Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Strong Results, But Managed: HDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN) [HDFCB] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 76.5 bn, which increased INR 12.5 bn (16.6%) linked quarter. On a core operating basis, results improved INR 11.5 bn (17.7%) to INR 76.5 bn over the period. Other income drove the results outperformance;*Credit Still Breaking Down Ex-Supreme Court Ruling: The Supreme Court of India, in a public interest litigation directed that accounts which were not declared NPL through August 31, 2020 shall not be declared as such until further notice. On an apples-to-apples basis, we find that HDFCB’s stated gross NPLs increased 18.1% linked quarter. Inclusive of NCOs of INR 34 bn, we calculate that net new NPLs actually increased INR 65 bn or 151% on an annualized basis; and*Reserve Cover Needs Improvement: At this time, provisions barely cover NCOs – down from 2.4x in FY 3Q21. We would be more comfortable if HDFCB was a bit more aggressive with its provisions – especially during periods when volatile sources of fee revenues give HDFCB a gift to build reserves. By our calculation, reserves are currently short by nearly INR 328 bn or over a year of core operating results based on FY 3Q21 results.

*Strong Results, But Managed: HDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN) [HDFCB] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 76.5 bn, which increased INR 12.5 bn (16.6%) linked quarter. On a core operating basis, results improved INR 11.5 bn (17.7%) to INR 76.5 bn over the period. Other income drove the results outperformance;*Credit Still Breaking Down Ex-Supreme Court Ruling: The Supreme Court of India, in a public interest litigation directed that accounts which were not declared NPL through August 31, 2020 shall not be declared as such until further notice. On an apples-to-apples basis, we find that HDFCB’s stated gross NPLs increased 18.1% linked quarter. Inclusive of NCOs of INR 34 bn, we calculate that net new NPLs actually increased INR 65 bn or 151% on an annualized basis; and*Reserve Cover Needs Improvement: At this time, provisions barely cover NCOs – down from 2.4x in FY 3Q21. We would be more comfortable if HDFCB was a bit more aggressive with its provisions – especially during periods when volatile sources of fee revenues give HDFCB a gift to build reserves. By our calculation, reserves are currently short by nearly INR 328 bn or over a year of core operating results based on FY 3Q21 results.   

HDFC Bank – Credit Remains A Serious Challenge

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Bracing For Even Tougher Times: According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India’s financial sector needs to prepare for even more challenging times given the continued risk of credit deterioration, which remains heightened due to this unrelenting pandemic; and*Open Your Wallets, Indian Financials Need Money: Given the economic uncertainty posed by COVID-19, credit quality in the Indian financial system is likely to present continued economic challenges in 2021. If the RBI is correct, and we believe that it is – although its forecasts appear quite light, FY 2022 will see continued losses and massive levels of capital raised.

*Bracing For Even Tougher Times: According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India’s financial sector needs to prepare for even more challenging times given the continued risk of credit deterioration, which remains heightened due to this unrelenting pandemic; and*Open Your Wallets, Indian Financials Need Money: Given the economic uncertainty posed by COVID-19, credit quality in the Indian financial system is likely to present continued economic challenges in 2021. If the RBI is correct, and we believe that it is – although its forecasts appear quite light, FY 2022 will see continued losses and massive levels of capital raised.   

Reserve Bank of India – Continued Bank Waterboarding

*RBI Fines Bajaj: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fined Bajaj Finance (BAF.IN) [Bajaj] INR 25 mn for failing to ensure that its debt recovery agents were following the appropriate guidelines; and*Credit Costs Pressured: While the Bajaj penalty is not material, the more intense level of regulatory scrutiny could negatively impact near-term retail loan collection efficiency and raise concerns over the cost of risk and the revival of loan growth. This recent action on recovery methods on top of already high bounce rates could potentially lead to a slowdown in the collection efficiencies and higher loss provisions.

*RBI Fines Bajaj: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fined Bajaj Finance (BAF.IN) [Bajaj] INR 25 mn for failing to ensure that its debt recovery agents were following the appropriate guidelines; and*Credit Costs Pressured: While the Bajaj penalty is not material, the more intense level of regulatory scrutiny could negatively impact near-term retail loan collection efficiency and raise concerns over the cost of risk and the revival of loan growth. This recent action on recovery methods on top of already high bounce rates could potentially lead to a slowdown in the collection efficiencies and higher loss provisions. 

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Nearly a year after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a><a href="https://hemindrahazari.com/2020/01/09/axis-bank-hollowing-out-the-crucial-role-of-the-cro/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">truncated</a> the responsibilities of its Chief Risk Officer (CRO) by transferring corporate credit risk to the role of the newly created Chief Credit Officer (CCO) who reported only to the CEO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) </a>has <a href="https://archives.nseindia.com/corporate/HDFCBANK_14122020145644_SEIntimationCRO.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">decided</a>  to go a step further. It has transferred corporate and retail credit risk to a similarly newly created role of a CCO (no business targets), who will report only to the CEO, and transferred the earlier CRO to the CCO post. HDFC Bank also <a href="https://twitter.com/MDahariya/status/1341597883225825285?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shifted</a> individuals in the CRO handling credit risk to the CCO, and made the latter accountable for credit decisions.  The rationale provided by HDFC Bank is that in its future credit expansion it wants greater underwriting focus and accountability and therefore wants an experienced individual to accept responsibility for the CCO post who will report to the CEO.In Indian banks credit risk is the major risk and in HDFC Bank credit risk assets constitute 83% of total risk weighted assets. In this organisational restructuring, the CRO will only be left with non-credit risk management and secondary credit risk-related functions like stress testing the credit portfolio, concentration risk and determining limits (such as sector, group, company, geography).  For some inexplicable reason, even the <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/sameer-ratolikar-13b1725/?originalSubdomain=in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chief Information Risk Officer</a>  has been made to report to the CCO. Therefore the CRO’s role in HDFC Bank has been drastically downsized.The new CRO at HDFC Bank maintains his prior designation of senior executive vice-president, while the earlier CRO had the designation of group head. This change has downgraded the position of the CRO within the senior management. As HDFC Bank’s own disclosures reveal, while the earlier CRO’s experience, age, and remuneration was similar to the others in the senior management, the new CRO is the junior-most in all these parameters.  For most practical purposes, the erstwhile CRO post has been re-named “CCO”, with one crucial difference: he does not report to the Board’s Risk Management Committee, but only to the CEO. It appears that creating the new designation, and maintaining a stripped-down CRO post as well, merely serves to confuse the public and distract from the nature of this disturbing change.The Basle Committee and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have been trying to enhance the role of the CRO (<a href="https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d328.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_CircularIndexDisplay.aspx?Id=10948" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>) and insulate the CRO from business and even pressure from the CEO, by making the post report to the risk management committee of the board with a dotted line reporting to the CEO. It is perplexing that, at the same time, two prominent private sector banks in India, with full support of their boards of directors, are undermining the foundations of the CRO by taking away (in Axis Bank only corporate credit risk) the core credit risk function.

Nearly a year after Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)truncated the responsibilities of its Chief Risk Officer (CRO) by transferring corporate credit risk to the role of the newly created Chief Credit Officer (CCO) who reported only to the CEO, HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has decided  to go a step further. It has transferred corporate and retail credit risk to a similarly newly created role of a CCO (no business targets), who will report only to the CEO, and transferred the earlier CRO to the CCO post. HDFC Bank also shifted individuals in the CRO handling credit risk to the CCO, and made the latter accountable for credit decisions.  The rationale provided by HDFC Bank is that in its future credit expansion it wants greater underwriting focus and accountability and therefore wants an experienced individual to accept responsibility for the CCO post who will report to the CEO.In Indian banks credit risk is the major risk and in HDFC Bank credit risk assets constitute 83% of total risk weighted assets. In this organisational restructuring, the CRO will only be left with non-credit risk management and secondary credit risk-related functions like stress testing the credit portfolio, concentration risk and determining limits (such as sector, group, company, geography).  For some inexplicable reason, even the Chief Information Risk Officer  has been made to report to the CCO. Therefore the CRO’s role in HDFC Bank has been drastically downsized.The new CRO at HDFC Bank maintains his prior designation of senior executive vice-president, while the earlier CRO had the designation of group head. This change has downgraded the position of the CRO within the senior management. As HDFC Bank’s own disclosures reveal, while the earlier CRO’s experience, age, and remuneration was similar to the others in the senior management, the new CRO is the junior-most in all these parameters.  For most practical purposes, the erstwhile CRO post has been re-named “CCO”, with one crucial difference: he does not report to the Board’s Risk Management Committee, but only to the CEO. It appears that creating the new designation, and maintaining a stripped-down CRO post as well, merely serves to confuse the public and distract from the nature of this disturbing change.The Basle Committee and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have been trying to enhance the role of the CRO (here and here) and insulate the CRO from business and even pressure from the CEO, by making the post report to the risk management committee of the board with a dotted line reporting to the CEO. It is perplexing that, at the same time, two prominent private sector banks in India, with full support of their boards of directors, are undermining the foundations of the CRO by taking away (in Axis Bank only corporate credit risk) the core credit risk function.  

HDFC Bank: Honey, I Shrunk the Chief Risk Officer

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

We are no longer recommending an overweight to China (MSCI China) due to recent RS deterioration. Our favorite countries remain Taiwan (TAIEX) and India (SENSEX), while Brazil (Bovespa) and South Korea (KOSPI) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure. MSCI EM Technology and Materials are our top two Sector overweights. Additionally, the EM Health Care Sector shows bullish price and RS inflections, making it a timely Sector to add exposure to at current levels.

We are no longer recommending an overweight to China (MSCI China) due to recent RS deterioration. Our favorite countries remain Taiwan (TAIEX) and India (SENSEX), while Brazil (Bovespa) and South Korea (KOSPI) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure. MSCI EM Technology and Materials are our top two Sector overweights. Additionally, the EM Health Care Sector shows bullish price and RS inflections, making it a timely Sector to add exposure to at current levels.

Overweight EM Vs. EAFE; Dollar Weakness Continues

India

Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. HDFC provides housing finance company. The Company provides wide range of housing loans, loan for home improvement, extensions, top ups, and non housing loans and loans for non resident Indian (NRI). HDFC serves customers in India, kuwait, Singapore, Oman, UAE, and the United Kingdom.

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HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)

HDFC Bank – Credit Remains A Serious Challenge

HDFC BANK: HDFCB reported FY 3Q21 results increased 16.6% linked quarter. Net new NPLs increased 151% annualized, and reserves are currently short...

Thomas J. Monaco

Reserve Bank of India – Continued Bank Waterboarding

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA: India’s financial sector needs to prepare for even more challenging times. If the RBI is correct, FY 2022 will see continued...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bajaj Finance – Smack

BAJAJ FINANCE: RBI fined Bajaj Finance INR 25 mn for failing to ensure that its debt recovery agents were following the appropriate guidelines....

Thomas J. Monaco

HDFC Bank: Honey, I Shrunk the Chief Risk Officer

HDFC Bank with full support of its boards of directors, has undermined the foundations of the Chief Risk Officer by taking away the core credit...

Hemindra Hazari

Overweight EM Vs. EAFE; Dollar Weakness Continues

Our favorite countries remain Taiwan (TAIEX) and India (SENSEX), while Brazil (Bovespa) and South Korea (KOSPI) display improving price and RS...

Vermilion Research

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