Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of around 10 local Chinese news articles or company announcements, focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources </li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of around 10 local Chinese news articles or company announcements, focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources 


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 23 June 2023

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hailan-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39776:1" rel="noopener">Hailan Holdings (2278 HK)</a>'s voluntary conditional offer from its controlling shareholder at HK$3.36 per share is open. The IFA opines that the offer is fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The offer is subject to a 90% minimum acceptance condition – the offeror holds at least 90% of the offer shares and the disinterested shares.</li>
<li>The acceptance condition is daunting due to the high hurdle rate and the lack of a bump. The current gross spread of 5.0% equals the premium to the undisturbed price.  </li>
</ul>



Hailan Holdings (2278 HK)'s voluntary conditional offer from its controlling shareholder at HK$3.36 per share is open. The IFA opines that the offer is fair and reasonable.
The offer is subject to a 90% minimum acceptance condition – the offeror holds at least 90% of the offer shares and the disinterested shares.
The acceptance condition is daunting due to the high hurdle rate and the lack of a bump. The current gross spread of 5.0% equals the premium to the undisturbed price.  


Hailan Holdings (2278 HK): Conditional Offer Open but Success Is Daunting

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.</li>
<li>We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.
We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

Brilliance China Automotive / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. </li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

<ul>
<li>We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.</li>
<li>Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.
Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

China

Crown International Corp Limited engages in the businesses of hotel investment and operation and property investment.

E-House (China) Enterprise Holdings Limited provides real estate services. The Company offers primary real estate agency, big data and consulting, secondary brokerage platform, and other services. E-House (China) Enterprise Holdings provides services in Hong Kong.

FLJ Group Limited provides real estate services. The Company offers apartment on rental basis. FLJ Group serves customers in China.

Zhongliang Holdings Group Company Limited operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops and markets high-rise residential buildings, low-rise apartments, villas, commercial facilities, office buildings, and other related areas. Zhongliang Holdings Group provides property management services.

Zhong An Group Limited operates as a real estate development company. The Company builds shopping malls, office buildings, hotels, serviced apartments, and other buildings. Zhong An Group markets its products throughout China.

Kaisa Group Holdings Limited is an integrated real estate company. The Group focuses on urban development and operation. Kaisa Group's real estate business covers the planning, development and operation of large-scale residential properties and integrated commercial properties.

China Electronics Optics Valley Union Holding Company Limited develops and operates commercial business parks. The Company upgrades, restructures, develops and operates commercial business properties throughout China.

Beijing North Star Company Limited develops, leases, and invests in properties. The Company operates shopping centers, hotels, restaurants, and recreation businesses.  The Company also provides property management.

Huafa Property Services Group Company Limited operates as a property management company. The Company offers property and facility management, design and engineering consulting, brand introduction, hotel advisory, events, and exhibition services. Huafa Property Services Group serves clients in Hong Kong and China.

A-Living Smart City Services Co., Ltd. offers property management services. The Company provides hydropower maintenance, parking management, home cleaning, and other services. A-Living Smart City Services also engages in interior decoration works, landscaping works, and others.

AQ Estate Public Company Limited and its subsidiaries develop land and real estate including single family homes, duplex units, town homes and condominiums, for residential and commercial use.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides construction services, and owns and operates golf course.

Mongolia Growth Group Limited is a fully integrated and self-managed real estate investment company, and one of the largest owners and operators of high-quality commercial properties in downtown Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. The Company focuses on acquiring, owning, managing, and redeveloping top-tier retail, commercial, and office properties.

Chaoprayamahanakorn Public Company Limited operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops residential, universities and institutes, department stores, shopping centers, health care, retail, and commercial buildings. Chaoprayamahanakorn serves customers in Thailand.

Redsun Properties Group Limited operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops and markets residential areas, office buildings, hotels, restaurants, and other related areas. Redsun Properties Group markets its buildings throughout Cayman Islands.

China Infrastructure Investment Limited is an investment holding company. The Company mainly invests in property development and natural gas businesses. China Infrastructure Investment Limited operates out of Hong Kong.

KC Property Public Company Limited and its subsidiaries develop land and real estate in Thailand. The Company develops commercial buildings, apartment buildings, condominiums, single houses, townhouses, cluster houses, and garden resorts. The Company's projects include Ban Klang Buri, Modern Home  Place, and Modern Home Garden Village.

Sietel Limited, through its subsidiaries, invests in industrial and commercial real estate, provides financed and leased facilities, and plant and management services to its controlled entities.  The Company also develops hot water heaters and does vehicle body manufacturing for the commercial automobile industry.

Asia Resources Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on water business, property development, and investments. Asia Resources Holdings serves clients worldwide.

Eminence Enterprise Limited provides real estates services. The Company engages in property investment and development, as well as invests in listed securities and money lending business. Eminence Enterprise serves investors in in Hong Kong.

Deutsche Grundstuecksauktionen AG provides auctions for real estate properties. Its clients include private and commercial real estate management companies, the German government, local municipalities and cities.

Zhenro Properties Group Limited operates as a real estate development company. The Company builds and markets residential properties, office buildings, hotels, restaurants, and other related areas. Zhenro Properties Group also provides property management services. Zhenro Properties Group serves customers in China.

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Zhenro Properties Group (6158 HK)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 23 June 2023

Focused on Chinese developers in distress, this weekly curated selection of summarized local Chinese news/announcements gives a more local feel to...

Robert Ciemniak

Hailan Holdings (2278 HK): Conditional Offer Open but Success Is Daunting

The acceptance condition is daunting due to the high hurdle rate and the lack of a bump. Risk/reward is unattractive as the current gross spread of...

Arun George

HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 35 adds & 28 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 29 adds & 20 deletes for Stock Connect. 19 index constituents could be dropped from...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

We forecast 44 adds/19 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 37 adds/deletes for Southbound Stock Connect. There could be more Connect changes...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

We see 3 inclusions for the index in Dec, and then 26 adds/16 deletions in March. Following the March rebal, we see 22 adds/37 deletions for Stock...

Brian Freitas

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