China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We raise iQIYI’s membership/ads growth in 2Q23 from 12.9%/10.6% to 15.7%/22.4% YoY because of high quality content and recovery of major advertisers.</li>
<li>We upgrade iQIYI’s rating to BUY because:1) iQIYI exhibits advantages in content quality and production capabilities. 2) Major advertisers are expected to increase their advertising budgets continuously.</li>
<li>Emergency of mini drama is another variable for the Chinese online video industry. However, we anticipate the impact on iQIYI is relatively limited currently.</li>
</ul>


We raise iQIYI’s membership/ads growth in 2Q23 from 12.9%/10.6% to 15.7%/22.4% YoY because of high quality content and recovery of major advertisers.
We upgrade iQIYI’s rating to BUY because:1) iQIYI exhibits advantages in content quality and production capabilities. 2) Major advertisers are expected to increase their advertising budgets continuously.
Emergency of mini drama is another variable for the Chinese online video industry. However, we anticipate the impact on iQIYI is relatively limited currently.


[iQIYI (IQ US, BUY, TP US$6.25) Rating Change]: Competitive Advantage Is Established, Raise to BUY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Despite soft season and content delay, we expect IQ to deliver in-line 2Q23E, with rev +17% YoY (subs/ads +15%/25% YoY) and adj.</li><li>OP at RMB783mn (OPM at 10%). IQ outperformed than peers in Jun &amp; Jul, backed by popularity of Destined &lt;长风渡&gt; (viewership mkt share at 20%-30%).</li><li>After subs sequential decline in 2Q23E, we expect strong summer content to boost 3Q23E momentum (e.g. upcoming Mysterious Lotus Casebook). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite soft season and content delay, we expect IQ to deliver in-line 2Q23E, with rev +17% YoY (subs/ads +15%/25% YoY) and adj.OP at RMB783mn (OPM at 10%). IQ outperformed than peers in Jun &amp; Jul, backed by popularity of Destined &lt;长风渡&gt; (viewership mkt share at 20%-30%).After subs sequential decline in 2Q23E, we expect strong summer content to boost 3Q23E momentum (e.g. upcoming Mysterious Lotus Casebook). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IQIYI (IQ US) – Moving into 3Q23E Strong Pipeline

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We suggest that both Tencent and NetEase will launch blockbuster new games in their pipelines during this year's summer vacation, with NetEase slightly surpassing Tencent.  </li>
<li>Although iQIYI, Kuaishou, and BILI each have new games, their contributions are relatively small, so we maintain a SELL rating for these three companies;</li>
<li>Investors can also pay attention to Nexon and Netmarble, two Korean game companies that are expected to benefit from the launch of new games;  </li>
</ul>


We suggest that both Tencent and NetEase will launch blockbuster new games in their pipelines during this year's summer vacation, with NetEase slightly surpassing Tencent.  
Although iQIYI, Kuaishou, and BILI each have new games, their contributions are relatively small, so we maintain a SELL rating for these three companies;
Investors can also pay attention to Nexon and Netmarble, two Korean game companies that are expected to benefit from the launch of new games;  


Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update: Tencent, NetEase and Kingsoft Have Strong Pipeline

<ul><li>Although geographical tension and macro challenges are yet over, we believe most worst-case scenarios have been priced in.</li><li>Jun would be good timing to accumulate some defensive &amp; undervalued names over a 12-month horizon, as we expect sector sentiment will be moderately boosted by: 1) 2Q23E acceleration with low base; 2) upcoming strong drama &amp; game pipeline in summer holiday; 3) solid performance for 618 promotions;; and 4) potential positive economic incentives.</li><li>We prefer SFV&amp;LFV and game subsectors, for resilience on macro uncertainty, stable competition landscape, and better margin outlook with solid growth. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Although geographical tension and macro challenges are yet over, we believe most worst-case scenarios have been priced in.Jun would be good timing to accumulate some defensive &amp; undervalued names over a 12-month horizon, as we expect sector sentiment will be moderately boosted by: 1) 2Q23E acceleration with low base; 2) upcoming strong drama &amp; game pipeline in summer holiday; 3) solid performance for 618 promotions;; and 4) potential positive economic incentives.We prefer SFV&amp;LFV and game subsectors, for resilience on macro uncertainty, stable competition landscape, and better margin outlook with solid growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Entertainment – Embracing rich pipeline and sector mild re-rating

<ul><li>China’s total ad spending saw YoY recovery in 2Q23, due to both low base in 2Q22 and consumption recovery.</li><li>Total ad spend returned to positive growth of 15% YoY in April 2023, per CTR.</li><li>However, overall ad spend has yet to recover to the 2021 level, with ad spending in Apr 2023 only reached 92% of the ad spend level in Apr 2021. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s total ad spending saw YoY recovery in 2Q23, due to both low base in 2Q22 and consumption recovery.Total ad spend returned to positive growth of 15% YoY in April 2023, per CTR.However, overall ad spend has yet to recover to the 2021 level, with ad spending in Apr 2023 only reached 92% of the ad spend level in Apr 2021. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet – 2Q23 online advertising: recovery in cautious mode

China

iQIYI, Inc. offers video entertainment services. The Company provides movies, television dramas, variety shows, and other video contents. iQIYI offers services worldwide.

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iQIYI Inc (IQ US)

[iQIYI (IQ US, BUY, TP US$6.25) Rating Change]: Competitive Advantage Is Established, Raise to BUY

We upgrade iQIYI’s rating to BUY:1) iQIYI exhibits advantages in content quality and production capabilities. 2) Major advertisers are expected to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

IQIYI (IQ US) – Moving into 3Q23E Strong Pipeline

Despite soft season and content delay, we expect IQ to deliver in-line 2Q23E, with rev +17% YoY (subs/ads +15%/25% YoY) and adj.

CMB International

Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update: Tencent, NetEase and Kingsoft Have Strong Pipeline

We suggest that both Tencent and NetEase will launch blockbuster new games in their pipelines during this year's summer vacation, with NetEase...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Entertainment – Embracing rich pipeline and sector mild re-rating

Although geographical tension and macro challenges are yet over, we believe most worst-case scenarios have been priced in.

CMB International

China Internet – 2Q23 online advertising: recovery in cautious mode

China’s total ad spending saw YoY recovery in 2Q23, due to both low base in 2Q22 and consumption recovery. Total ad spend returned to positive...

CMB International

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