Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

FTSE China A50 Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai composite breakout above 2,650 is a bullish catalyst for HK and pushing into secondary resistance. Typically, a re test of the breakout zone is often seen.Shanghai A50 futures face a formidable barrier that has capped rally attempts for the last 7 months.H share and the HSI are both exhibiting signs of distribution into strength. Choppy rising patterns warn that the rise is getting extended with breadth starting to struggle.Tencent is exhibiting upside momentum deterioration amid divergence.We question just how much trade deal euphoria is now priced into the HK market (and for that matter global cycle) and must take into account odds of a deadline extension deflating the current rally as the reality sets in that major trade issues remain unsettled.Any trade deal would give us an exhaustive spike higher while an extension would knock us back to re cycle supports.

Shanghai composite breakout above 2,650 is a bullish catalyst for HK and pushing into secondary resistance. Typically, a re test of the breakout zone is often seen.Shanghai A50 futures face a formidable barrier that has capped rally attempts for the last 7 months.H share and the HSI are both exhibiting signs of distribution into strength. Choppy rising patterns warn that the rise is getting extended with breadth starting to struggle.Tencent is exhibiting upside momentum deterioration amid divergence.We question just how much trade deal euphoria is now priced into the HK market (and for that matter global cycle) and must take into account odds of a deadline extension deflating the current rally as the reality sets in that major trade issues remain unsettled.Any trade deal would give us an exhaustive spike higher while an extension would knock us back to re cycle supports.

Baking in a Trade Deal and China Fade the Fact Levels

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Private Capital Markets

ByteDance, an emerging TMT player in China and one of the challengers to the BAT's dominance in China, is said to be preparing for 2019 listing. It will be the largest Chinese TMT listing this year as the company was valued at USD 75 billion in the pre-IPO fundraising, closed in October 2018. 
In this insight, we will discuss ByteDance's business, in particular, how the text-based media distribution platform Jinri Toutiao (今日头条) built the foundation of the company, and paved ways for the short-video distribution platform Watermelon Video (西瓜视频), Volcano Video (火山视频), and Tiktok (抖音).
In our next insight, we will discuss how Tiktok became successful and the company's overseas expansion.

ByteDance, an emerging TMT player in China and one of the challengers to the BAT's dominance in China, is said to be preparing for 2019 listing. It will be the largest Chinese TMT listing this year as the company was valued at USD 75 billion in the pre-IPO fundraising, closed in October 2018. 
In this insight, we will discuss ByteDance's business, in particular, how the text-based media distribution platform Jinri Toutiao (今日头条) built the foundation of the company, and paved ways for the short-video distribution platform Watermelon Video (西瓜视频), Volcano Video (火山视频), and Tiktok (抖音).
In our next insight, we will discuss how Tiktok became successful and the company's overseas expansion.

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Our stub valuation analysis reveals that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/179" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1">Baidu Inc (ADR) (BIDU US)</a> attractively trades at near 2 SD below its 3-yr average of NAV discount.</li>
<li>Fundamentally, BIDU's core business (Baidu Core) has grown healthily, with strong cash flows generation.</li>
<li>China consumption slowdown is likely to mean modest sales growth deceleration (not a "sales falling off the cliff" scenario) for BIDU in 2019E.</li>
<li>Implied in the current ADR price, the market is unjustifiably valuing Baidu Core (11.2x 2019E PE) as an "Old economy" company with little to no growth prospect, in our opinion.</li>
<li>Our PT for next 3-6 mo, assuming 10% holdco discount to NAV, works out to be US$224/ADR, representing a 27% upside potential.   </li>
</ul>


Our stub valuation analysis reveals that Baidu Inc (ADR) (BIDU US) attractively trades at near 2 SD below its 3-yr average of NAV discount.
Fundamentally, BIDU's core business (Baidu Core) has grown healthily, with strong cash flows generation.
China consumption slowdown is likely to mean modest sales growth deceleration (not a "sales falling off the cliff" scenario) for BIDU in 2019E.
Implied in the current ADR price, the market is unjustifiably valuing Baidu Core (11.2x 2019E PE) as an "Old economy" company with little to no growth prospect, in our opinion.
Our PT for next 3-6 mo, assuming 10% holdco discount to NAV, works out to be US$224/ADR, representing a 27% upside potential.   


Baidu: Time to Swoop In, with NAV Discount Widening Substantially

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

With the shares hitting all-time highs, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27250" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> announced a follow-on public offering to raise net proceeds (potentially of $1.1 billion) from the sale of 37 million ADS along with the placing of 14.8 million ADS from existing shareholders (post-lockup expiry).<div class="content-highlight">We have been bulls on Pinduoduo with the shares up 60% since its IPO. While Pinduoduo is a good company, we believe this follow-on offering is highly opportunistic and provides limited upside to investors participating in this offering.</div>

With the shares hitting all-time highs, Pinduoduo (PDD US) announced a follow-on public offering to raise net proceeds (potentially of $1.1 billion) from the sale of 37 million ADS along with the placing of 14.8 million ADS from existing shareholders (post-lockup expiry).We have been bulls on Pinduoduo with the shares up 60% since its IPO. While Pinduoduo is a good company, we believe this follow-on offering is highly opportunistic and provides limited upside to investors participating in this offering.

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Follow-On Offering Is a Smart Move for the Company, Rather than for Investors

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US-China trade negotiations are focusing on the easy parts to avoid truly difficult discussions on thornier structural issues. </li>
<li>Beijing is trying to buy their way to a compromise by taking out their checkbook and promising to buy more US products. </li>
<li>A truly comprehensive trade pact will be difficult, perhaps even impossible, to reach. That’s because many of the problems Washington wants resolved in China will require more than a few regulatory tweaks. </li>
<li>The bureaucratic harassment, theft of intellectual property, and overt favoritism toward local firms that make doing business in China difficult for American chief executives are caused by the very way the Chinese economy works.</li>
<li>Changing these procedures means changing China’s basic economic system. Beijing’s leaders cannot possibly achieve such an overhaul in the short term—assuming they even want to.</li>
</ul><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/01/23/us-china-trade-endgame-is-unclear-says-expert.html" target="_blank">CNBC Interview of David Riedel on US-China Trade</a>


US-China trade negotiations are focusing on the easy parts to avoid truly difficult discussions on thornier structural issues. 
Beijing is trying to buy their way to a compromise by taking out their checkbook and promising to buy more US products. 
A truly comprehensive trade pact will be difficult, perhaps even impossible, to reach. That’s because many of the problems Washington wants resolved in China will require more than a few regulatory tweaks. 
The bureaucratic harassment, theft of intellectual property, and overt favoritism toward local firms that make doing business in China difficult for American chief executives are caused by the very way the Chinese economy works.
Changing these procedures means changing China’s basic economic system. Beijing’s leaders cannot possibly achieve such an overhaul in the short term—assuming they even want to.
CNBC Interview of David Riedel on US-China Trade

China Strategy of Promising to Buy Stuff Just Might Work on Trump as He Looks for an Easy “victory”

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Tencent (700 HK)

Baking in a Trade Deal and China Fade the Fact Levels

Shanghai composite breakout above 2,650 is a bullish catalyst for HK and pushing into secondary resistance. Typically, a re test of the breakout...

Thomas Schroeder

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)

ByteDance, an emerging TMT player in China and one of the challengers to the BAT's dominance in China, is said to be preparing for 2019 listing....

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Baidu: Time to Swoop In, with NAV Discount Widening Substantially

Our stub valuation analysis reveals that Baidu Inc (ADR) (BIDU US) attractively trades at near 2 SD below its 3-yr average of NAV...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Follow-On Offering Is a Smart Move for the Company, Rather than for Investors

With the shares hitting all-time highs, Pinduoduo (PDD US) announced a follow-on public offering to raise net proceeds (potentially of $1.1...

Arun George

China Strategy of Promising to Buy Stuff Just Might Work on Trump as He Looks for an Easy “victory”

US-China trade negotiations are focusing on the easy parts to avoid truly difficult discussions on thornier structural issues. Beijing is trying...

David Riedel

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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