viable Business Model for Pharma, CXO for CGT, China Sleep Economy

The strategy of Eli Lilly could be a good reference for domestic pharmaceutical companies.CXO for CGT is a better investment option.The sleep...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A/H Premium Weekly: Arb Opportunities Last Week

We highlight average A/H premium was 4.7ppt lower last week, led by consumer discretionary, material and healthcare. 37 stocks reached 52w high...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Russia-Ukraine War: The Impact on China Healthcare

We analyzed the potential impact of Russia-Ukraine war on China healthcare industry including the delay of clinical trial projects in Ukraine,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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