Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities ended lower in a volatile week, pressured by global tech headwinds despite a strong Friday rally: Nikkei: -2.6% | TPX -1.2% | JPY 156 (+¥1.03) | 10Y 2.02%</li>
<li>Japan Steel Works (-15%), Fujikura (-14%), and Yaskawa (-13%) shares fell sharply this week on AI sentiment cooling and valuation worries; long-term themes in nuclear/defence, and AI/robotics remain intact.</li>
<li>Next week, thinned holiday trading expected; Friday's Tokyo CPI, unemployment, and retail sales data to test BoJ's post-rate-hike confidence.</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities ended lower in a volatile week, pressured by global tech headwinds despite a strong Friday rally: Nikkei: -2.6% | TPX -1.2% | JPY 156 (+¥1.03) | 10Y 2.02%
Japan Steel Works (-15%), Fujikura (-14%), and Yaskawa (-13%) shares fell sharply this week on AI sentiment cooling and valuation worries; long-term themes in nuclear/defence, and AI/robotics remain intact.
Next week, thinned holiday trading expected; Friday's Tokyo CPI, unemployment, and retail sales data to test BoJ's post-rate-hike confidence.


Japan Strategy Weekly | BoJ Hikes to 0.75% Amid Tech Headwinds; Nikkei -2.6%

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The outlook for factory automation is improving with inventory clearance, the upturn in the semiconductor industry and an AI-enhanced response to the labor shortage.</li>
<li>Yaskawa's margins should continue to rise with renewed growth in Robotics, efficiency gains and an upgraded product line. </li>
<li>Valuation stretched at 30x EPS guidance for FY Feb-25, but current weakness looks like a long term buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


The outlook for factory automation is improving with inventory clearance, the upturn in the semiconductor industry and an AI-enhanced response to the labor shortage.
Yaskawa's margins should continue to rise with renewed growth in Robotics, efficiency gains and an upgraded product line. 
Valuation stretched at 30x EPS guidance for FY Feb-25, but current weakness looks like a long term buying opportunity.


Yaskawa (6506 JP): Start of a New Factory Automation Growth Cycle

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Doosan Robotics  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-robotics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36816:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Robotics (DOOSANROBO KS)</a> is looking to raise up to US$314m in its Korean IPO. </li>
<li>Doosan Robotics (DR) manufactures and sells collaborative robots (Cobots). The firm’s product portfolio primarily includes different series of robot arms as well as its coffee module. </li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuation.</li>
</ul>



Doosan Robotics (DOOSANROBO KS) is looking to raise up to US$314m in its Korean IPO. 
Doosan Robotics (DR) manufactures and sells collaborative robots (Cobots). The firm’s product portfolio primarily includes different series of robot arms as well as its coffee module. 
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuation.


Doosan Robotics IPO - Thoughts on Valuation - A Punt at Best, a Crash at Worst

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday, after market close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> finally issued a progress update on the MBK preconditional tender offer. The update, while mixed, should calm nerves. </li>
<li>The positive read-across is a pathway to regulatory approvals, the Homeplus saga has not derailed the offer, and the likely breach of the long-stop date is not a termination event.</li>
<li>The negative read-across is the lack of a revised tender start timeline, an unexplained delay in securing most regulatory approvals and ongoing uncertainty on the long-stop date.</li>
</ul>


On Friday, after market close, Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) finally issued a progress update on the MBK preconditional tender offer. The update, while mixed, should calm nerves. 
The positive read-across is a pathway to regulatory approvals, the Homeplus saga has not derailed the offer, and the likely breach of the long-stop date is not a termination event.
The negative read-across is the lack of a revised tender start timeline, an unexplained delay in securing most regulatory approvals and ongoing uncertainty on the long-stop date.


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Progress Update While Mixed, Should Calm Nerves

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>’s pre-conditional tender offer from MBK Partners is at JPY11,751 per share. The gross spread has increased to 9.9% due to several concerns.</li>
<li>The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the precondition, the fallout from the Homeplus saga and breaching the long stop date (16 January 2026).</li>
<li>While these concerns have merit, there are mitigating factors. The risk/reward is favourable as the upside (9.9% spread) exceeds the downside (6.3% to my estimated deal break price). </li>
</ul>



Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)’s pre-conditional tender offer from MBK Partners is at JPY11,751 per share. The gross spread has increased to 9.9% due to several concerns.
The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the precondition, the fallout from the Homeplus saga and breaching the long stop date (16 January 2026).
While these concerns have merit, there are mitigating factors. The risk/reward is favourable as the upside (9.9% spread) exceeds the downside (6.3% to my estimated deal break price). 


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Japan

YASKAWA Electric Corporation manufactures and markets servomotors, controllers, inverters, and industrial robots.  The Company's products include spindle controllers, computerized numerical control (CNC) systems, and system engineering.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP)

Japan Strategy Weekly | BoJ Hikes to 0.75% Amid Tech Headwinds; Nikkei -2.6%

Japanese equities fell due to global tech headwinds, with Japan Steel Works, Fujikura, and Yaskawa shares dropping sharply. BoJ hiked rates

Mark Chadwick

Yaskawa (6506 JP): Start of a New Factory Automation Growth Cycle

Long-term buy with share price down 10% in the past month as orders bottom out. Robotics looking up with inventory cleared and need for automation...

Scott Foster

Doosan Robotics IPO - Thoughts on Valuation - A Punt at Best, a Crash at Worst

Doosan Robotics (DOOSANROBO KS) is looking to raise up to US$314m in its Korean IPO. comparison. In this note, we talk about valuation.

Ethan Aw

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Progress Update While Mixed, Should Calm Nerves

While the update is arguably mixed as it lends support to both the bulls and bears, it is positively skewed, which should calm nerves and narrow...

Arun George

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

The wide gross spread reflects three concerns. While these concerns have merit, there are mitigating factors. The risk/reward is favourable.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Strategy Weekly | BoJ Hikes to 0.75% Amid Tech Headwinds; Nikkei -2.6%

​Japanese equities fell due to global tech headwinds, with Japan Steel Works, Fujikura, and Yaskawa shares dropping sharply. BoJ hiked rates

Mark Chadwick

Yaskawa (6506 JP): Start of a New Factory Automation Growth Cycle

Long-term buy with share price down 10% in the past month as orders bottom out. Robotics looking up with inventory cleared and need for automation...

Scott Foster

Doosan Robotics IPO - Thoughts on Valuation - A Punt at Best, a Crash at Worst

Doosan Robotics (DOOSANROBO KS) is looking to raise up to US$314m in its Korean IPO. comparison. In this note, we talk about valuation.

Ethan Aw

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Progress Update While Mixed, Should Calm Nerves

While the update is arguably mixed as it lends support to both the bulls and bears, it is positively skewed, which should calm nerves and narrow...

Arun George

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

The wide gross spread reflects three concerns. While these concerns have merit, there are mitigating factors. The risk/reward is favourable.

Arun George

Japanese equities fell due to global tech headwinds, with Japan Steel Works, Fujikura, and Yaskawa shares dropping sharply. BoJ hiked rates