Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tencent has received regulatory approval to resume regular updates in the app stores. Tencent was asked to get approval for all of its new apps and updates from the government.</li>
<li>While this suggests that the regulatory pressure may be easing, Tencent has got into more troubles with a young star worker committing suicide at work.</li>
<li>As we highlighted in our previous insights, the value of Tencent’s investments in other entities is deteriorating with more regulatory pressures. KE Holdings has been targeted by short sellers.</li>
</ul>


Tencent has received regulatory approval to resume regular updates in the app stores. Tencent was asked to get approval for all of its new apps and updates from the government.
While this suggests that the regulatory pressure may be easing, Tencent has got into more troubles with a young star worker committing suicide at work.
As we highlighted in our previous insights, the value of Tencent’s investments in other entities is deteriorating with more regulatory pressures. KE Holdings has been targeted by short sellers.


Tencent Receives Approval for App Updates but Faces New Hurdles

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Tencent short bet from 510 is panning out with a target of 410, representing a major inflection support that if broken would induce additional carnage toward 375/330. </li>
<li>HK tech index 5600 support shows counter synergy to watch closely into a late December risk off cycle. Below 550 would be very bearish.</li>
<li>Our cycle work calls for the global risk cycle to peak in mid-December for fallout into late December, bounce and then resume weakness into late January.</li>
</ul>


Tencent short bet from 510 is panning out with a target of 410, representing a major inflection support that if broken would induce additional carnage toward 375/330. 
HK tech index 5600 support shows counter synergy to watch closely into a late December risk off cycle. Below 550 would be very bearish.
Our cycle work calls for the global risk cycle to peak in mid-December for fallout into late December, bounce and then resume weakness into late January.


Tencent Short to Pressure Test 410 Pivot Target

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In its Investor Day, Alibaba Group announced its plans to focus on overseas e-commerce, amongst other initiatives. Alibaba's SEA unit, Lazada, is central to this plan.</li>
<li>The initiatives come amid investor concerns about Alibaba's long term growth prospects and competition, as well as regulatory and macroeconomic headwinds in its home market.</li>
<li>In this Insight, we examine a blue sky scenario for the incremental contribution of Alibaba's planned SEA expansion to Alibaba's overall performance and its impact on valuation. </li>
</ul>


In its Investor Day, Alibaba Group announced its plans to focus on overseas e-commerce, amongst other initiatives. Alibaba's SEA unit, Lazada, is central to this plan.
The initiatives come amid investor concerns about Alibaba's long term growth prospects and competition, as well as regulatory and macroeconomic headwinds in its home market.
In this Insight, we examine a blue sky scenario for the incremental contribution of Alibaba's planned SEA expansion to Alibaba's overall performance and its impact on valuation. 


Alibaba (BABA US) Investor Day Takeaways - The SEA Blue Sky

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>
Muddy Waters and Beike: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] must deal with an allegation of “significant” fraud by short seller from Muddy Waters at a large investment: KE Holdings (BEKE.US) [Beike];</li>
<li>
Value At Risk: Tencent owns 11% of Beike’s outstanding shares, having a market value of USD 1.8 bn; and</li>
<li>
Fundamental and Regulatory Challenges Remain:Tencent still has numerous challenges: weaker revenues in its core business, mainland China’s clampdown on gaming/internet companies, and the reining-in of Fintech businesses.</li>
</ul>



Muddy Waters and Beike: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] must deal with an allegation of “significant” fraud by short seller from Muddy Waters at a large investment: KE Holdings (BEKE.US) [Beike];

Value At Risk: Tencent owns 11% of Beike’s outstanding shares, having a market value of USD 1.8 bn; and

Fundamental and Regulatory Challenges Remain:Tencent still has numerous challenges: weaker revenues in its core business, mainland China’s clampdown on gaming/internet companies, and the reining-in of Fintech businesses.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine as of record day of December 17th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, Meituan and Tsingtao, as well as outflows from Wuxi Biologics, Xiaomi, and Great Wall Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine as of record day of December 17th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, Meituan and Tsingtao, as well as outflows from Wuxi Biologics, Xiaomi, and Great Wall Motor.


Hong Kong Connect Flows: Chinese Buying Tsingtao Brewery

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Tencent Receives Approval for App Updates but Faces New Hurdles

Tencent has received regulatory approval to resume regular updates in the app stores. However, the company is now facing new hurdles with an...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tencent Short to Pressure Test 410 Pivot Target

Tencent short bet from 510 is panning out with a target of 410, representing a major inflection support that if broken would induce additional...

Thomas Schroeder

Alibaba (BABA US) Investor Day Takeaways - The SEA Blue Sky

Alibaba announced plans to focus on SEA e-commerce amid growth concerns. We examine a blue sky scenario for the planned expansion and associated...

Jason Yap, CFA

Tencent Holdings – Adding To Its Woes

TENCENT: Tencent must now deal with a “significant” fraud allegation at its investment, Beike. Tencent owns 11% of Beike’s outstanding shares,...

Thomas J. Monaco

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Chinese Buying Tsingtao Brewery

We highlight Hong Kong Connect inflows into Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Tsingtao Brewery (168 HK), and outflows from Wuxi Biologics (2269...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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