Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<div>During COVID-19, tech stocks have led the markets supported by demand expansion, strong balance sheets filled with cash, and innovative products. At the end of the cycle, there should be a rotation towards cyclical and value stocks but this time around is policy-induced recovery and during the COVID-19 crisis, tech stocks have led the recovery ahead of the cyclical. The question is whether this will carry on and large tech names to continue leading market recovery while cyclical drag their feet?</div>
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<div>The regulator in China has given dominant tech names a slap in the wrist with the anti-trust law that proposes to democratize the payment systems that will inevitably break up the monopolies and these companies will lose their customers' stickiness. </div>
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<div>In light of the <strong>antitrust</strong> law and the real economic recovery in China, investors should start to underweight technology stocks in China such as Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and start to overweight travel and tourism stocks such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1080:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> and also Industrials such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoomlion-heavy-industry-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7817:1" rel="noopener">Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment Intl (631 HK)</a>expecting that construction works can resume at full capacity anytime soon. </div>
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<div>Globally, dominant tech stocks (FANGS) such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netflix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20451:1" rel="noopener">Netflix Inc (NFLX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> should start to be underweight due to the potential punitive measures from the House if Democrats win. Investors should start to overweight industrial stocks such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caterpillar-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:697:1" rel="noopener">Caterpillar Inc (CAT US)</a> and staples such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/procter-gamble-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:978:1" rel="noopener">Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-sa-020546b9-e58a-465b-a5ac-98e84143bf4c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27908:1" rel="noopener">Nestle SA (NESN SW)</a> . </div>
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<div>Investors should also consider start building positions in blue-chip with moat names such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visa-inc-class-a-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8707:1" rel="noopener">Visa Inc Class A Shares (V US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelers-cos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10300:1" rel="noopener">Travelers Cos (TRV US)</a> as they provide stability and proxy to America's economic recovery. </div>


During COVID-19, tech stocks have led the markets supported by demand expansion, strong balance sheets filled with cash, and innovative products. At the end of the cycle, there should be a rotation towards cyclical and value stocks but this time around is policy-induced recovery and during the COVID-19 crisis, tech stocks have led the recovery ahead of the cyclical. The question is whether this will carry on and large tech names to continue leading market recovery while cyclical drag their feet?


The regulator in China has given dominant tech names a slap in the wrist with the anti-trust law that proposes to democratize the payment systems that will inevitably break up the monopolies and these companies will lose their customers' stickiness. 



In light of the antitrust law and the real economic recovery in China, investors should start to underweight technology stocks in China such as Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and start to overweight travel and tourism stocks such as Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH) , Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) , Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) and also Industrials such as Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK) and Sany Heavy Equipment Intl (631 HK)expecting that construction works can resume at full capacity anytime soon. 

Globally, dominant tech stocks (FANGS) such as Facebook Inc A (FB US) , Apple Inc (AAPL US) , Netflix Inc (NFLX US) and Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) should start to be underweight due to the potential punitive measures from the House if Democrats win. Investors should start to overweight industrial stocks such as Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) and staples such as Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG US) and Nestle SA (NESN SW) . 

Investors should also consider start building positions in blue-chip with moat names such as Visa Inc Class A Shares (V US) and Travelers Cos (TRV US) as they provide stability and proxy to America's economic recovery. 

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<div>And the rest, as they say, is history.</div>
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<div>At the 11th hour, leading to what would the world's largest IPO, with an implied valuation of US$316bn - nearly 20% larger than the world's largest bank, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ind-comm-bk-of-china-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> - the Shanghai Stock Exchange <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1103/2020110302285.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cancelled</a> the A-Share listing saying that the interviews that authorities had conducted with Jack Ma and regulation changes were not adequately explained in the documents, and the listing could not go ahead. Shortly after, Ant Group pulled its H-Share offering too.</div>
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<div>It's easy to point the finger at Jack Ma's bellicose speech in Shanghai on the 24 October, in which he suggested traditional Chinese banks should change their “pawnshop” operating model. Arguably, this didn't help.</div>
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<div>But the scuppering of the IPO is not some juicy vendetta - simply the reality of China's state-controlled banking system.</div>
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<div>The runaway success of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> - and other massive tech companies such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> - pivots off a less regulated entity pitched against more heavily regulated rivals.</div>
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<div>The reining in of "disruptors" reach of these tech companies came in for even greater oversight yesterday with proposed new government measures to stomp on monopolistic practices, as a means to curtail their influence.</div>
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<div>What does all this mean for big Chinese tech companies? Yesterday's downward move in BABA and Tencent could be just a sign of things to come.</div>
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<div>More below the fold.</div>
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And the rest, as they say, is history.






At the 11th hour, leading to what would the world's largest IPO, with an implied valuation of US$316bn - nearly 20% larger than the world's largest bank, ICBC (H) (1398 HK) - the Shanghai Stock Exchange cancelled the A-Share listing saying that the interviews that authorities had conducted with Jack Ma and regulation changes were not adequately explained in the documents, and the listing could not go ahead. Shortly after, Ant Group pulled its H-Share offering too.





Source: FT




It's easy to point the finger at Jack Ma's bellicose speech in Shanghai on the 24 October, in which he suggested traditional Chinese banks should change their “pawnshop” operating model. Arguably, this didn't help.

But the scuppering of the IPO is not some juicy vendetta - simply the reality of China's state-controlled banking system.

The runaway success of Alibaba Group (9988 HK) / Ant Group (6688 HK) - and other massive tech companies such as Tencent Holdings (700 HK) - pivots off a less regulated entity pitched against more heavily regulated rivals.


The reining in of "disruptors" reach of these tech companies came in for even greater oversight yesterday with proposed new government measures to stomp on monopolistic practices, as a means to curtail their influence.

What does all this mean for big Chinese tech companies? Yesterday's downward move in BABA and Tencent could be just a sign of things to come.

More below the fold.

















































Party Poopers: Reining In China's Internet

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Kuaishou Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH)</a> (KT) is a content community and social platform. The company is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, Sequoia China, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.</p><p> As of six months ended Jun 2020, it had 302m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 85 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 776m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB109.6bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.</p><p> As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>In this note, I'll talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</p>

Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH) (KT) is a content community and social platform. The company is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Sequoia China, Baidu (BIDU US), DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others. As of six months ended Jun 2020, it had 302m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 85 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 776m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB109.6bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20. As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.In this note, I'll talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, Fast Growth

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Sunac Services Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-services-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29239:1" rel="noopener">Sunac Services (1516 HK)</a> is a Chinese property management company. Sunac is the fastest-growing large-scale property management service provider in China, according to China Index Academy. At the proposed IPO price range of HK$10.55-12.65 per share, Sunac will have a market cap of HK$31,650-37,950 million ($4.1-4.9 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Sunac will raise net proceeds of HK$7,810.0 million ($1 billion).</p>
<p>Four cornerstone investors will subscribe for $370 million worth of the offer shares (35.83% of the offer shares at the IPO mid-point). The cornerstone investors are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, IDG Capital, Hillhouse Capital and Snow Lake Capital. </p>
</div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sunac-services-ipo-initiation-next-in-line" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that Sunac’s fundamentals over the track record period are attractive. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sunac-services-ipo-phip-data-points" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our PHIP update note</a>, we noted that the PHIP data points support our view that Sunac is a well-run property management company. However, the poor post-IPO performance of recent property management IPOs despite good fundamentals was likely due to investors unwilling to pay a growth premium compared to an ever-expanding selection of listed peers. We label this insight bearish as our valuation analysis suggests that we would participate at most at the low-end of the IPO price range. </p></div></div>


Sunac Services (1516 HK) is a Chinese property management company. Sunac is the fastest-growing large-scale property management service provider in China, according to China Index Academy. At the proposed IPO price range of HK$10.55-12.65 per share, Sunac will have a market cap of HK$31,650-37,950 million ($4.1-4.9 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Sunac will raise net proceeds of HK$7,810.0 million ($1 billion).
Four cornerstone investors will subscribe for $370 million worth of the offer shares (35.83% of the offer shares at the IPO mid-point). The cornerstone investors are Tencent Holdings (700 HK), IDG Capital, Hillhouse Capital and Snow Lake Capital. 
In our initiation note, we stated that Sunac’s fundamentals over the track record period are attractive. In our PHIP update note, we noted that the PHIP data points support our view that Sunac is a well-run property management company. However, the poor post-IPO performance of recent property management IPOs despite good fundamentals was likely due to investors unwilling to pay a growth premium compared to an ever-expanding selection of listed peers. We label this insight bearish as our valuation analysis suggests that we would participate at most at the low-end of the IPO price range. 

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> has announced that it intends to seek approval for A stock split at its AGM on 14th December, the normal reason for which is to improve liquidity in the shares by making a company more accessible for retail investors. We see this as a potential precursor to further corporate actions along the line, involving some form of group restructuring, and this gives the company a more liquid currency to do this.</p>
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<p>This may involve some form of reorganization within the group, which holds its media assets under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> but a number of other digital economy assets under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> including a stake in e-commerce player Bukalapak and leading digital payments company Dana (a 50/50 JV with Ant Financial (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)</a> has recently announced it will invest US$100m into Bukalapak, which is now valued at US$3bn.</p>
<p>Looking at the valuation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US),</a> which is trading on 13x EV/Sales, it is highly likely the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> can command a higher valuation if it becomes more accessible, given there are no other ways to get listed exposure to Indonesia's booming e-commerce.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> currently trades on 4.6x FY20E EV/Sales.  Investors are likely to pay a premium for access to a liquid <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>, with a strong mix of cash-generating media assets and high growth digital assets.  </p>
<p>We also continue to like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ),</a> as Indonesia's top media player with an increasingly digital twist through <a href="http://vidio.com/" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="http://Vidio.com" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">Vidio.com</a>. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pt-surya-citra-media-tbk-scma-ij-let-the-games-begin" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pt-surya-citra-media-tbk-scma-ij-let-the-games-begin" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Let the Games Begin</a> for more details.</p>


Emtek (EMTK IJ) has announced that it intends to seek approval for A stock split at its AGM on 14th December, the normal reason for which is to improve liquidity in the shares by making a company more accessible for retail investors. We see this as a potential precursor to further corporate actions along the line, involving some form of group restructuring, and this gives the company a more liquid currency to do this.

This may involve some form of reorganization within the group, which holds its media assets under PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) but a number of other digital economy assets under Emtek (EMTK IJ) including a stake in e-commerce player Bukalapak and leading digital payments company Dana (a 50/50 JV with Ant Financial (Alibaba Group (BABA US)).
Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) has recently announced it will invest US$100m into Bukalapak, which is now valued at US$3bn.
Looking at the valuation of Sea Ltd (SE US), which is trading on 13x EV/Sales, it is highly likely the Emtek (EMTK IJ) can command a higher valuation if it becomes more accessible, given there are no other ways to get listed exposure to Indonesia's booming e-commerce.
Emtek (EMTK IJ) currently trades on 4.6x FY20E EV/Sales.  Investors are likely to pay a premium for access to a liquid Emtek (EMTK IJ), with a strong mix of cash-generating media assets and high growth digital assets.  
We also continue to like PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ), as Indonesia's top media player with an increasingly digital twist through Vidio.com. Please see PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Let the Games Begin for more details.

Emtek (EMTK IJ) - Arise a New Champion of Indonesia Tech?

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Tech Sell-Off: Stop or Carry On?

In light of the anti-trust law in China, real economic recovery, higher corporate tax rates in the US, and breakup of dominant tech firms,...

Henry Soediarko

Party Poopers: Reining In China's Internet

It is a delicate dance to promote home-grown tech companies while keeping existing market forces in check. But it is no secret the PRC government's...

David Blennerhassett

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, Fast Growth

Kuaishou Technology is a content community and social platform. The company is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Sequoia China, Baidu (BIDU US),...

Sumeet Singh

Sunac Services IPO: Valuation Insights

Sunac is seeking to raise net proceeds of HK$7,810.0 million ($1 billion). We label this insight bearish as we would participate at most at the low...

Arun George

Emtek (EMTK IJ) - Arise a New Champion of Indonesia Tech?

Emtek recently announced its intention to seek approval for a stock split at its AGM in December. We see this as a precursor for further corporate...

Angus Mackintosh

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