Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>During the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival, both flight and railway traffic seems sluggish, indicating a cooled-down enthusiasm for long-distance trips due to budget constraints.</li>
<li>Data points to booming short-distance travel with self-driving as the major means, helped by lower price;</li>
<li>Benefiting from hotel booking and catering, Meituan is the biggest beneficiary of such consumption downgrade.</li>
</ul>


During the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival, both flight and railway traffic seems sluggish, indicating a cooled-down enthusiasm for long-distance trips due to budget constraints.
Data points to booming short-distance travel with self-driving as the major means, helped by lower price;
Benefiting from hotel booking and catering, Meituan is the biggest beneficiary of such consumption downgrade.


Meituan Is the Biggest Beneficiary of China's Domestic Travel Recovery

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer for HK$18.6bn on strong two-way volumes. The top three net buys of the week were SOE banks. Some may be Central Huijin.</li>
<li>Some of this may be driven by the dividend w/h tax cancellation on H divs and by significant H-share discounts, but high-div CNOOC was the biggest net sell.</li>
<li>No end to the inflows, and HK valuations are not at a place where they would hamper continued flows. Alibaba making HK a Primary will spur more inflows over time.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer for HK$18.6bn on strong two-way volumes. The top three net buys of the week were SOE banks. Some may be Central Huijin.
Some of this may be driven by the dividend w/h tax cancellation on H divs and by significant H-share discounts, but high-div CNOOC was the biggest net sell.
No end to the inflows, and HK valuations are not at a place where they would hamper continued flows. Alibaba making HK a Primary will spur more inflows over time.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024); Strong Bank Buying and Tech Selling Continues

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

<ul>
<li>We notice a pickup in consumer acceptance of instrashopping, as result of COVID-cultivated behavior. We notice similar business model worked outside of China (Coupang) for densely populated urban upper-middle-class customers;</li>
<li>Meituan's launch of membership is a wise step towards strengthening user stickiness and emphasizing transaction soundness over impulsive buying. Meituan's portfolio in food, dining, hotel &amp; travel offer unparalleled value;</li>
<li>We see Meituan's success in Hong Kong honed a replicable business model targeting single and low priced segment. Consolation on a global scale now seems a possibility.</li>
</ul>


We notice a pickup in consumer acceptance of instrashopping, as result of COVID-cultivated behavior. We notice similar business model worked outside of China (Coupang) for densely populated urban upper-middle-class customers;
Meituan's launch of membership is a wise step towards strengthening user stickiness and emphasizing transaction soundness over impulsive buying. Meituan's portfolio in food, dining, hotel &amp; travel offer unparalleled value;
We see Meituan's success in Hong Kong honed a replicable business model targeting single and low priced segment. Consolation on a global scale now seems a possibility.


Meituan (3690 HK): Out of the Woods and Light a Fire

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>We upgrade Meituan because we believe its success in Hong Kong might be replicable on a global scale. </li>
<li>The upcoming autonomous driving (ADS) revolution has deep and fundamental implications in permanently cutting Meituan’s logistic cost;</li>
<li>We upgrade the stock from SELL to BUY and raise TP to HK$150/share</li>
</ul>


We upgrade Meituan because we believe its success in Hong Kong might be replicable on a global scale. 
The upcoming autonomous driving (ADS) revolution has deep and fundamental implications in permanently cutting Meituan’s logistic cost;
We upgrade the stock from SELL to BUY and raise TP to HK$150/share


[Meituan (3690 HK,BUY,TP HK$150) Rating Change]: A Turning Point Might Have Arrived on Two Catalysts

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a> has begun to generate positive EBITDA after several challenging years post-IPO.  With a high degree of operating leverage, the company is poised to grow quickly.
</li>
<li>Didi which maintains a 70% market share in the ride-hailing industry in China is expanding into Tier 3 cities where there is a large untapped opportunity.</li>
<li>The company has indicated that it wants to list in Hong Kong in 2025 providing a catalyst for share price re-rating next year.</li>
</ul>



DiDi Global (DIDI US) has begun to generate positive EBITDA after several challenging years post-IPO.  With a high degree of operating leverage, the company is poised to grow quickly.

Didi which maintains a 70% market share in the ride-hailing industry in China is expanding into Tier 3 cities where there is a large untapped opportunity.
The company has indicated that it wants to list in Hong Kong in 2025 providing a catalyst for share price re-rating next year.


2025 High Conviction Idea - DIDI Global, Smooth Ride to Higher Profits

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

Meituan Is the Biggest Beneficiary of China's Domestic Travel Recovery

Consumer enthusiasm for long-distance trips during the Dragon Boat Festival has cooled. Short-distance tours are popular, benefiting low-cost...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024); Strong Bank Buying and Tech Selling Continues

SOUTHBOUND flows continue to be strong. This week saw nearly HK$8bn bought on Banks and banks were top inflows. Some of this may be National Team...

Travis Lundy

Meituan (3690 HK): Out of the Woods and Light a Fire

Meituan plans to launch a comprehensive membership program as it extends instrashopping from grocery to daily goods, positive for its profit...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Meituan (3690 HK,BUY,TP HK$150) Rating Change]: A Turning Point Might Have Arrived on Two Catalysts

We upgrade Meituan because we believe its success in Hong Kong might be replicable on a global scale. Evidence has also emerged that domestic...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2025 High Conviction Idea - DIDI Global, Smooth Ride to Higher Profits

Didi Global has become EBITDA positive and is expanding rapidly into Tier 3 cities where it has an technical and market share advantage. The...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Meituan Is the Biggest Beneficiary of China's Domestic Travel Recovery

​Consumer enthusiasm for long-distance trips during the Dragon Boat Festival has cooled. Short-distance tours are popular, benefiting low-cost...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 May 2024); Strong Bank Buying and Tech Selling Continues

SOUTHBOUND flows continue to be strong. This week saw nearly HK$8bn bought on Banks and banks were top inflows. Some of this may be National Team...

Travis Lundy

Meituan (3690 HK): Out of the Woods and Light a Fire

​Meituan plans to launch a comprehensive membership program as it extends instrashopping from grocery to daily goods, positive for its profit...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Meituan (3690 HK,BUY,TP HK$150) Rating Change]: A Turning Point Might Have Arrived on Two Catalysts

We upgrade Meituan because we believe its success in Hong Kong might be replicable on a global scale. Evidence has also emerged that domestic...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2025 High Conviction Idea - DIDI Global, Smooth Ride to Higher Profits

Didi Global has become EBITDA positive and is expanding rapidly into Tier 3 cities where it has an technical and market share advantage. The...

David Mudd

Consumer enthusiasm for long-distance trips during the Dragon Boat Festival has cooled. Short-distance tours are popular, benefiting low-cost...

Meituan plans to launch a comprehensive membership program as it extends instrashopping from grocery to daily goods, positive for its profit...