Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Bilibili's &lt;Three Kingdom: MDTX&gt; continues to show strong monetization performance, Based on our data tracking, we are raising the annual grossing estimate by 25% to approximately RMB 5.5 billion.</li>
<li>NetEase's &lt;Naraka Mobile&gt; has surpassed 40 million pre-registrations, making it the most pre-registered game in NetEase's history. We are raising the annual grossing estimate by 20% to RMB 12 billion.</li>
<li>Tencent's &lt;FGS&gt; has seen a continuous rise in popularity following the release of the new mode. We are raising the annual grossing estimate by 10% to RMB 13 billion.</li>
</ul>


Bilibili's &lt;Three Kingdom: MDTX&gt; continues to show strong monetization performance, Based on our data tracking, we are raising the annual grossing estimate by 25% to approximately RMB 5.5 billion.
NetEase's &lt;Naraka Mobile&gt; has surpassed 40 million pre-registrations, making it the most pre-registered game in NetEase's history. We are raising the annual grossing estimate by 20% to RMB 12 billion.
Tencent's &lt;FGS&gt; has seen a continuous rise in popularity following the release of the new mode. We are raising the annual grossing estimate by 10% to RMB 13 billion.


Online Game Monitor: June 16-July 1, 2024

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>JD US/PDD US /BABA US: JD launches new low-priced initiative to target lower-tier market (+/-/-)</li>
<li>BABA US/BILI US/BIDU US/700HK: Bilibili and Xiaohongshu inaccessible after 38-minute cloud crash (-/-/+/+)</li>
<li>700 HK: Tencent announces upgraded LLM training system . (+)</li>
</ul>


JD US/PDD US /BABA US: JD launches new low-priced initiative to target lower-tier market (+/-/-)
BABA US/BILI US/BIDU US/700HK: Bilibili and Xiaohongshu inaccessible after 38-minute cloud crash (-/-/+/+)
700 HK: Tencent announces upgraded LLM training system . (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD/PDD/BABA/BILI/BIDU/700HK/3888HK/1024HK/NTES /3690HK/TCOM/SE/CPNG/BZ

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Chenqi Technology Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chenqi-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40058:1" rel="noopener">Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$174m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.</li>
<li>Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance and PHIP updates. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise up to US$174m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent.
In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance and PHIP updates. In this note, we undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.


Chenqi Technology IPO - Smallest in Scale, Sentiment Might Not Be the Best

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> will raise KRW 435bn (US$315m) in its IPO, valuing the company at KRW 3,482bn (US$2.52bn). Listing is expected later this month.</li>
<li>Competition for the shares has been fierce with institutional investors indicating demand for 226x the number of shares on offer at prices higher than the top end of the range.</li>
<li>Inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> looks likely in June 2025, while inclusion in global indices is likely in December. But there could be some passive inflows in September.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) will raise KRW 435bn (US$315m) in its IPO, valuing the company at KRW 3,482bn (US$2.52bn). Listing is expected later this month.
Competition for the shares has been fierce with institutional investors indicating demand for 226x the number of shares on offer at prices higher than the top end of the range.
Inclusion in the KOSPI 200 looks likely in June 2025, while inclusion in global indices is likely in December. But there could be some passive inflows in September.


Shift Up IPO: Details, Bookbuilding & Index Inclusion

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> are potential deletions while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> are potential adds.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$950m. Official capping will be based off the close of trading on 3 September.</li>
<li>There will be 1-2x ADV to buy on the adds and over 2x ADV to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics</a>. The impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime</a> is lower given the recent surge in volume.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (20 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) are potential deletions while PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK) and New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) are potential adds.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$950m. Official capping will be based off the close of trading on 3 September.
There will be 1-2x ADV to buy on the adds and over 2x ADV to sell in JD Logistics. The impact on SenseTime is lower given the recent surge in volume.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Online Game Monitor: June 16-July 1, 2024

Top Chinese gaming companies Bilibili, NetEase, and Tencent are seeing strong monetization performance, with estimates raised for annual grossing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD/PDD/BABA/BILI/BIDU/700HK/3888HK/1024HK/NTES /3690HK/TCOM/SE/CPNG/BZ

JD launches new low-priced initiative to target lower-tier market, Bilibili and Xiaohongshu experience cloud crash, Tencent announces upgraded LLM...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Chenqi Technology IPO - Smallest in Scale, Sentiment Might Not Be the Best

Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise up to US$174m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.

Ethan Aw

Shift Up IPO: Details, Bookbuilding & Index Inclusion

Shift Up will raise US$315m in its IPO, valuing the company at US$2.52bn. Inclusion in the KOSPI200 is likely in June25 while inclusion in global...

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

We forecast two changes in September with a 1-way turnover of 1.8% resulting in a 1-way trade of HK$950m. There will be 1-2 days of ADV to trade on...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Online Game Monitor: June 16-July 1, 2024

​Top Chinese gaming companies Bilibili, NetEase, and Tencent are seeing strong monetization performance, with estimates raised for annual grossing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD/PDD/BABA/BILI/BIDU/700HK/3888HK/1024HK/NTES /3690HK/TCOM/SE/CPNG/BZ

​JD launches new low-priced initiative to target lower-tier market, Bilibili and Xiaohongshu experience cloud crash, Tencent announces upgraded LLM...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Chenqi Technology IPO - Smallest in Scale, Sentiment Might Not Be the Best

Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise up to US$174m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.

Ethan Aw

Shift Up IPO: Details, Bookbuilding & Index Inclusion

Shift Up will raise US$315m in its IPO, valuing the company at US$2.52bn. Inclusion in the KOSPI200 is likely in June25 while inclusion in global...

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

We forecast two changes in September with a 1-way turnover of 1.8% resulting in a 1-way trade of HK$950m. There will be 1-2 days of ADV to trade on...

Brian Freitas

Top Chinese gaming companies Bilibili, NetEase, and Tencent are seeing strong monetization performance, with estimates raised for annual grossing...

JD launches new low-priced initiative to target lower-tier market, Bilibili and Xiaohongshu experience cloud crash, Tencent announces upgraded LLM...