Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Stock is up over 80% from October lows and almost 10% in 2023 already</li>
<li>Sentiment over fundamentals appears to be driving the rally and stock is back in the worlds top 10 most valuable companies</li>
<li>We consider some option strategies to roll profits and reduce exposure</li>
</ul>


Stock is up over 80% from October lows and almost 10% in 2023 already
Sentiment over fundamentals appears to be driving the rally and stock is back in the worlds top 10 most valuable companies
We consider some option strategies to roll profits and reduce exposure


EQD | Tencent (700 HK): Use Derivatives to Protect Recent Gains

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our Tencent 4Q22’s rev. is in line, while non-IFRS net income would beat cons. by 5.2%. We estimate that top and bottom line will grow 13%/14% YoY in 2023.</li>
<li>We suggest major business lines see turning points in 4Q22, supported by rebound of Peacekeeper Elite’s gross billings, approval of new game codes, monetization of Wechat Video Account, etc.</li>
<li>Tencent is one of our top picks. Video Account, global game publishing, and margin beat are three major catalysts. Our TP HK$ 407 implies 26.1X PE in 2023.</li>
</ul>


Our Tencent 4Q22’s rev. is in line, while non-IFRS net income would beat cons. by 5.2%. We estimate that top and bottom line will grow 13%/14% YoY in 2023.
We suggest major business lines see turning points in 4Q22, supported by rebound of Peacekeeper Elite’s gross billings, approval of new game codes, monetization of Wechat Video Account, etc.
Tencent is one of our top picks. Video Account, global game publishing, and margin beat are three major catalysts. Our TP HK$ 407 implies 26.1X PE in 2023.


Tencent(700.HK) 4Q22 Preview:Turning Points Are Emerging

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 23rd. </li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Li Ning, Country Garden, HKEX, JD.com, Longfor. </li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 23rd. 
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Li Ning, Country Garden, HKEX, JD.com, Longfor. 


HK Short Interest Weekly: Li Ning, Country Garden, HKEX, JD.com, Longfor

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We update our China online advertising model and forecast that the industry will reach RMB 1,167 bn with 9.3% YoY in 2023, rebounding from 2.7% YoY in 2022.</li>
<li>Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven faster-than-expected recoveries will be three key themes that could generate investment opportunities in 2023.</li>
<li>We recommend BUY Tencent, BABA, PDD, and Meituan within the sector.</li>
</ul>


We update our China online advertising model and forecast that the industry will reach RMB 1,167 bn with 9.3% YoY in 2023, rebounding from 2.7% YoY in 2022.
Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven faster-than-expected recoveries will be three key themes that could generate investment opportunities in 2023.
We recommend BUY Tencent, BABA, PDD, and Meituan within the sector.


China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Meituan, HKEX, China Unicom, Shenzhou Intl, Sensetime, and outflows from Xiaomi, HSBC, Anta Sports, China Pacific.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Meituan, HKEX, China Unicom, Shenzhou Intl, Sensetime, and outflows from Xiaomi, HSBC, Anta Sports, China Pacific.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: 12 Months of Inflows

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

EQD | Tencent (700 HK): Use Derivatives to Protect Recent Gains

We consider the recent strength in Tencent stock and drivers behind the move. We analyse the stock from a volatility viewpoint and consider some...

Simon Harris

Tencent(700.HK) 4Q22 Preview:Turning Points Are Emerging

We suggest that several of Tencent’s major business lines start to see turning points in 4Q22. Our Tencent 4Q22’s non-IFRS net income would beat...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Short Interest Weekly: Li Ning, Country Garden, HKEX, JD.com, Longfor

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 23rd and highlight short interest changes in Li Ning, Country Garden,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

We update our China online advertising model and conclude that Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven recoveries...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: 12 Months of Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for December and highlight flows for Meituan, HKEX, China Unicom, Shenzhou Intl, Sensetime, Xiaomi, HSBC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)