Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>  reported 1Q21 results on Thursday (20<sup>th</sup> May) which saw revenues growing 25% YoY to RMB135.3bn (versus consensus revenue of RMB133.8bn) while operating profit (non-IFRS) increased 20% YoY to RMB42.8bn (IFRS OP of RMB56.3bn versus consensus OP of RMB42.8bn) during the quarter.</p><p>Despite the ongoing regulatory concerns regarding the company’s fintech business, past M&amp;A deals and WeChat User data, Tencent’s businesses continued to see strong performance during 1Q. However, Tencent’s core online advertising revenue and its Weixin &amp; WeChat user growth are slowing down.</p>

Tencent (700 HK)  reported 1Q21 results on Thursday (20th May) which saw revenues growing 25% YoY to RMB135.3bn (versus consensus revenue of RMB133.8bn) while operating profit (non-IFRS) increased 20% YoY to RMB42.8bn (IFRS OP of RMB56.3bn versus consensus OP of RMB42.8bn) during the quarter.Despite the ongoing regulatory concerns regarding the company’s fintech business, past M&amp;A deals and WeChat User data, Tencent’s businesses continued to see strong performance during 1Q. However, Tencent’s core online advertising revenue and its Weixin &amp; WeChat user growth are slowing down.

Tencent: Earnings Beat Consensus; Falling User Growth and Game Revenue Growth Concerning

Global TMT analyst with Asia ex-Japan focus.

Mitchell Kim

<ul>
<li>While Tencent’s 25% YoY total revenue growth in 1Q21 was respectable, <strong>extended slow online games revenue growth increases the downside risk for the stock</strong>, in my view.  In 2018, Tencent's share price fell from the peak of HKD470 to nearly HKD250 as game revenue growth fell from 30%+ to single digits. </li>
<li> I flagged that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> will not be able to sustain the 30-40% YoY game revenue growth in my report, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-700-hk-taking-foot-off-the-pedal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49643" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK): Taking Foot Off the Pedal</a>, after Tencent’s 4Q20 results on 25 March 2021. <strong> In 1Q21, Tencent’s total online game revenue (including smartphone revenues in social media) growth decelerated to 15% YoY</strong>, the lowest rate since 3Q19. </li>
<li>
<strong>Games revenue growth remains a key share price driver</strong> because the segment still contributes 64% of the total gross profit (Game business is the majority of VAS segment) even though it only makes up 40% of the total revenues.</li>
<li> <strong>Added to the game revenue slowdown risk, the Fintech restructuring risk is still looming.</strong> In my Tencent report, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-700-hk-fintech-risk-is-lurking" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50512" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK): Fintech Risk Is Lurking</a>, I noted that stricter consumer loan and asset management regulation will adversely impact Tencent shares more than Alibaba because of Tencent’s greater ownership of its fintech business.      </li>
<li>
<strong>The saving grace for Tencent in 1Q21 was fintech and cloud businesses.</strong>  Fintech and business services (incl Cloud) was the largest growth driver in 1Q21.  However, FinTech Service revenue growth benefitted from the comparison with the stay-at-home law impacted 1Q20.  </li>
<li>
<strong>Tencent's 1Q21 results were broadly at par with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17203:1" rel="noopener">NetEase Inc (NTES US)</a> but underperformed e-commerce platforms' results</strong> -- <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</a> -- on revenue, gross profit and operating profit (normalized) growth.  </li>
</ul>


While Tencent’s 25% YoY total revenue growth in 1Q21 was respectable, extended slow online games revenue growth increases the downside risk for the stock, in my view.  In 2018, Tencent's share price fell from the peak of HKD470 to nearly HKD250 as game revenue growth fell from 30%+ to single digits. 
 I flagged that Tencent (700 HK) will not be able to sustain the 30-40% YoY game revenue growth in my report, Tencent (700 HK): Taking Foot Off the Pedal, after Tencent’s 4Q20 results on 25 March 2021.  In 1Q21, Tencent’s total online game revenue (including smartphone revenues in social media) growth decelerated to 15% YoY, the lowest rate since 3Q19. 

Games revenue growth remains a key share price driver because the segment still contributes 64% of the total gross profit (Game business is the majority of VAS segment) even though it only makes up 40% of the total revenues.
 Added to the game revenue slowdown risk, the Fintech restructuring risk is still looming. In my Tencent report, Tencent (700 HK): Fintech Risk Is Lurking, I noted that stricter consumer loan and asset management regulation will adversely impact Tencent shares more than Alibaba because of Tencent’s greater ownership of its fintech business.      

The saving grace for Tencent in 1Q21 was fintech and cloud businesses.  Fintech and business services (incl Cloud) was the largest growth driver in 1Q21.  However, FinTech Service revenue growth benefitted from the comparison with the stay-at-home law impacted 1Q20.  

Tencent's 1Q21 results were broadly at par with NetEase Inc (NTES US) but underperformed e-commerce platforms' results -- Alibaba Group (BABA US), JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US), and Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US) -- on revenue, gross profit and operating profit (normalized) growth.  


Tencent (700 HK): Take a Deep Breath and Reassess: Online Game Growth Is Slowing

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<p><strong><em>*Meh 1Q21 Result:</em></strong> Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] reported 1Q21 total revenues of CNY 135.3 bn - increasing 25% YOY, while non-GAAP operating profit aggregated CNY 42.8 bn - increasing 20% YOY; and</p><p><strong><em>*Capital Raise Likely Coming:</em></strong> For Tencent, WeChat Pay and the broader lending/deposit taking business are likely to be reined-in. At CNY 38.5 bn for full year 2020, FinTech represents a growing 28.8% of revenue – and is a key and growing component of Tencent’s current and future results. No matter what spin that Tencent wants to place on its other businesses, an FHC represents significant downside risks. Earnings will compress, as capital requirements increase.</p>

*Meh 1Q21 Result: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] reported 1Q21 total revenues of CNY 135.3 bn - increasing 25% YOY, while non-GAAP operating profit aggregated CNY 42.8 bn - increasing 20% YOY; and*Capital Raise Likely Coming: For Tencent, WeChat Pay and the broader lending/deposit taking business are likely to be reined-in. At CNY 38.5 bn for full year 2020, FinTech represents a growing 28.8% of revenue – and is a key and growing component of Tencent’s current and future results. No matter what spin that Tencent wants to place on its other businesses, an FHC represents significant downside risks. Earnings will compress, as capital requirements increase.

Tencent Holdings – Awaiting The Big Hit

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>We believe the mobile game growth rate will be back to the level before the pandemic.</li>
<li>WeChat Pay took advantage of AliPay’s poor relation with the government.</li>
<li>WeChat mini-program will be the most promising business.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 19% for the end of 2Q22. Buy.</li>
</ul>


We believe the mobile game growth rate will be back to the level before the pandemic.
WeChat Pay took advantage of AliPay’s poor relation with the government.
WeChat mini-program will be the most promising business.
We set an upside of 19% for the end of 2Q22. Buy.


Tencent (700 HK): Growth Will Be Back to Level Before Pandemic, But Still Healthy, Buy

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> announced its 1Q2021 results which look like a blowout set of numbers with +147% growth in total GAAP revenues with +117% growth in digital bookings for digital entertainment and +250% YoY growth in e-commerce GAAP revenues.</p>
<p>Gross Profit increased a staggering +212% YoY to US$645.4m in 1Q2021 and the company booked a positive EBITDA of US$88.1m versus a (US$69.9m) loss in 1Q2020.</p>
<p>The gross profit margin increased from 28% in 1Q2020 to 36% in 1Q2021, which is a testament to the fact that the company is moving along the path to profitability. Digital entertainment saw higher margins, while-commerce saw falling EBITDA loss per order.</p>
<p>In Digital Entertainment (DE) division continues to see strong growth in its user base with +61% YoY growth in quarterly active users (QAU) to 648.6m but more importantly quarterly paying users saw growth of +12.3% YoY to 79.8m signifying a higher level of monetization on its self-developed game <em>Free Fire.</em></p>
<p>The company continues to successfully expand its gaming business to new geographies, with India being the latest growth engine and players are spending more time on Free Fire and spending more. It continues to add new content and characters to increase the appeal and stickiness of <em>Free Fire</em>. It is also seeing huge response in the eSports arena for <em>Free Fire.</em></p>
<p>Shopee ranked number one in the shopping category by monthly active users and time spent in app in 1Q2021 for both South East Asia and Taiwan, according to App Annie. E-commerce continues to show supercharged growth and especially in the core market of Indonesia.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>'s move into digital payments in South -East Asia under SeaMoney and ShopeePay in Indonesia continues to see strong momentum.  The mobile wallet total payment volume saw total payment volume triple in 1Q2021 to US$3.4bn. </p>
<p>The company is also expanding the offline use-cases for ShopeePay most recently extending use to Indomaret in Indonesia, the largest mini-market operator in the country.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>'s move into food delivery through ShopeeFood and evidence suggests that it has already had a strong reception to its launch in Jakarta, with growth similar to that in other categories.</p>
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<p>This latest set of results provides further proof of the success of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> growth model which generates huge EBITDA from gaming and reinvests that money into growing the company's e-commerce and digital finance businesses, whilst maintaining the investment momentum into the gaming cash cow, buy pushing out into new geographies such as India.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> continues to standout as the best way to play the explosive growth in e-commerce in South East Asia, funded by the popularity of its self developed game <em>Free Fire </em>and its gaming business, together with its move into digital payments a third leg to future growth.</p>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> valuations are higher than its listed peers on 13x and 9x EV/Sales for FY21E and FY22E respectively but it is growing at more than twice the pace in terms of sales to justify this. The market is also paying a premium for its unique financing plus its market leadership and strong track record on execution, with 11 consecutive quarters of triple-digit growth.</section>
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Sea Ltd (SE US) announced its 1Q2021 results which look like a blowout set of numbers with +147% growth in total GAAP revenues with +117% growth in digital bookings for digital entertainment and +250% YoY growth in e-commerce GAAP revenues.
Gross Profit increased a staggering +212% YoY to US$645.4m in 1Q2021 and the company booked a positive EBITDA of US$88.1m versus a (US$69.9m) loss in 1Q2020.
The gross profit margin increased from 28% in 1Q2020 to 36% in 1Q2021, which is a testament to the fact that the company is moving along the path to profitability. Digital entertainment saw higher margins, while-commerce saw falling EBITDA loss per order.
In Digital Entertainment (DE) division continues to see strong growth in its user base with +61% YoY growth in quarterly active users (QAU) to 648.6m but more importantly quarterly paying users saw growth of +12.3% YoY to 79.8m signifying a higher level of monetization on its self-developed game Free Fire.
The company continues to successfully expand its gaming business to new geographies, with India being the latest growth engine and players are spending more time on Free Fire and spending more. It continues to add new content and characters to increase the appeal and stickiness of Free Fire. It is also seeing huge response in the eSports arena for Free Fire.
Shopee ranked number one in the shopping category by monthly active users and time spent in app in 1Q2021 for both South East Asia and Taiwan, according to App Annie. E-commerce continues to show supercharged growth and especially in the core market of Indonesia.
Sea Ltd (SE US)'s move into digital payments in South -East Asia under SeaMoney and ShopeePay in Indonesia continues to see strong momentum.  The mobile wallet total payment volume saw total payment volume triple in 1Q2021 to US$3.4bn. 
The company is also expanding the offline use-cases for ShopeePay most recently extending use to Indomaret in Indonesia, the largest mini-market operator in the country.

Sea Ltd (SE US)'s move into food delivery through ShopeeFood and evidence suggests that it has already had a strong reception to its launch in Jakarta, with growth similar to that in other categories.

This latest set of results provides further proof of the success of the Sea Ltd (SE US) growth model which generates huge EBITDA from gaming and reinvests that money into growing the company's e-commerce and digital finance businesses, whilst maintaining the investment momentum into the gaming cash cow, buy pushing out into new geographies such as India.



Sea Ltd (SE US) continues to standout as the best way to play the explosive growth in e-commerce in South East Asia, funded by the popularity of its self developed game Free Fire and its gaming business, together with its move into digital payments a third leg to future growth.

Sea Ltd (SE US) valuations are higher than its listed peers on 13x and 9x EV/Sales for FY21E and FY22E respectively but it is growing at more than twice the pace in terms of sales to justify this. The market is also paying a premium for its unique financing plus its market leadership and strong track record on execution, with 11 consecutive quarters of triple-digit growth.

















China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Tencent: Earnings Beat Consensus; Falling User Growth and Game Revenue Growth Concerning

Tencent’s 1Q21 revenues and profits saw strong growth, however, we are concerned about the slow down in online games revenue growth as the segment...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tencent (700 HK): Take a Deep Breath and Reassess: Online Game Growth Is Slowing

Tencent's online game revenue growth slowed to 15% YoY. The stock nearly halved in 2018 when the growth rate fell to single digits. Can it happen...

Mitchell Kim

Tencent Holdings – Awaiting The Big Hit

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Tencent] reported 1Q21 YOY total revenue growth of 25%, while non-GAAP operating profit increased just 20%. An FHC suggests...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent (700 HK): Growth Will Be Back to Level Before Pandemic, But Still Healthy, Buy

We believe the mobile game growth will be back to the level before the pandemic. WeChat Pay took advantage of AliPay’s poor relation with the govt....

Ming Lu

Sea Ltd - Supercharged

Sea Ltd (SE US) is the best way to proxy for the explosive growth in e-commerce in South East Asia, funded by its gaming revenue, with its move...

Angus Mackintosh

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