Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Given public debt of 248% of GDP, inflation (however generated) is a solid net positive for Japan, boosting government revenue and reducing the fiscal deficit &amp; public debt/GDP ratios. </li>
<li>The depreciated Yen (at a 14-year low at end-June) is a boon for exports and import-competing manufacturers. Despite Kuroda's jawboning, the Yen is likely to stay weak, boosting Japan's manufacturers. </li>
<li>The equity market is trading at 14.1x, far below its 10-year mean PE of 21.3x. The dominance of exporters should bolster index earnings. Japan will be a winning equity bet. </li>
</ul>


Given public debt of 248% of GDP, inflation (however generated) is a solid net positive for Japan, boosting government revenue and reducing the fiscal deficit &amp; public debt/GDP ratios. 
The depreciated Yen (at a 14-year low at end-June) is a boon for exports and import-competing manufacturers. Despite Kuroda's jawboning, the Yen is likely to stay weak, boosting Japan's manufacturers. 
The equity market is trading at 14.1x, far below its 10-year mean PE of 21.3x. The dominance of exporters should bolster index earnings. Japan will be a winning equity bet. 


Japan: The Winner from This Year's Spurt of Inflation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nisshin-seifun-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:640:1" rel="noopener">Nisshin Seifun Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oji-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11348:1" rel="noopener">Oji Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-shinyaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6634:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Shinyaku</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngk-insulators-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12580:1" rel="noopener">NGK Insulators</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil Group</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp Corp</a> have all underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> over the last 3-4 months.</li>
<li>The underperformance could lead to adjustments in global passive portfolios and liquidity events on some of the stocks.</li>
<li>Short interest has started to increase and there could be more pre-positioning yet to come over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>



Nisshin Seifun Group, Oji Holdings, Nippon Shinyaku, CyberAgent Inc, NGK Insulators, Lixil Group and Sharp Corp have all underperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) over the last 3-4 months.
The underperformance could lead to adjustments in global passive portfolios and liquidity events on some of the stocks.
Short interest has started to increase and there could be more pre-positioning yet to come over the next few weeks.


Japan - Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting Stocks

<ul>
<li>The review period for a bunch of indices ended early last week and the announcement of the changes will be made in the next few weeks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hydro-lithium-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8293:1" rel="noopener">Hydro Lithium (101670 KS)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nice-information-service-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20236:1" rel="noopener">Nice Information Service Co (030190 KS)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY)</a> at the close on Monday.</li>
<li>There have been big net inflows into China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan focused ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The review period for a bunch of indices ended early last week and the announcement of the changes will be made in the next few weeks.

Hydro Lithium (101670 KS) will replace Nice Information Service Co (030190 KS) in the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY) at the close on Monday.
There have been big net inflows into China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan focused ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, STAR50, NIFTY NEXT50, SF Holding

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.</li>
<li>In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.</li>
<li>Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.</li>
</ul>


Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.
In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.
Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.


Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> rallied +27% in the first 6 months of 2023. 6 months closed up, July closed (barely) down. The index can rise further in Aug/Sep.</li>
<li>If August is down, a LONG opportunity: look at support prices between 32391 and 30600,  good probability to see the market going higher from there.</li>
<li>If rallying in August, Nikkei could rise between +1.73% (33745) and +3.29% (34265). Continuation of the rally into September could reach higher prices but will encounter resistance at +8.29% (35922).</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rallied +27% in the first 6 months of 2023. 6 months closed up, July closed (barely) down. The index can rise further in Aug/Sep.
If August is down, a LONG opportunity: look at support prices between 32391 and 30600,  good probability to see the market going higher from there.
If rallying in August, Nikkei could rise between +1.73% (33745) and +3.29% (34265). Continuation of the rally into September could reach higher prices but will encounter resistance at +8.29% (35922).


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Japan: The Winner from This Year's Spurt of Inflation

13 months ago, Japan was attractive as inflation had returned but wages had not started rising, but were eventually expected to. Now a wage...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Japan - Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting Stocks

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that have underperformed the NKY over the last few months and that could lead to a liquidity event due to the...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, STAR50, NIFTY NEXT50, SF Holding

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to...

Steno Research

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

MONTHLY Trend Pattern Analysis of the Nikkei 225 Index: after 6 months up in a row and +27% gains, where is the index going next? Find support...

Nico Rosti