TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Meta Platforms (Facebook) / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Sheesh! The media pays attention to the faux antitrust lawsuits that have been sprouting the past month against the tech platforms…none of which will actually alter the respective competitive positions for Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Apple.</p><p>However, Apple’s once delayed but now imminent rollout of “opt-in” for ad-tracking seems to be an actual near term threat for Facebook given Facebook’s vociferous responses over the past week or two. Or is it?</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Sheesh! The media pays attention to the faux antitrust lawsuits that have been sprouting the past month against the tech platforms…none of which will actually alter the respective competitive positions for Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Apple.However, Apple’s once delayed but now imminent rollout of “opt-in” for ad-tracking seems to be an actual near term threat for Facebook given Facebook’s vociferous responses over the past week or two. Or is it?Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul class="">
<li>The Chinese game market size increased at a faster pace in 4Q20 than previous quarters.</li>
<li>Chinese game developers achieved higher growth overseas than in the domestic market in 4Q20.</li>
<li>We expect 2021 will be a better year for game companies.</li>
</ul>


The Chinese game market size increased at a faster pace in 4Q20 than previous quarters.
Chinese game developers achieved higher growth overseas than in the domestic market in 4Q20.
We expect 2021 will be a better year for game companies.


Tencent (700 HK): China Game Achieved Better 4Q20, Largely Due to Overseas Market

<ul>
<li>China Audio-Video and Digital Publishing Association announced <em>the Age Rating of Online Game</em>.</li>
<li>Many online platforms stopped selling cash deposit products.</li>
<li>Online payment amount grew by 28% YoY on the shopping season “December 12”.</li>
</ul>


China Audio-Video and Digital Publishing Association announced the Age Rating of Online Game.
Many online platforms stopped selling cash deposit products.
Online payment amount grew by 28% YoY on the shopping season “December 12”.


China Internet Weekly (21Dec2020): Online Games Rated by Age, Online Platforms Banned from Deposit

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p>Earlier this year Education Australia Ltd, raised  US$153m (A$225m) via selling a 5.1% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idp-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1098:1" rel="noopener">IDP Education (IEL AU)</a>. The lock-up from that deal is about to end.</p>
<p>Education Australia is the largest shareholder for IDP and since the last selldown it has launched a formal review of the rest of its stake.  In this insight, I'll take an early look at the possible block/blocks that could be on the way. </p>
</div><div>
<p>We have followed the company since it listed in Nov 2015, links to our earlier notes are below:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-preview-growing-market-and-strategic-co-owner-combined-with-a-global-brand-means-its-set-to-fly" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPO Preview:Growing market and strategic co-owner combined with a global brand means its set to fly, </a>  </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quick-note-global-brand-at-an-attractive-price" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Quick Note: Global brand at an attractive price,</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/idp-education-first-test-them-then-place-them" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IDP Education: First Test Them, Then Place Them,</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/idp-education-placement-testing-times-but-it-will-pass-probably-with-flying-colours" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IDP Education Placement: Testing Times but It Will Pass, Probably with Flying Colours,</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/idp-education-placement-last-deal-was-a-smash-hit-this-one-won-t-be-as-lucky" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IDP Education Placement - Last Deal Was a Smash Hit, This One Won’t Be as Lucky</a></li>
</ul>
</div>


Earlier this year Education Australia Ltd, raised  US$153m (A$225m) via selling a 5.1% stake in IDP Education (IEL AU). The lock-up from that deal is about to end.
Education Australia is the largest shareholder for IDP and since the last selldown it has launched a formal review of the rest of its stake.  In this insight, I'll take an early look at the possible block/blocks that could be on the way. 

We have followed the company since it listed in Nov 2015, links to our earlier notes are below:


IPO Preview:Growing market and strategic co-owner combined with a global brand means its set to fly,   
Quick Note: Global brand at an attractive price,
IDP Education: First Test Them, Then Place Them,
IDP Education Placement: Testing Times but It Will Pass, Probably with Flying Colours,
IDP Education Placement - Last Deal Was a Smash Hit, This One Won’t Be as Lucky



IDP Education Placement Early Look - A Big Block/Whole Lot of Blocks Could Be Coming

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Private Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)</a> has confirmed that it has hired Morgan Stanley and Citigroup as advisers to help accelerate its plan to go public. The company has not yet decided which route to take to come to market, whether through a straightforward IPO or a SPAC listing, potentially through Richard Li and Peter Thiel's Bridgetown Holdings Ltd.</p>
<p>The company had previously stated that it would definitely seek a listing in its home market of Indonesia, with a potential dual listing in the US, although these statements were made pre-pandemic. </p>
<p>Valuations for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)</a> range from US$8-10bn, although after the last round of funding it was valued at US$7.5bn, making it Indonesia's second most valuation start-up after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a>, which was last valued at US$10bn.</p>
<p>An IPO would help the company realize a higher valuation, providing a currency to drive future growth, given it would be an alternative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US), </a>as the number 2 e-commerce player in Indonesia. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> trades at 13x FY21E EV/Sales currently and just raised more than US$2bn through a placement of new ADS's. We look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)</a> and its positioning in more detail below the fold. </p>

Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ) has confirmed that it has hired Morgan Stanley and Citigroup as advisers to help accelerate its plan to go public. The company has not yet decided which route to take to come to market, whether through a straightforward IPO or a SPAC listing, potentially through Richard Li and Peter Thiel's Bridgetown Holdings Ltd.
The company had previously stated that it would definitely seek a listing in its home market of Indonesia, with a potential dual listing in the US, although these statements were made pre-pandemic. 
Valuations for Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ) range from US$8-10bn, although after the last round of funding it was valued at US$7.5bn, making it Indonesia's second most valuation start-up after Gojek (1379371D IJ), which was last valued at US$10bn.
An IPO would help the company realize a higher valuation, providing a currency to drive future growth, given it would be an alternative to Sea Ltd (SE US), as the number 2 e-commerce player in Indonesia. Sea Ltd (SE US) trades at 13x FY21E EV/Sales currently and just raised more than US$2bn through a placement of new ADS's. We look at Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ) and its positioning in more detail below the fold. 

Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ) - From Private to Public by Hook or by Crook

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Facebook: Apple Threat Fact or Fiction?

Facebook has been complaining publicly the past two weeks about how Apple's impending privacy restrictions will hurt small businesses. We doubt it...

Aaron Gabin

Tencent (700 HK): China Game Achieved Better 4Q20, Largely Due to Overseas Market

The Chinese game market size gained higher growth rates in 4Q20 than previous quarters. Chinese game developers achieved higher growth overseas...

Ming Lu

China Internet Weekly (21Dec2020): Online Games Rated by Age, Online Platforms Banned from Deposit

Authorities announced the Age Rating of Online Game. Many online platforms stopped selling cash deposit products. Online payment amount grew by 28%...

Ming Lu

IDP Education Placement Early Look - A Big Block/Whole Lot of Blocks Could Be Coming

Earlier this year Education Australia Ltd, raised US$153m via selling a 5.1% stake in IDP Education (IEL AU). The lock-up from that deal is about...

Sumeet Singh

Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ) - From Private to Public by Hook or by Crook

Tokopedia has confirmed that it is looking to go public and has enlisted Investment Banks to speed the process. This will give investors an...

Angus Mackintosh

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