Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> is proposing to take 79.66%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oishi-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17370:1" rel="noopener">Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB)</a> private by a voluntary Delisting Offer. </li>
<li>The Offer price is THB 59/share, a 26.9% premium to last close. </li>
<li>This Delisting Offer requires a shareholder vote. Payment may occur sometime in August. </li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is proposing to take 79.66%-held Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB) private by a voluntary Delisting Offer. 
The Offer price is THB 59/share, a 26.9% premium to last close. 
This Delisting Offer requires a shareholder vote. Payment may occur sometime in August. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE) is looking to raise around US$650m in its upcoming Indonesia IPO. PGE is an Indonesian state owned power producer which utilizes geothermal energy to produce electricity.</li>
<li>PGE currently manages 13 Geothermal Working Areas with a total capacity of 1,877 MW, of which 672 MW is owned by it, while 1,205 MW is via joint operations.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company's performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>


Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE) is looking to raise around US$650m in its upcoming Indonesia IPO. PGE is an Indonesian state owned power producer which utilizes geothermal energy to produce electricity.
PGE currently manages 13 Geothermal Working Areas with a total capacity of 1,877 MW, of which 672 MW is owned by it, while 1,205 MW is via joint operations.
We have looked at the company's performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.


Pertamina Geothermal Energy IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Thai exports are likely to continue contracting in 2023E amid the economic slowdowns in key trading partners, namely the US and Europe, which are facing risk of recessions.</li><li>However, we view that China’s reopening may boost Thai exports to the country, which have declined for seven straight months, enabling them to eventually turn positive and thereby pushing up the overall export sector this year.</li><li>As for our investment view, we are bearish on export stocks, as they will not only be negatively impacted by the global economic slowdown but also by the appreciation of the baht, especially with the US economy at risk of a recession, as this would reduce the value of export revenue in baht terms for export-related firms.</li></ul>

Thai exports are likely to continue contracting in 2023E amid the economic slowdowns in key trading partners, namely the US and Europe, which are facing risk of recessions.However, we view that China’s reopening may boost Thai exports to the country, which have declined for seven straight months, enabling them to eventually turn positive and thereby pushing up the overall export sector this year.As for our investment view, we are bearish on export stocks, as they will not only be negatively impacted by the global economic slowdown but also by the appreciation of the baht, especially with the US economy at risk of a recession, as this would reduce the value of export revenue in baht terms for export-related firms.

Exports & Imports - Thai Exports in December Contracted by 14.6% YoY

<ul>
<li>Back on the 11 January, refiner/retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangchak-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15875:1" rel="noopener">Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)</a>'s board approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a> from Exxon Mobil.</li>
<li>The purchase price remains indeterminate (the indicative price is Bt8.84/share), based on a pricing adjustment mechanism as it relates to Esso's financial accounts at the close of the stake purchase.</li>
<li>Esso is down 17% since the announcement, and 37% from its recent (Oct-22) high. That seems excessive. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 11 January, refiner/retailer Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)'s board approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in Esso Thailand (ESSO TB) from Exxon Mobil.
The purchase price remains indeterminate (the indicative price is Bt8.84/share), based on a pricing adjustment mechanism as it relates to Esso's financial accounts at the close of the stake purchase.
Esso is down 17% since the announcement, and 37% from its recent (Oct-22) high. That seems excessive. 


Esso Thailand: Ignore Bangchak Corp’s Takeunder

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain the HOLD rating with a TP of Bt69.0 due to limited upside from the current share price. GPSC’s 3Q22 net profit dropped 52% QoQ to Bt331m (-82% YoY)</li>
<li>Weak 3Q22 performance GPSC reported 3Q22 net profit of Bt331.0m (-82% YoY, -52% QoQ), which was lower than our expectation.</li>
<li>The YoY and QoQ earnings drop were caused mainly due to a significantly higher natural gas (+110%YoY,+33%QoQ) and coal price (+236% YoY, +73% QoQ) which resulted in lower SPP margins.</li>
</ul>


We maintain the HOLD rating with a TP of Bt69.0 due to limited upside from the current share price. GPSC’s 3Q22 net profit dropped 52% QoQ to Bt331m (-82% YoY)
Weak 3Q22 performance GPSC reported 3Q22 net profit of Bt331.0m (-82% YoY, -52% QoQ), which was lower than our expectation.
The YoY and QoQ earnings drop were caused mainly due to a significantly higher natural gas (+110%YoY,+33%QoQ) and coal price (+236% YoY, +73% QoQ) which resulted in lower SPP margins.


GPSC : Rising Gas Prices Dragged 3Q22 Earnings

Thailand

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd. (GPSC) provides utilities services. The Company generates and distributes electricity, steam, and processed water. GPSC serves customers in Thailand.

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd (GPSC TB)

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Global Power Synergy Company Ltd (GPSC TB)

ThaiBev To Take Oishi Group Private

ThaiBev is proposing to take 79.66%-held Oishi Group private by a voluntary Delisting Offer. Assuming completion on the 23 August, I'd buy around...

David Blennerhassett

Pertamina Geothermal Energy IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

Pertamina Geothermal Energy is looking to raise around US$650m in its upcoming Indonesia IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

Exports & Imports - Thai Exports in December Contracted by 14.6% YoY

Thai exports are likely to continue contracting in 2023E amid the economic slowdowns in key trading partners, namely the US and Europe, which are...

Krungthai XSpring

Esso Thailand: Ignore Bangchak Corp’s Takeunder

Without a quantum shift in Esso's fundamentals over the next 6-8 months, this is a takeunder. A 17% fall is excessive. Shareholders should ignore...

David Blennerhassett

GPSC : Rising Gas Prices Dragged 3Q22 Earnings

We maintain the HOLD rating with a TP of Bt69.0 due to limited upside from the current share price. GPSC’s 3Q22 net profit dropped 52% QoQ to...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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