IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhihu Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhihu-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32185:1" rel="noopener">Zhihu Technology (ZH US)</a> is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, both in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020, according to CIC.</p></div><div><p>Zhihu has priced its IPO at $9.50 per ADS which at the low-end of the IPO price range of $9.50-11.50 per ADS, according to press reports. At the final IPO price of $9.50 per share, Zhihu will have a market cap of $5.7 billion. Zhihu will also raise an additional $250 million in a concurrent private placement to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> and Lilith Games.</p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhihu-ipo-initiation-question-time" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48928" rel="noopener">Zhihu IPO Initiation: Question Time</a>, we opined that as the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community, Zhihu is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. We concluded that Zhihu’s fundamentals are attractive. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhihu-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49410" rel="noopener">Zhihu IPO: Valuation Insights,</a> we noted that the IPO price range is attractive. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>However, since the launch of the IPO, a brutal sell-off on Chinese ADRs was triggered by SEC adopting measures that would kick foreign companies off US stock exchanges if they do not comply with US auditing standards. Despite the subsequent de-rating of peers, Zhihu remains attractive at the IPO price. Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $12.35 per ADS. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis points to a meaningful upside based on securing a modest share of the addressable market. </p></div></div></div>

Zhihu Technology (ZH US) is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, both in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020, according to CIC.Zhihu has priced its IPO at $9.50 per ADS which at the low-end of the IPO price range of $9.50-11.50 per ADS, according to press reports. At the final IPO price of $9.50 per share, Zhihu will have a market cap of $5.7 billion. Zhihu will also raise an additional $250 million in a concurrent private placement to Alibaba Group (BABA US), JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US), Tencent Holdings (700 HK) and Lilith Games.In Zhihu IPO Initiation: Question Time, we opined that as the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community, Zhihu is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. We concluded that Zhihu’s fundamentals are attractive. In Zhihu IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price range is attractive. However, since the launch of the IPO, a brutal sell-off on Chinese ADRs was triggered by SEC adopting measures that would kick foreign companies off US stock exchanges if they do not comply with US auditing standards. Despite the subsequent de-rating of peers, Zhihu remains attractive at the IPO price. Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $12.35 per ADS. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis points to a meaningful upside based on securing a modest share of the addressable market. 

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhihu-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32185:1" rel="noopener">Zhihu Technology (ZH US)</a> was said to have raised US$773m at the bottom-end of the IPO price range (including the US$250m concurrent placement).</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Zhihu is a question-and-answer (Q&amp;A) focused online content community. According to CIC, the company is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five online content communities in China in terms of mobile monthly active users (MAUs)  and revenue. As of 4Q20, the company has 75.7m average MAU, a cumulative 315.3m questions and answers contributed by 43.1m content creators.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>In this note, we will look at deal dynamics and updates on valuation.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Our previous coverage of Zhihu:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhihu-pre-ipo-in-the-early-stages-of-monetization" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49157" rel="noopener">Zhihu (知乎) Pre-IPO - In the Early Stages of Monetization</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhihu-censorship-as-top-risk-may-follow-fate-of-weibo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49184" rel="noopener">Zhihu (知乎): Censorship as Top Risk, May Follow Fate of Weibo</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhihu-ipo-monetizing-curiosity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49467" rel="noopener">Zhihu (知乎) IPO - Monetizing Curiosity</a> </li>
</ul>
</div>


Zhihu Technology (ZH US) was said to have raised US$773m at the bottom-end of the IPO price range (including the US$250m concurrent placement).


Zhihu is a question-and-answer (Q&amp;A) focused online content community. According to CIC, the company is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five online content communities in China in terms of mobile monthly active users (MAUs)  and revenue. As of 4Q20, the company has 75.7m average MAU, a cumulative 315.3m questions and answers contributed by 43.1m content creators.


In this note, we will look at deal dynamics and updates on valuation.


Our previous coverage of Zhihu:




Zhihu (知乎) Pre-IPO - In the Early Stages of Monetization 

Zhihu (知乎): Censorship as Top Risk, May Follow Fate of Weibo 

Zhihu (知乎) IPO - Monetizing Curiosity 



Zhihu (知乎) IPO Trading - Peers Have Corrected Significantly but Still Has a Modest Upside

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<div><p>Linklogis, a technology solution provider for supply chain finance in China, is aiming to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. Its investors include Tencent, GIC and Standard Chartered Bank.</p></div><div><p>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier insights,</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linklogis-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growing-blockchain-driven-supply-chain-financier" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Linklogis Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growing Blockchain Driven Supply Chain Financier,</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linklogis-pre-ipo-the-negatives-inconsistent-growth-and-margins-well-funded-competitors" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Linklogis Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Inconsistent Growth and Margins, Well Funded Competitors, and</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linklogis-pre-ipo-earnings-forecast-peer-comparison-and-first-stab-at-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Linklogis Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast, Peer Comparison and First Stab at Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linklogis-pre-ipo-phip-updates-nothing-to-complain-about" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Linklogis Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Nothing to Complain About</a></li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this note, we'll talk about deal dynamics and final valuation.</p></div>

Linklogis, a technology solution provider for supply chain finance in China, is aiming to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. Its investors include Tencent, GIC and Standard Chartered Bank.We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier insights,

Linklogis Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growing Blockchain Driven Supply Chain Financier, 
Linklogis Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Inconsistent Growth and Margins, Well Funded Competitors, and
Linklogis Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast, Peer Comparison and First Stab at Valuation
Linklogis Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Nothing to Complain About
In this note, we'll talk about deal dynamics and final valuation.

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p>On 24th Mar 2021, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. On the back of this, large China ADRs fell by 7.5% on average. </p>
<p>We have covered various aspects of this topic before in our prior note, links to which are below. In this note, I'll talk about the SEC updates.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>In our previous notes:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-deep-dive-yin-and-yang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang,</a> published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-covid-19-has-increased-the-tension-but-narrowed-the-short-list" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List</a> published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-holding-foreign-companies-accountable-act-i-m-coming-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home</a>, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-pipeline-looks-rich-have-three-years-to-move" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move</a>, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. </li>
</ul>
</div>


On 24th Mar 2021, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. On the back of this, large China ADRs fell by 7.5% on average. 
We have covered various aspects of this topic before in our prior note, links to which are below. In this note, I'll talk about the SEC updates.


In our previous notes:




China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang, published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. 

In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. 



China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> reported its 4Q2020 results on Wednesday (24<sup>th</sup> March 2021) which saw revenues increasing 26% YoY to RMB133.7bn (consensus revenue of RMB132.2bn) while operating profit (non-IFRS) was up 26% YoY to RMB38bn (IFRS OP of RMB63bn vs consensus OP of RMB38bn) during the fourth quarter.</p><p>Despite the ongoing regulatory concerns regarding the company’s fintech business, Tencent’s core businesses continued to see strong performance in 2020, which led to 28% YoY increase in revenues for full-year 2020. Tencent’s Value added services segment performed better than the rest of the businesses during 2020.</p>

Tencent Holdings (700 HK) reported its 4Q2020 results on Wednesday (24th March 2021) which saw revenues increasing 26% YoY to RMB133.7bn (consensus revenue of RMB132.2bn) while operating profit (non-IFRS) was up 26% YoY to RMB38bn (IFRS OP of RMB63bn vs consensus OP of RMB38bn) during the fourth quarter.Despite the ongoing regulatory concerns regarding the company’s fintech business, Tencent’s core businesses continued to see strong performance in 2020, which led to 28% YoY increase in revenues for full-year 2020. Tencent’s Value added services segment performed better than the rest of the businesses during 2020.

Tencent 4Q: Solid Performance Across All Businesses Despite Ongoing Regulatory Concerns

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Zhihu IPO: Trading Debut

Zhihu has priced its IPO at $9.50 per ADS which at the low-end of the IPO price range, according to press reports. Despite the recent de-rating of...

Arun George

Zhihu (知乎) IPO Trading - Peers Have Corrected Significantly but Still Has a Modest Upside

Zhihu Technology (ZH US) was said to have raised US$773m at the bottom-end of the IPO price range (including the US$250m concurrent placement)

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Linklogis IPO - Pricey for a Reason

Linklogis, a technology solution provider for supply chain finance in China, is aiming to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. Its investors...

Sumeet Singh

China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone

On 24th Mar 2021, SEC issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. On the back of this, large China ADRs...

Sumeet Singh

Tencent 4Q: Solid Performance Across All Businesses Despite Ongoing Regulatory Concerns

Though it seems inevitable that Tencent could come under regulatory pressures, we believe Tencent may be well prepared to avoid the same level of...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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