IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vertex-technology-acquisition-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35394:1" rel="noopener">Vertex Technology Acquisition Corporation (VTAC SP)</a> agreed to a De-SPAC transaction with 17LIVE, the top pure-play live streaming platform (by revenue) in Japan and Taiwan combined.</li>
<li>Industry data and the financials suggest that 17LIVE does not have a sustainable competitive advantage to translate its position into high earnings quality. </li>
<li>The purchase consideration of 17LIVE in the De-SPAC transaction is S$925.1 million (US$682.2 million). Our valuation analysis suggests that this consideration is full.</li>
</ul>



Vertex Technology Acquisition Corporation (VTAC SP) agreed to a De-SPAC transaction with 17LIVE, the top pure-play live streaming platform (by revenue) in Japan and Taiwan combined.
Industry data and the financials suggest that 17LIVE does not have a sustainable competitive advantage to translate its position into high earnings quality. 
The purchase consideration of 17LIVE in the De-SPAC transaction is S$925.1 million (US$682.2 million). Our valuation analysis suggests that this consideration is full.


Vertex Technology Acquisition (VTAC SP)/17LIVE: Turn Off

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Blue Lotus expects Huawei’s smartphone shipment market share to grow 5ppt in 2024, of which 2ppt from Apple and 1.5ppt from Honor;</li>
<li>The impacts are mainly two: (1) Huawei Appstore’s unique revenue share for games and apps, (2) Opportunity to recommend new games and apps through preinstallation;</li>
<li>We see the biggest positive impact on subscription-based video apps and the biggest negative impact on mobile games. We reiterate our Top Pick in iQIYI.</li>
</ul>


Blue Lotus expects Huawei’s smartphone shipment market share to grow 5ppt in 2024, of which 2ppt from Apple and 1.5ppt from Honor;
The impacts are mainly two: (1) Huawei Appstore’s unique revenue share for games and apps, (2) Opportunity to recommend new games and apps through preinstallation;
We see the biggest positive impact on subscription-based video apps and the biggest negative impact on mobile games. We reiterate our Top Pick in iQIYI.


[Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update]: What Change Can Mate 60 Bring to Games and Apps

<ul>
<li>TSLA/XPEV/1211: Tesla starts presales of revamped Model 3 in China at higher starting price (/-/-)</li>
<li>IQ：iQiYi’s drama pipeline was affected by lead actress Zu‘er(Lareina) Song’s tax evasion inspection (-)</li>
<li>Real Estate Industry Update/Beke: Beijing and Shanghai followed on implementing the housing loan loosening policy, transaction willingness improved immediately</li>
</ul>


TSLA/XPEV/1211: Tesla starts presales of revamped Model 3 in China at higher starting price (/-/-)
IQ：iQiYi’s drama pipeline was affected by lead actress Zu‘er(Lareina) Song’s tax evasion inspection (-)
Real Estate Industry Update/Beke: Beijing and Shanghai followed on implementing the housing loan loosening policy, transaction willingness improved immediately


China TMT Update-TSLA/XPEV/1211/IQ/Beke:Beijing and Shanghai Housing Loan Loosening;revamped Model 3

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>IQ reported 2Q23 revenue and non-GAAP net income 0.2%/28.5% vs cons.</li>
<li>We cut our projections for 3Q23's membership services revenue, but increased estimations for online ads services revenue, and raised margin forecasts for 2023.  </li>
<li>We maintain our US$ 6.25 TP, implying 16.2X PE in 2023.</li>
</ul>


IQ reported 2Q23 revenue and non-GAAP net income 0.2%/28.5% vs cons.
We cut our projections for 3Q23's membership services revenue, but increased estimations for online ads services revenue, and raised margin forecasts for 2023.  
We maintain our US$ 6.25 TP, implying 16.2X PE in 2023.


[iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US, BUY, TP US$6.25) Review]: Ads Revenue Will Continue to Have Fair Growth

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>IQiyi failed to give its share price a lift with  stronger-than-expected 2Q results except for slight miss in paying subscribers .</li>
<li>We believe that investors are expecting the end of its remarkable turnaround story and embracing a stable and moderate growth stage.</li>
<li>While iQiyi trades at ~10x our FY23 earnings, the cheap valuation by itself doesn’t stand out among China internet peers as a group. We would wait for better entry points.</li>
</ul>


IQiyi failed to give its share price a lift with  stronger-than-expected 2Q results except for slight miss in paying subscribers .
We believe that investors are expecting the end of its remarkable turnaround story and embracing a stable and moderate growth stage.
While iQiyi trades at ~10x our FY23 earnings, the cheap valuation by itself doesn’t stand out among China internet peers as a group. We would wait for better entry points.


IQIYI (IQ US): Embracing Moderate yet Stable Growth

China

iQIYI, Inc. offers video entertainment services. The Company provides movies, television dramas, variety shows, and other video contents. iQIYI offers services worldwide.

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iQIYI Inc (IQ US)

Vertex Technology Acquisition (VTAC SP)/17LIVE: Turn Off

Industry data and the financials suggest caution is warranted. The purchase consideration of 17LIVE in the De-SPAC transaction is S$925.1 million...

Arun George

[Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update]: What Change Can Mate 60 Bring to Games and Apps

We see the biggest positive impact on subscription-based video apps and the biggest negative impact on mobile games. We reiterate our Top Pick in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-TSLA/XPEV/1211/IQ/Beke:Beijing and Shanghai Housing Loan Loosening;revamped Model 3

Tesla starts presales of revamped Model 3 in China ;iQiYi’s drama pipeline was affected by lead actress Zu‘er(Lareina) Song’s tax evasion...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US, BUY, TP US$6.25) Review]: Ads Revenue Will Continue to Have Fair Growth

We cut our projections for 3Q23's membership services revenue, but increased estimations for online ads services revenue, and raised margin...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

IQIYI (IQ US): Embracing Moderate yet Stable Growth

IQ reported stronger-than-expected 2Q results, yet investors are expecting the end of remarkable turnaround and embracing moderate growth.

Eric Chen

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